AMD - Assymetrical Triangle - Resolution to $62.50 or $47.50?
0. AMD looks to resolve the asymmetrical triangle soon;
1. Maybe a consolidation and continuation pattern;
2. Looking for a strong move either above or below $52.50 (Current Oscillation Range);
3. Looking for a move towards $47.50 and a re-test, or a re-test of the highs at $59.25;
4. Looking for a strong move, on strong volume.
5. More to follow, but we have been neutral (Selling Calls against our AMD stock, as we don't see a lot of 'immediate' upside - This is neutral for us), since just before the Memorial Day Long Weekend. We are looking for not just AMD, but the Market to decide about 3100 on the S&P, and possibly making a run at 3400 and $62.50
on AMD. Also, we could see a run below 2950 on the S&P, and a re-test of the $47.50 standing, but a $49.11 retest would be more likely.
6. Looking at about 72 percent chance of resolution to the upside and a run at $57.50, if we can stay above the resistance line. We provide more analysis later.
7. We have had great luck on the weekly covered calls in the $52.50 range against our longer terms account;
8. We believe this is consolidation and then we go higher, but so many factors to take into account, including the ratcheting up of trade tensions with China, Second Wave, the issues with TSM and Taiwan, Hong Kong, and once again a wall of worry against the backdrop of unlimited Fed QE is quite interesting.
We are seeing weakness in semiconductors over the past few weeks, and the social unrest hasn't taken a toll yet, but consumer confidence could really sink us in the next little while. We are watching the consumer closely for clues to the next move, and watching the following:
- Housing Sales in 20 Countries;
- Pawnshop Reports by District in 20 Countries;
- Credit Markets, Deferrals, Credit Line Reductions, and Defaults;
- Banks and Associated Data;
- Government Stimulus and Timelines;
- Close Observance of the Labour Market and Workers Return;
- Continued Social Unrest in Terms of Economy and Re-opening;
- Trustee and Bankruptcy Pipelines and Business Levels;
- Changes to Credit and Housing Markets in Terms of Accessibility and Who Gets;
- Covid-ID Therapeutics, Vaccines, Timelines, and Second Wave vs Sars 2002 / 2003 (June 2003 Disappearance Theory);
- Hong Kong;
- Rising China / U.S. Tensions;
- Chinese Agriculture Purchases;
- Chinese Currency Pricing;
- Many Other Factors;
9. We are currently not advising any new AMD positions, and selling calls against your existing position, but be careful should we sprint to the upside or downside, you may sacrifice profits on the calls, or not have enough protection to the downside, should this market correct.
0. We are also seeing rising wedges on many names like AAPL, GOOG, MSFT, and most of the names that sold off today, when the Nasdaq hit a new intraday ATH.
1. We think we will retest the highs on the Nasdaq, and go higher; We are sitting on cash as well, as we do expect a correction and have some names on our shopping list. We have about a 60/40 equities/cash allocation, for just such a summer pullback, as we took SOME profits on many names from the
March 21-23 Low that we caught on many names like LULU, NVDA, AMD, INTC, MU, and many others.
2. Stay tuned.
- drchelsea
1. Maybe a consolidation and continuation pattern;
2. Looking for a strong move either above or below $52.50 (Current Oscillation Range);
3. Looking for a move towards $47.50 and a re-test, or a re-test of the highs at $59.25;
4. Looking for a strong move, on strong volume.
5. More to follow, but we have been neutral (Selling Calls against our AMD stock, as we don't see a lot of 'immediate' upside - This is neutral for us), since just before the Memorial Day Long Weekend. We are looking for not just AMD, but the Market to decide about 3100 on the S&P, and possibly making a run at 3400 and $62.50
on AMD. Also, we could see a run below 2950 on the S&P, and a re-test of the $47.50 standing, but a $49.11 retest would be more likely.
6. Looking at about 72 percent chance of resolution to the upside and a run at $57.50, if we can stay above the resistance line. We provide more analysis later.
7. We have had great luck on the weekly covered calls in the $52.50 range against our longer terms account;
8. We believe this is consolidation and then we go higher, but so many factors to take into account, including the ratcheting up of trade tensions with China, Second Wave, the issues with TSM and Taiwan, Hong Kong, and once again a wall of worry against the backdrop of unlimited Fed QE is quite interesting.
We are seeing weakness in semiconductors over the past few weeks, and the social unrest hasn't taken a toll yet, but consumer confidence could really sink us in the next little while. We are watching the consumer closely for clues to the next move, and watching the following:
- Housing Sales in 20 Countries;
- Pawnshop Reports by District in 20 Countries;
- Credit Markets, Deferrals, Credit Line Reductions, and Defaults;
- Banks and Associated Data;
- Government Stimulus and Timelines;
- Close Observance of the Labour Market and Workers Return;
- Continued Social Unrest in Terms of Economy and Re-opening;
- Trustee and Bankruptcy Pipelines and Business Levels;
- Changes to Credit and Housing Markets in Terms of Accessibility and Who Gets;
- Covid-ID Therapeutics, Vaccines, Timelines, and Second Wave vs Sars 2002 / 2003 (June 2003 Disappearance Theory);
- Hong Kong;
- Rising China / U.S. Tensions;
- Chinese Agriculture Purchases;
- Chinese Currency Pricing;
- Many Other Factors;
9. We are currently not advising any new AMD positions, and selling calls against your existing position, but be careful should we sprint to the upside or downside, you may sacrifice profits on the calls, or not have enough protection to the downside, should this market correct.
0. We are also seeing rising wedges on many names like AAPL, GOOG, MSFT, and most of the names that sold off today, when the Nasdaq hit a new intraday ATH.
1. We think we will retest the highs on the Nasdaq, and go higher; We are sitting on cash as well, as we do expect a correction and have some names on our shopping list. We have about a 60/40 equities/cash allocation, for just such a summer pullback, as we took SOME profits on many names from the
March 21-23 Low that we caught on many names like LULU, NVDA, AMD, INTC, MU, and many others.
2. Stay tuned.
- drchelsea