High probability trade back to channel bottom?

I'm expecting a long move on this pair soon but the current set up indicates a high probability short trade back to the channel bottom. The long trade could happen now without one more move down so do not jump into a trade - wait to see if it breaks down. If we get a bullish break wait for a correction before getting involved.

I'll update my analysis as price develops so remember to follow to receive them. You can also follow updates via twitter (link from my TV profile)

Always wait for an entry set up before risking your money.

This is not investment advice - it is purely for educational and discussion purposes.
Your Ideas, comments and questions welcome

Good luck Steve Nixon

Comment:

Well that was interesting. We had a push down just enough to look short then a immediate long break out. Fortunately I was asleep or I could have been caught out by this move. Anyway wait for the correction before looking for a long trade entry set up.

Comment:

Here is an alternate scenario - we may still be in this descending channel in which case we may still get the short trade. We now wait to see what shape develops over the next day or so.