Kevin_Zhang
Short

AUDJPY Bearish Shark, 3.6 Risk to Reward

OANDA:AUDJPY   Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen
Hi everyone,

AUDJPY has just confirmed a bearish shark harmonic pattern on the 15-minute timeframe with a 0B retracement of 0.886.

The potential reversal zone (PRZ) is comprised of 3 ratios:
2.0 AB projection at 79.136
0.886 0B retracement at 79.112
2.618 alternate AB=CD at 79.090.

Stop loss is set at the 1.13 0B projection, or 79.389.
Take profit is set at two levels, management and final.
The management level is the 0.50 CD retracement, or 78.619.
The final level is the 0.886 CD retracement, or 78.220.

Overall risk to reward ratio for this trade is 3.6.

The terminal price bar has also formed, confirming all three ratios.

Looking at major timeframe analysis, the 4-hour timeframe shows a strong resistance trendline formed since the 5th of February. The PRZ forms near this trendline , serving as a further confluence of a possible reversal.

RSI has also reached overbought territory on both the 15-minute and 1-hour at the terminal price bar, indicating an overbought state of the pair.

As always, observe further price action to ensure whether or not a reversal may happen before entering a trade!

Thanks for reading,
Kevin
Trade active: Hey everyone,

Make sure to keep in mind that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will be releasing meeting minutes in around 15 minutes. Make sure to keep track of the results of the minutes. Here is what we should watch for:

Bearish tints or comments on the economy: AUDJPY likely to fall lower, REMAIN in position

Positive comments on the economy in a conflict of recent rate cuts: AUDJPY to rise, EXIT position.

If you aren't into reading the minutes, make sure to keep watch of price action in minor timeframes such as the 5-minute to keep track of immediate reactions instead. Make sure to keep an active position on this, as we are on a relatively short timeframe so reactions to this high-impact news could be quite sudden.

Good luck,
Kevin
Trade active: Hey everyone,

Minutes came out with mostly negative tints and sentiment on the economy as a whole.

Therefore, I will be remaining in a short positioning with the same stop-loss.

-Kevin
Trade active: Price has reached the management take profit level!

I've moved stop-loss to break-even. Depending on price action beyond this point, I will either be continuing with my full position towards the final take profit or take a 50% partial profit. However, for now, I am continuing with my full position due to a likely change in trend from today's fundamental news along with the already confirmed reversal from the PRZ.

Thanks for reading everyone!
Kevin
Trade closed: target reached: Hi everyone,

I did decide to take partial profit at the management level and so secured a net profit, but price has reverted back to the break-even stop loss.

Regardless, some profit is better than no profit!

Thanks for following this idea,
Kevin
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