Otradehouse

AMZN to fail a breakout?

NASDAQ:AMZN   Amazon.com
Amazon tested ATH back in late April after 10 months of trading in a sideways range. Price is trying to breakout to new ATH, which in turn would imply much higher move to the upside.

Short story: I think breakout will happen, but most likely will be a bluff.

Long story:

I expect price will breakout on high volume and very long candle (on 1 or 2 hr chart). I also expect a stall shortly after, maybe around $3700ish. Possibly stay at that level for a short while and come back to $3300ish. Essentially it would form sort of head and shoulders with left shoulder being April’s high, head being false breakout being head.
Once right shoulder forms around $3500ish, we should see price heading back to $3000 or lower.

These analysis are solely based on similarities in price action of AAPL (refer to my previous post), when Apple stock tried to make new ATH back in January of this year. If chart starts to deviate significantly from AAPL chart, these analysis can be scratched.

If this plays out as described above, that could fit into recent developments. Powell indicated interest rates hikes, but since they are in 2023, equity markets initial response is very favorable. Money is rotating back into techs and growth stocks. This can be just wrong/fake initial reaction, just to be reversed shortly after.

Watching this one closely.
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