NASDAQ:AMRS came up on my stock screener as a likely candidate for a long bounce. The 14 day RSI was below 30, and the stock was currently sitting 5% above it's 20 day low. There are other ways of identifying a bounce, but this way is just as good as any other.
I started digging into why that may be and came across a sour earnings report after a positive spike in volatility from a news story from Feb 5 2019. The earnings report was a huge surprise negative (again*), and it looks like we can ride the wave of the rebound to 2.40 or 3.00, depending on your risk targets.
NASDAQ:AMRS previously was trading sideways until Novemeber of last year when a surprise negative earnings report came out. Since then, the MACD has been diverging upwards until that last earnings upset. This stock has a history of 5-10 day bull runs following a bounce. Watch for the ceiling mid to late next week.
I started digging into why that may be and came across a sour earnings report after a positive spike in volatility from a news story from Feb 5 2019. The earnings report was a huge surprise negative (again*), and it looks like we can ride the wave of the rebound to 2.40 or 3.00, depending on your risk targets.
NASDAQ:AMRS previously was trading sideways until Novemeber of last year when a surprise negative earnings report came out. Since then, the MACD has been diverging upwards until that last earnings upset. This stock has a history of 5-10 day bull runs following a bounce. Watch for the ceiling mid to late next week.
Trade active:
Purchased at 2.04
Trade closed manually:
Sold at 2.24, probably will buy again.
Trade active:
Got in at 2.31 and again at 2.29 and ready for that 2.40 to hit.
Trade closed: stop reached:
Got stopped out at 2.30.
Trade active:
Got back in at 2.17
Comment:
Stock up to 2.70 man it feels good to be a gangster.
Trade closed: target reached:
Sold at 2.50, a 17% profit in one day.
Comment:
I am all set trading here. It was my intent to sell between 2.40 and 3.00, and I have done that.
Comment:
I still think that there is a little fire left in this. We are seeing a calm before the storm right now. Two lawsuits have been announced against AMRS, and there is talk of dilution of shares from the original owners who may want to offload. I don't see it that way. 2.00 is a strong support level, and today will not be the day it breaks.
Comment:
Got back in at 2.08, just couldn't resist.
Comment:
Comment:
About to hit 2.18 - a key resistance level.
Trade active:
Got out at 2.10 and back in at 2.13.
Comment:
Broke 2.18 resistance, yet volume is dropping.
Trade closed manually:
Sold at 2.17
Comment:
TRADING SUMMARY:
Bought at 2.04, sold at 2.24, +0.20 profit, +9.8% return.
Bought at 2.31, sold at 2.29, -0.02 loss, -0.87% loss.
Bought at 2.17, sold at 2.50, +0.33 profit, +15.2% return.
Bought at 2.08, sold at 2.10, +0.02 profit, +0.96% return.
Bought at 2.13, sold at 2.17, +0.04 profit, +1.99% return.
Win/Loss Ratio: 4:1
Reward/Risk Ratio: ((9.8 + 15.2 + 0.96 + 1.99)/4) / 0.87 ~= 8:1
Total Return (if reinvested): 1.098 * 0.983 * 1.152 * 1.0096 * 1.0199 ~= 1.28x
Yearly Return (if strategy repeated): 1.28*260/5 ~= 66.6x
Notes: Everything about this is unusual. 28% in 5 trading days is grossly unheard of as a consistent strategy. A Win/Loss ratio of 4:1 is usually only possible with heavy statistical analysis. A Reward/Risk ratio of 8:1 is a bit overly cautious and not wholly accurate as a stop loss since I set sell limits and watched the market instead of setting stops.
Bought at 2.04, sold at 2.24, +0.20 profit, +9.8% return.
Bought at 2.31, sold at 2.29, -0.02 loss, -0.87% loss.
Bought at 2.17, sold at 2.50, +0.33 profit, +15.2% return.
Bought at 2.08, sold at 2.10, +0.02 profit, +0.96% return.
Bought at 2.13, sold at 2.17, +0.04 profit, +1.99% return.
Win/Loss Ratio: 4:1
Reward/Risk Ratio: ((9.8 + 15.2 + 0.96 + 1.99)/4) / 0.87 ~= 8:1
Total Return (if reinvested): 1.098 * 0.983 * 1.152 * 1.0096 * 1.0199 ~= 1.28x
Yearly Return (if strategy repeated): 1.28*260/5 ~= 66.6x
Notes: Everything about this is unusual. 28% in 5 trading days is grossly unheard of as a consistent strategy. A Win/Loss ratio of 4:1 is usually only possible with heavy statistical analysis. A Reward/Risk ratio of 8:1 is a bit overly cautious and not wholly accurate as a stop loss since I set sell limits and watched the market instead of setting stops.