anilmangal
Short

AUDJPY understanding structure and trading the BIG MOVES!!

FX:AUDJPY   Australian Dollar/Japanese Yen
35993 173 552
Hi Guys, as many of you already know catching the impulse is the key to success. For you to do that understanding the structure and how it behaves is the important. Of course you can use a dozen different indicator but they will give one small win and a dozen loses. Don't believe me go check it for yourself.
We are expecting a down move on AUDJPY             so if all goes as expected we will be in the sell.
For Updates on this and more set your profile to give you instant notification when I post.

Trade with care
Thank you for your support.
Comment:
snapshot
Comment:
snapshot
Comment: Stopes out so now i am waiting for next trade setup.
snapshot
Comment: Possible way this could develop.
snapshot
Comment:
snapshot
Comment:
snapshot
Comment: Another sell setup, hope this one goes. Lost one , one breakeven and going for the next one.
snapshot
Comment: I am waiting for break and consolidation before any sell!!
Comment: 240 view
snapshot
Comment: The Big picture view
snapshot
Comment: Ok Guys, cool it down. The world is still a nice place regardless of all the noise.
snapshot
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCmvABDWwbqRvh0QGAf-86_Q/videos
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/ProwaveTrader
Training : add to skype mangal457
Nice call Anil! Sell the end of C
+2 Reply
Thx for sharing Anil!
+1 Reply
Im really learning a lot from you
+4 Reply
Thanks you Ani, great chart.
Reply
I can't understand this one fully. can someone or Anil please explain which impulses we're interpreting as which wave numbers. are we taking the impulse from June 2015 to June 2016 as wave A? Sorry if this is a stupid question.
+2 Reply
judderod yatinsardana
At a quick glance it looks like Anil is considering the low of this chart (72.483) as the beginning of a minor degree impulse up to the blue line (81.501). Wave A then ends around 76.000 and wave B is identified with the upward yellow line between the blue arrows. However a larger degree pattern is also playing out which suggests the potential for downside to retest the lower trendline of the larger downtrend (not drawn).
+1 Reply
schakim PRO judderod
@judderod, I realize that coming in 15 days later give you the advantage of a different perspective, but even looking at that old chart I see it slightly different. The leg up from 72.483 to the 76 area, is just wave 1 in what will complete wave A at 81.516, then wave B down followed by wave C up where we are now. The question is just _where_ in wave C we are? As we broke above end of wave A at 81.516 I would expect more upside in this one, at least to 82.78 but more likely all the way up to 83.35 area, which would produce a proper zigzag. It may not play out that _clean_ though, but expecting more upside anyway.

Besides, I have a little difficulty to fancy this Yen strength all of a sudden, still waiting for some clear catalyst for it to really take hold, but that's all my opinion, oc.
+1 Reply
Sounds great will do thanks
Reply
Thank You Anil. What Do You think about NZDJPY ?
Reply
very clear explanation, thanks Anil
+2 Reply
uaauuuuuu!!!
Reply
If that is correct USDJPY will and all JPY Pairs will Break the Low Again????
Reply
Very similar pattern as USDJPY , on 1 hr TF both have some upside move at present they are riding a 3 wave then will follow 4 and finally wave 5 at that point I will be looking to go Short
Reply
thanks for note
Reply
Sir
any views on Nifty
Reply
Sir
is it possible for you to give any view on the Nifty
Reply
Very useful information! Patience is key
Reply
It seems that it rises, it is not possible to do this operation ?. Thanks i'm new at this
Reply
No clue how he is counting wave. We can have impulsive wave on upside also
+1 Reply
It's more likely to make a consolidation pattern and then impulsive wave upside (imo). But anil is surely better..... I will wait and not jump in this trade
Reply
trades set ups are amazing on this aud jpy and aud usd ...problem is that the election spikes will mess up with the Sl .Thanks Sir Anil
snp500 is fire and on BE
+3 Reply
Thank you.
+1 Reply
I think it is time now? Isn't it?
+3 Reply
Jor4hub mette
Waiting on confirmation is a good idea.. as most people will try long lol I.e support and resistance traders
Reply
derby Jor4hub
really risky to trade right this moment; s/r traders getting sucked in anticipating a Clinton win; greed pushing prices higher; herd mentality taking over...
Reply
Jor4hub derby
I'll take this RR
Reply
Perhaps wait out a consolidation period. Those were some pretty hefty legs up the past several hours.
+1 Reply
Bang
Reply
Anil your prediction was right, it just dropped 450 pips. Was because of the US election of course but the fact that u had the directional bias way before the mews was relevant is amazing
+1 Reply
LOL the election has nothing to do with it , but I guess some people just wouldn't get it .
+9 Reply
anilmangal PRO anilmangal
EURUSD went UP , AUDUSD went down , USDCAD went UP , what has the US election got to do with it?
+6 Reply
do you think itl still come down\? or did i miss opportunity
Reply
kay.el2 anilmangal
I guess thats the direction it had to take...Wow! what prediction! 500pips in less than 24hrs
Reply
You´re right. Only USD/USD went sideways :))))
Reply
ivn96 anilmangal
@anilmangal, Dollar , Euro, Yen, Swiss Franc are funding currencies, i.e. carry traders will borrow in currency that has low yield, and invest in risky assets : Aussie, Kiwi, Loonie, Peso,etc. When most of the big fund managers,hedge funds are positioned for certain outcome and it does not come true, what you would do is to sell your risky assets and fund back your funding assets . I have spent time in university studying finance, and this is what answer you would except to receive. Now, this does not give us a clue where the price will be after the dust settles , we do not know how will big market participants position themselves. I do not like this type of explanation of what happened , as not all traders are carry traders, and different investors have different outlook,etc. Therefore instead of trying to infer the direction, I stick to the chart, as it is actually the only place to see the nearly-full information incorporated. I have made a mistake, again, not to wait for the correction, as it is naturally to happen, and now I have a rather big floating loss, but I am sticking with that trade..
+1 Reply
mlbo ivn96
@ivn96, interesting!
Reply
TheBanker anilmangal
@anilmangal, interesting stance
Reply
Mametsa2 anilmangal
I must say your level of confidence is inspiring sir. I'm a newbie trader from South Africa. Took some time to listen to your interview about waves. Your the reason why i'm up right now. Surfing the internet reading everything that has to do with Elliot wave , recognising the impulse leg and "your secret" identifying hidden divergence
+1 Reply
vbekker PRO Mametsa2
@anilmangal is there any chance that your interview has a transcript? I am deaf, and would love to read more about elliot waves!
+1 Reply
sick
Reply
Sir, do you think it is still go south? Thank you for your great forecast!!! :)
+3 Reply
update?
+4 Reply
I hope audjpy will go down when Trump won lost
Reply
Thx Anil for update!
Reply
thank you Anil. Halil
Reply
Hi Mr. mangal, what do you think about this? would love your feedback... thanks
Under Pressure
Reply
nicely done mate
Reply
Where is the stop and take profit levels on this trade if executed anilmangal?
Reply
Thank You Anil
Reply
Thank you Anil! This is the second moving like Auguest 2015 the renminbi's moving. In this case, UJ is testing 10 months SMA 106.21 and a fall.
Reply
So master anil, you still think audjpy will finish running 5 wave?
Reply
Good day Anil, great job man. Can i know whats the TP point you suggest ?
Reply
There is m idea which support yours !!!! :D
[AUDJPY][TRUE UPDATE]WIN WIN situation. Astonishing RR. K+S+B=T.
Reply
I'm in with this one, i had great success with a couple of anils setups, hope you nail this one Mister!!!
+1 Reply
Bear flag looks to be beginning to setup on the 15. Still early to completely conclude, but looking good thus far.
+1 Reply
Kumail PjMiz
@PjMiz, Agreed. Saw a minor break, now flag forming
+3 Reply
Anil, thanks for your ideas. Please could you explain a flag?
Reply
inkwell maksheetal
@maksheetal, just form and break now
Reply
maksheetal inkwell
@inkwell, thanks for the info!
Reply
Interesting on how you analyze trade set ups bro. Glad to follow you.
Reply
adnil, will this sell setup still be valid with this consolidation??
Reply
@SreveGhae, If you are already in the sell you should have a stop. If you are not then don't sell now .
+1 Reply
SreveGhae anilmangal
@anilmangal, OK , THANKS MAN!
Reply
MarkSterensohn anilmangal
@anilmangal, at which level?
Reply
target to long 81.977 now?
Reply
It broke upwards, now what happens?
Reply
Kumail cpozzer
@cpozzer, Hmm, yea ...and its almost breaking the high :s
Reply
cpozzer Kumail
@Kumail, I got out of it, waiting for more information on what is gonna happen
Reply
Kumail cpozzer
@cpozzer, Good idea. I'm still in it, until it breaks that original high ...here's hoping it turns
Reply
cpozzer Kumail
@Kumail, 81.98?
Reply
Kumail cpozzer
@cpozzer, Ya - looks like it'll hit it :(
Reply
Kumail Kumail
Closed :( ...some losses. Ah well, win some you lose some.

Good profit if this was a buy order, lol
Reply
@Kumail, thanks for info too. :)
Reply
Hi mate, are we ready to sell his double top you think?
Reply
broke the top but I believe the impulse up will trigger down move
Reply
if you traded this pair without a confirmation.. how would you adjust now Anil? @anilmangal
Reply
@boy, who said it was trader without confirmation? are you following the updates?
+3 Reply
boy anilmangal
@anilmangal, sorry refreshed right before you updated. thank you.
Reply
Thank you for the update
Reply
Out of Channell, now, looks like b/o am shorting 8140, thanks Ani.
Reply
snapshot


there is fibonacci 50 level at 82.40 at monthly chart. i sold from there Mr. Anil
Reply
not sure how accurate these waves are?
Reply
thanks for the share!
Reply
Oh man, if only I held on ..wouldn't have SL. It dropped huge
Reply
@Kumail, never ever make the mistake to think that way! Better to use your strategy to re enter the trade if the will go in the direction you expect to go
Reply
Kumail anilmangal
@anilmangal, Hmm, you're absolutely right. I guess the "if only" could also make me end up losing a lot more. Thanks, appreciate your solid advice! Looking forward to joining your course soon, to learn strategy!
Reply
mlbo Kumail
@Kumail, have a trade plan, enter the trade with a sl and do not widen it. proper money management (dont risk more than 1% of your trading money, or maybe up to 5% if you are having an excelent great perfect rock solid setup)
Reply
Sir , there's breakout of the up- trendline on M15, isn't it?
Reply
i must say thank you..!!! i learn a lot from your analyse
Reply
I just don't understand why you keep using 15 minutes chart. For me, that does not mean a lot.
Reply
senejani.ali PRO watsonzou26
@watsonzou26, because of that big moves (2 big candles we need to use 15m timeframe to see the chart better. Anil seldom uses any timeframe smaller than H1.....
+1 Reply
watsonzou26 senejani.ali
@senejani.ali, If you use bigger time-frame, this pair is quite bullish clearly, i don't know why master anil still think it will go down. He looks quite sure it will. Not offence here.But i am wrong quite often.
Reply
So your update mean, this setup is alive again, sir?
Reply
JayNathanLai AndiWilly
@AndiWilly, probably a pull back for the accumulation to down?
Reply
For those wondering about Anil's wave counting, take a look at this basic guide on Elliott wave theory https://goo.gl/TaZUUE

You need to know the basics to understand Anil's basic theory. Waves develop in fractals, so in other words you can see wave patterns developing within bigger patterns, in different timeframes. Look for 5 wave impulsive structures, followed by a three wave correction structure. I believe @anilmangal prefer to use to basically look for three wave structures, but sometimes fives as well. It's a good and understandable way to look at waves since perhaps one of the biggest errors Elliott wave counter do, is mix corrective structures with impulsive structures. Developing a good sense of determinding wave structures requires experience. Anil obviously got a lot of it as mostly his predictions are correct:)
Reply
watsonzou26 The_Observer
@The_Observer, I am not good at counting waves, but pattern was telling me this pair was very bullish 4 days ago. Why you guys keep trying selling short? Please note that the downtrend was broken.
Reply
The_Observer watsonzou26
@watsonzou26, I haven't had any good look at this pair lately, and my reply above was just for general purposes. So I cant really comment on the wave counting. A general tip is to learn Elliot's golden rules and stick to them. Afterwards use idea's here on tradingview to confirm your predictions. And last, please don't forget that in the end trading is speculation. No one can predict the weather tomorrow for sure, neither the price of a stock. As soon as any trade breaks any of your set rules, you should take the loss and exit.
Reply
@anilmangal Any Update sir ?
Reply
Sir Update
Reply
my sl is slightly higher, and i am still in the sell.
Reply
patience is a virtue!
Reply
I am learning from you a lot, you help me to understand big picture of market, thank you
Reply
I am still this trading, but according to the first setup we should exit, any ideas?
Reply
@cpozzer, channeling up so could break top before the down
Reply
cpozzer anilmangal
Reply
+1 Reply
bk_sj anilmangal
@anilmangal, HETAKUSO
Reply
watsonzou26 anilmangal
@anilmangal, Hi Master Anil, I am very curious what make you keep thinking this pair will go down? Any details? Much appreciated in advance.
+1 Reply
cpozzer anilmangal
The trend line is broken on the 1hr chart, lets see what happens now.
Reply
Hi Anil. If it is going to break the top, before falling, then there is no need for a stop?
+1 Reply
mlbo Dewald206
@Dewald206, let it break the top and after that look for entry short. these entrys will give you a stopploss level on which you can/must calculate your risk and your lot size. Any trade like this miserable short we might got iton right now before the break of the top should / must have a stopploss (maybe some 10-20 pips above the last top) otherwise how did you calculate your risk and how did you manage your money?
Reply
@mlbo, Already shorted with stop above high. But after Anil's statement of breaking top and then falling i'm not sure where to put stop.
+1 Reply
mlbo Dewald206
@Dewald206, do nt touch the stop f your first trade. in fact never touch the stoploss of any trade eccept from making it tighter / smaller. and then: next trade next stopploss-calculation. everything else is complicated and just distracting.
Reply
mlbo Dewald206
@Dewald206, stopploss always above the invalidation-point where the initial tradingidea makes no longer sense. so it is hard to find a stopploss for a trade that is expected to break a top first and then go down. breaking the top does not mean that it breaks and reverses after that quickly...
Reply
we are only going up.... here is what i posted a week ago.... we broke 81.50
Under Pressure

Reply
frankdukejunior FXPRO_TREND_TRADER
@FXPRO_TREND_TRADER, It is going up because it is possible that they have made a mistake on the wave count. They are going for higher degree wave C and the problem is that Wave C is just like wave 1 and can look impulsive and we have no clue. if it hits wave 4 higher degree then we are sure that our wave count is wrong but until then!!! It looks to me like a C too but if it is wave 1 this thing is going to go up. Also, they have not entered the trade yet!!!! so not to worry.
Reply
FXPRO_TREND_TRADER frankdukejunior
@frankdukejunior, im not worried :) its just what the chart says, even if u check on Anil's update as one of them says its sell is invalid if it breaks the top. I dont see any indicator says sell. 2nd JPY is uptrend...... BoJ: additional easing on the way, Trump poses risks of Yen appreciation. i hope you get what im trying to say. good luck
Reply
frankdukejunior FXPRO_TREND_TRADER
@FXPRO_TREND_TRADER, Thanks!!! I am both a tech and fund trader I do not agree with only fund or only tech traders; Also, the chart states it will be a sell setup does not say when to sell.
Also, I think Trump poses a risk to economy also a rate hike means move towards less risky business... I hope you get what I am saying also...
Reply
cpozzer FXPRO_TREND_TRADER
@FXPRO_TREND_TRADER, Why should we give credit to your setup and not @anilmangal ? I Stick with anils initial setup with a tight SL
+1 Reply
Jor4hub cpozzer
@cpozzer, agreed so far this is looking good
Reply
an update would be much appreciated Mr Anil. Best regards, get well soon.
+3 Reply
Jor4hub morgand377
@morgand377, waiting for the impulse and flag I'm in with tight sl
Reply
This trade Moonji poyi!!!
Reply
This is going really well now Anil. Thanks! Hope you're recovering well!
Reply
snapshot


Anil what do you think of this?
Reply
Looking to add to shorts on completion of C..

snapshot
+2 Reply
Any updates on this pair?
Reply
Thank you for your update sir! :)
Reply
Again? Why?
Reply
Dudes. Wave=move=swing=leg=whatever you fancy. It's just a move which not necessarily has to do anything with elliot's waves.
Reply
Thanks for great charts.I always follow your charts for good information.Can you message me if you decide to Trade AUD/JPY?

I'm only testing on Demo so no worries :)

Thankfully yours,
Paul.
Reply
@anilmangal I see right(I am new to these jobs and I'm trying to learn)

snapshot
Reply
Anilmangal thanks.
Now the idea is a retest of the trend line now, right?
snapshot
Reply
michele_laino michele_laino
@anilmangal on the H4 I see an inverted hammer and a shooting star.
This could tell us that the price will become to go down.
Has someone agree with my view?
Thanks
Reply
michele_laino michele_laino
@anilmangal, sorry, the inverted hammer is an hanging man also.
snapshot
Reply
Sir you have to confess. That's bad trade idea. I gues people which follow you have lost a lot of money if their position size wasn't small
+6 Reply
schakim PRO MarkSterensohn
@MarkSterensohn, Dude I think Anil's charts are pretty clear with both if's and but's, and it's just a setup, which about something that potentially can happen, I see nothing here that says "take this trade now", only "I will sell or buy, if...". If you are stupid to just "follow" blindly without calling up on your own judgment, then you have no one but yourself to blame if you lose money. No one can get the market right all the time, or maybe not even often, but from what I have seen here Anil belongs to the upper belt. But there is no such thing as a free lunch, and if you think that you well deserve to pay the extra penalty to learn the lesson.

I would have respected your comment more if you had brought something constructive to the table, like how you saw it and from what I can see there seem to have been only 5 ppl (so far) that took a loss on this setup.
+6 Reply
saro2018 MarkSterensohn
@MarkSterensohn, what an BS comment!! he always says these charts will give you only a sense of market directions, this is NOT a trade call. And by the way, if their position size is not appropriate to their accounts it is not his fault! This comment shows that you dont have any sense on how trading works...
+3 Reply
anilmangal PRO MarkSterensohn
@MarkSterensohn, https://ewtradinggroup.slack.com/files/anil/F356RGY4Q/pasted_image_at_2016_11_22_09_12_pm.png
+1 Reply
nazzeem anilmangal
@anilmangal, So I were looking for some direction with AUDJPY and came across this old post, but I cant get in to the link https://ewtradinggroup.slack.com/files/anil/F356RGY4Q/pasted_image_at_2016_11_22_09_12_pm.png. Is that for you traders only? I`m also one of your trader or am I not? How do I get access to ewtradinggroup.slack.com?
Reply
"understanding structure and trading the big move" is a big title for such progress, the difference between the original idea and the last update is huge, from big move down to either sideway, up or down, maybe you should stick to "possible structure" sort of title, this is similar to usdcad and nzdusd each update moves away from the original idea
+3 Reply
schakim PRO NidalDarawsheh
@NidalDarawsheh, As if this type of reversals are something rare, especially with AUD, and I don't see a problem with the title, the technical setup is perfectly valid, there just haven't been any signal to take the trade yet, nor has Anil said so. But the potential for a big move is (or was) certainly there. I posted a bit higher up in a comment to a commend done 15 days ago what I saw happening, and it pretty much happened. Unfortunately I missed the trade because my PC crashed and it took ages to get back, and now I am evaluating if I believe this one still would like to go down, or more correct if it would like to do so now... but my next call may be wrong as well.
+1 Reply
@schakim,
== my view is short, see my idea, I have no issues with that.
== I was talking about the structure that keeps changing with every update and the 3 invalid sell setups ( anil: Another sell setup, hope this one goes. Lost one , one breakeven and going for the next one.) not to mention todays setup
== same thing applies to NZDUSD and USDCAD the original idea keeps changing, take the NZD first looking to long 5, then it kept changing now he is looking to buy C, that is Misunderstanding the structure


Reply
schakim PRO NidalDarawsheh
@NidalDarawsheh,
== 1. I agree, expecting a short bunch as a possible invitation to a short, possibly all the way up to a double top. I see this last leg as wave 5 of C, and now a small correction, which may come in the form of a flat - because AUD is a really stubborn currency that just don't like to go down and always seems to have an extra bucket load of fuel to trow in ;-)
== 2. I don't see them as invalid, but failed and that happens all the time and with situations like this I would say they are really educating, so the title fits well to me.
== 3. I have not looked at the other pairs, they may be different. But I would say that these are really tricky pairs to trade, and should be stayed away from if not comfortable with th e hazard. And it's wise to trade small, especially here.
Reply
@schakim, who said that i copied this trade? or my position was big or small, i was talking about the cocky title, if you understand structure and look closely at the 3 pairs original ideas and the update you will see that his understanding of the structure changes with every update, now he is referring to all the comments as "noise" in his last update and at the same time acknowledging that it might go up to 84, well the noise he referring to was expecting 84 from 2 weeks ago, while you guys trying to short it 3 times the "noise was longing it from 79.60 taking your money from
Reply
schakim PRO NidalDarawsheh
@NidalDarawsheh, and where did I say you copied this trade or in any way imply anything about position size? You said "my view is short" and I agreed with that, but now you say you been long all the way up from 79.60 taking our money... Well it wasn't mine, as I am still waiting for my entry, if it will come. Anyway, let's cool it, I have no intentions to heat things up - I have sauna for that.
Reply
@schakim, short weekly TF long at hourly TF check my idea from 10 days ago, looking to short @ 84, what i meant is while he tried to short 3 times people who understand structure were buying the dips (which he considered breakouts), sorry for saying "taking you money" this came after he referred to comments as noise, my frustration with people who market courses to novice trader ruining this community with flooding the website with their ideas and updates and making money is not about arrows its about entry/stop. again sorry if you were offended
Reply
schakim PRO NidalDarawsheh
@NidalDarawsheh, no dude, I wasn't offended, nop. While enjoying TW now for a while I haven't really started to enjoy the community part until very recently, so I don't have a good or established view of what's going on and who does this and that. I know @anilmangal offers a course a few times a year as an entrance to his trading group, but I haven't got the impression that he pushes it on novices. To the contrary, I find his approach with the weekly free webinar and possible trading setups here very generous and I see nothing wrong with also letting us know about it in that context. I don't see any evil in him, and I can tell you I have a good eye for that from many years experience.
Reply
Wow, there's my first two lessons in Wave Theory - Both trades went MASSIVELY wrong Anil.
re-thinking your strategy mate - it seems you were proven wrong 3 times on the one move -

I'll check out some of your other moves, but these jpy moves were really really bad.
+6 Reply
saro2018 The_Duke
@The_Duke, what do you expect? 100% winning rate? such a dumb comment.
+2 Reply
The_Duke saro2018
@saro2018, no, I don't expect 100%.
Dumb comments are easy to make arent they @saro2018

I was pleased with Anil's advice to wait for consolidation before entering the trade, which I expressed in another post.

This advice prevented losses anyway. It's not about that.

My comments related to what seems to be an insistence to find a short trade even when it's already gone wrong twice.