APPS looking like it has room to rocket up to $30, but I could also see it pulling back to $23 area.
Comment:
As suspected, dotted centerline broken before options expiry. Suspect announcement of new October 16th options played a roll in the price drop (bulls may be opting to sell puts, rather than buy shares at the moment).
We may continue trading in the bottom of the channel, or we might bounce back above dotted centerline. Regardless, I expect that the general trajectory will continue.
We may continue trading in the bottom of the channel, or we might bounce back above dotted centerline. Regardless, I expect that the general trajectory will continue.
Comment:
Looks like we are seeing a trend similar to 8/7.
Comment:
Played out as expect. I'm very happy I sold my 8/21 $25 calls when I did, but I'm down a bit on my 9/18 $30c. It was honestly kind of scammy for them to release the 10/18 options on the same date that other options expire; it looks like market manipulation.
Per the Nasdaq.com article: "The put contract at the $25.00 strike price has a current bid of $1.65. If an investor was to sell-to-open that put contract, they are committing to purchase the stock at $25.00, but will also collect the premium, putting the cost basis of the shares at $23.35 (before broker commissions). To an investor already interested in purchasing shares of APPS, that could represent an attractive alternative to paying $29.20/share today."
My 9/18 $30c are looking like a risky play, but I believe we will continue to follow the pattern; my guess is that we will have another red day next week and continuing the same trajectory in bottom half of the channel.
Two days ago (8/19) Simply Wall St. posted an article (available on Yahoo) calculating the intrinsic value of the company based on FCF -- that article is simply ridiculous, and I wish I could comment directly on it. The author probably knew that the conclusions were disingenuous, which is why there is no option to comment. Using FCF to estimate the value of this particular company will be inaccurate and their estimates of growth ignore the facts -- (1) the company has no debt and the model used (straight FCF and not FCFE ot FCFF) will inherently undervalue companies with low or no debt, and (2) they predict a 33% increase in free cash flow in 2022 (apparently the "analyst" chose to ignore that FCF went from -$1045 in 2019 to +$26532 in 2020, and did not factor in the recent distribution partnerships and acquisition of mobile-posse).
Now that this stock has gotten more attention, it appears that there are people trying to manipulate it (i.e. disingenuous articles, suspicious timing of new option release. . .)
Per the Nasdaq.com article: "The put contract at the $25.00 strike price has a current bid of $1.65. If an investor was to sell-to-open that put contract, they are committing to purchase the stock at $25.00, but will also collect the premium, putting the cost basis of the shares at $23.35 (before broker commissions). To an investor already interested in purchasing shares of APPS, that could represent an attractive alternative to paying $29.20/share today."
My 9/18 $30c are looking like a risky play, but I believe we will continue to follow the pattern; my guess is that we will have another red day next week and continuing the same trajectory in bottom half of the channel.
Two days ago (8/19) Simply Wall St. posted an article (available on Yahoo) calculating the intrinsic value of the company based on FCF -- that article is simply ridiculous, and I wish I could comment directly on it. The author probably knew that the conclusions were disingenuous, which is why there is no option to comment. Using FCF to estimate the value of this particular company will be inaccurate and their estimates of growth ignore the facts -- (1) the company has no debt and the model used (straight FCF and not FCFE ot FCFF) will inherently undervalue companies with low or no debt, and (2) they predict a 33% increase in free cash flow in 2022 (apparently the "analyst" chose to ignore that FCF went from -$1045 in 2019 to +$26532 in 2020, and did not factor in the recent distribution partnerships and acquisition of mobile-posse).
Now that this stock has gotten more attention, it appears that there are people trying to manipulate it (i.e. disingenuous articles, suspicious timing of new option release. . .)
Trade active:
Bam. Nice scam wick bounces off the bottom of the channel. Dumped some 9/21 30c at the bottom for a yuge loss, wiping most of last weeks gains off, but the push to $40 continues.
Comment:
Today's volume: 10,338,394.
Average volume: 3,020,453.
Average volume: 3,020,453.
Comment:
Maybe.
Based on the 2 Hour MACD, I still think there could be a strong downward break (breaking the dotted centerline of the channel) today or tomorrow before 8/21 options expire followed by another few weeks pushing price to 30 and beyond.