lauralea

ABC Bullish Earnings 8-9 BMO

NYSE:APD   Air Products and Chemicals, Inc
APD formed a cup and handle previously and made a good run to it's top at 304.47. Long term, slightly bumpy uptrend noted on monthly.

Price fell but not quite to the previous handle low. Short interest is low and NV is high. APD is consolidating for the last few weeks and seems to be in "wait" mode. There is resistance over price. The structure that price is in at the moment formed after a downtrend brought it here. Hesitant to call it anything at this moment although it is making higher lows. A bear pennant looks more like a symmetrical triangle and a bear flag has trendlines that are more parallel like a channel down. Ascending triangles, as any triangle can, break to the downside or the upside and are neutral until price breaks a trendline. Earnings will put price where Mr. Market intends it to be.

APD recently had a switch at the CFO position in their company which many consider negative until things fall in to place. From what I read their is a moderately bearish sentiment on APD right now. This does not mean that they will do awful at earnings . There are a lot of misses in their history including last quarter. I plan to watch this one as I have owned it during cup and handle and I like the stock. I like it at the right price and did well with it the last time I traded it. Entry level means a lot though on how well one does with a security.

I am not a fan of buying before earnings most of the time, especially as of late. Some sell stocks they own if earnings are approaching. I guess you have to go with your gut. Does not really matter as I did not see this until just now and earnings will be over by the time the market opens on Monday. I will either be bumbed out or relieved I did not buy it yet. LOL I can watch it and pick it up possibly at a lower price at a later date. Who knows?

Earnings can be considered an event pattern. Half of securities with a positive earnings surprise (and positive market reaction) peak in less than 2 weeks on average. Positive earnings surprises leading to a gain work best in a bull market. Bad earning surprises (or good earnings with a bad market reaction) can bottom out in less than a week depending on market conditions. If price gets stuck down there and this week is prolonged in to weeks or months, then many look at selling especially if bear flags or bear pennants appear. If earnings are received poorly (be it a hit or a miss) and price gaps down, then maybe look at how tall the gap is (the taller the gap is, the more bearish that gap can become) and look at the candle price closed at the gap down. Dead cat bounces can also occur after a gap down where price reaches up to close the gap only to fall again.

No recommendation.

Mr. Market can be irrational. Sometimes everything seems to be interpreted positively, then the very next day that this can change and everything is interpreted negatively. I suppose no one can accurately predict the weather, but I can know if it is raining today (o: