anilmangal
Short

AUDJPY understanding structure and trading the BIG MOVES!!

FX:AUDJPY   Australian Dollar/Japanese Yen
34383 172 532
a month ago
Hi Guys, as many of you already know catching the impulse is the key to success. For you to do that understanding the structure and how it behaves is the important. Of course you can use a dozen different indicator but they will give one small win and a dozen loses. Don't believe me go check it for yourself.
We are expecting a down move on AUDJPY             so if all goes as expected we will be in the sell.
For Updates on this and more set your profile to give you instant notification when I post.

Trade with care
Thank you for your support.
a month ago
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a month ago
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a month ago
Comment: Stopes out so now i am waiting for next trade setup.
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a month ago
Comment: Possible way this could develop.
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24 days ago
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22 days ago
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16 days ago
Comment: Another sell setup, hope this one goes. Lost one , one breakeven and going for the next one.
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16 days ago
Comment: I am waiting for break and consolidation before any sell!!
16 days ago
Comment: 240 view
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16 days ago
Comment: The Big picture view
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16 days ago
Comment: Ok Guys, cool it down. The world is still a nice place regardless of all the noise.
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YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCmvABDWwbqRvh0QGAf-86_Q/videos
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/ProwaveTrader
Training : add to skype mangal457
aibek
a month ago
Nice call Anil! Sell the end of C
+2 Reply
Abozahra PRO
a month ago
Thx for sharing Anil!
+1 Reply
Choux
a month ago
Im really learning a lot from you
+4 Reply
Smiley8080
a month ago
Thanks you Ani, great chart.
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yatinsardana
a month ago
I can't understand this one fully. can someone or Anil please explain which impulses we're interpreting as which wave numbers. are we taking the impulse from June 2015 to June 2016 as wave A? Sorry if this is a stupid question.
+2 Reply
judderod yatinsardana
a month ago
At a quick glance it looks like Anil is considering the low of this chart (72.483) as the beginning of a minor degree impulse up to the blue line (81.501). Wave A then ends around 76.000 and wave B is identified with the upward yellow line between the blue arrows. However a larger degree pattern is also playing out which suggests the potential for downside to retest the lower trendline of the larger downtrend (not drawn).
+1 Reply
schakim judderod
16 days ago
@judderod, I realize that coming in 15 days later give you the advantage of a different perspective, but even looking at that old chart I see it slightly different. The leg up from 72.483 to the 76 area, is just wave 1 in what will complete wave A at 81.516, then wave B down followed by wave C up where we are now. The question is just _where_ in wave C we are? As we broke above end of wave A at 81.516 I would expect more upside in this one, at least to 82.78 but more likely all the way up to 83.35 area, which would produce a proper zigzag. It may not play out that _clean_ though, but expecting more upside anyway.

Besides, I have a little difficulty to fancy this Yen strength all of a sudden, still waiting for some clear catalyst for it to really take hold, but that's all my opinion, oc.
+1 Reply
AspyreXit
a month ago
Sounds great will do thanks
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LukaszWicinski
a month ago
Thank You Anil. What Do You think about NZDJPY ?
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Jimmy212
a month ago
very clear explanation, thanks Anil
+2 Reply
Paul-FXTC PRO
a month ago
uaauuuuuu!!!
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Paul-FXTC PRO
a month ago
If that is correct USDJPY will and all JPY Pairs will Break the Low Again????
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FerminNunez
a month ago
Very similar pattern as USDJPY , on 1 hr TF both have some upside move at present they are riding a 3 wave then will follow 4 and finally wave 5 at that point I will be looking to go Short
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Bob_B_Northman
a month ago
thanks for note
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laxmikant_74
a month ago
Sir
any views on Nifty
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laxmikant_74
a month ago
Sir
is it possible for you to give any view on the Nifty
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Jor4hub
a month ago
Very useful information! Patience is key
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Dankofx
a month ago
It seems that it rises, it is not possible to do this operation ?. Thanks i'm new at this
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munirnadir
a month ago
No clue how he is counting wave. We can have impulsive wave on upside also
+1 Reply
munirnadir
a month ago
It's more likely to make a consolidation pattern and then impulsive wave upside (imo). But anil is surely better..... I will wait and not jump in this trade
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fxbruno
a month ago
trades set ups are amazing on this aud jpy and aud usd ...problem is that the election spikes will mess up with the Sl .Thanks Sir Anil
snp500 is fire and on BE
+3 Reply
MustafaKeles
a month ago
Thank you.
+1 Reply
mette PRO
a month ago
I think it is time now? Isn't it?
+3 Reply
Jor4hub mette
a month ago
Waiting on confirmation is a good idea.. as most people will try long lol I.e support and resistance traders
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derby Jor4hub
a month ago
really risky to trade right this moment; s/r traders getting sucked in anticipating a Clinton win; greed pushing prices higher; herd mentality taking over...
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Jor4hub derby
a month ago
I'll take this RR
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PjMiz
a month ago
Perhaps wait out a consolidation period. Those were some pretty hefty legs up the past several hours.
+1 Reply
Jor4hub
a month ago
Bang
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Mametsa2
a month ago
Anil your prediction was right, it just dropped 450 pips. Was because of the US election of course but the fact that u had the directional bias way before the mews was relevant is amazing
+1 Reply
anilmangal TOP Mametsa2
a month ago
LOL the election has nothing to do with it , but I guess some people just wouldn't get it .
+9 Reply
anilmangal TOP anilmangal
a month ago
EURUSD went UP , AUDUSD went down , USDCAD went UP , what has the US election got to do with it?
+6 Reply
SandroCaro17 PRO anilmangal
a month ago
do you think itl still come down\? or did i miss opportunity
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kay.el2 anilmangal
a month ago
I guess thats the direction it had to take...Wow! what prediction! 500pips in less than 24hrs
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sketchmaster PRO anilmangal
a month ago
You´re right. Only USD/USD went sideways :))))
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ivn96 anilmangal
a month ago
@anilmangal, Dollar , Euro, Yen, Swiss Franc are funding currencies, i.e. carry traders will borrow in currency that has low yield, and invest in risky assets : Aussie, Kiwi, Loonie, Peso,etc. When most of the big fund managers,hedge funds are positioned for certain outcome and it does not come true, what you would do is to sell your risky assets and fund back your funding assets . I have spent time in university studying finance, and this is what answer you would except to receive. Now, this does not give us a clue where the price will be after the dust settles , we do not know how will big market participants position themselves. I do not like this type of explanation of what happened , as not all traders are carry traders, and different investors have different outlook,etc. Therefore instead of trying to infer the direction, I stick to the chart, as it is actually the only place to see the nearly-full information incorporated. I have made a mistake, again, not to wait for the correction, as it is naturally to happen, and now I have a rather big floating loss, but I am sticking with that trade..
+1 Reply
mlbo ivn96
a month ago
@ivn96, interesting!
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TheBanker PRO anilmangal
a month ago
@anilmangal, interesting stance
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Mametsa2 anilmangal
a month ago
I must say your level of confidence is inspiring sir. I'm a newbie trader from South Africa. Took some time to listen to your interview about waves. Your the reason why i'm up right now. Surfing the internet reading everything that has to do with Elliot wave , recognising the impulse leg and "your secret" identifying hidden divergence
+1 Reply
vbekker PRO Mametsa2
a month ago
@anilmangal is there any chance that your interview has a transcript? I am deaf, and would love to read more about elliot waves!
+1 Reply
Forexer11
a month ago
sick
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AndiWilly
a month ago
Sir, do you think it is still go south? Thank you for your great forecast!!! :)
+3 Reply
ivn96
a month ago
update?
+4 Reply
MustafaKeles
a month ago
I hope audjpy will go down when Trump won lost
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FXSPORT
a month ago
Thx Anil for update!
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ozcurumez
a month ago
thank you Anil. Halil
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Hi Mr. mangal, what do you think about this? would love your feedback... thanks
Under Pressure
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ezodisy
a month ago
nicely done mate
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Where is the stop and take profit levels on this trade if executed anilmangal?
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behroz1yas
a month ago
Thank You Anil
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Victor.Y.F
a month ago
Thank you Anil! This is the second moving like Auguest 2015 the renminbi's moving. In this case, UJ is testing 10 months SMA 106.21 and a fall.
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watsonzou26
a month ago
So master anil, you still think audjpy will finish running 5 wave?
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BDubair
a month ago
Good day Anil, great job man. Can i know whats the TP point you suggest ?
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BabasNumbaOne
a month ago
There is m idea which support yours !!!! :D
[AUDJPY][TRUE UPDATE]WIN WIN situation. Astonishing RR. K+S+B=T.
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cpozzer PRO
a month ago
I'm in with this one, i had great success with a couple of anils setups, hope you nail this one Mister!!!
+1 Reply
PjMiz
a month ago
Bear flag looks to be beginning to setup on the 15. Still early to completely conclude, but looking good thus far.
+1 Reply
Kumail PjMiz
a month ago
@PjMiz, Agreed. Saw a minor break, now flag forming
+3 Reply
maksheetal
a month ago
Anil, thanks for your ideas. Please could you explain a flag?
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inkwell maksheetal
a month ago
@maksheetal, just form and break now
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maksheetal inkwell
a month ago
@inkwell, thanks for the info!
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fcml
a month ago
Interesting on how you analyze trade set ups bro. Glad to follow you.
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SreveGhae
a month ago
adnil, will this sell setup still be valid with this consolidation??
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anilmangal TOP SreveGhae
a month ago
@SreveGhae, If you are already in the sell you should have a stop. If you are not then don't sell now .
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SreveGhae anilmangal
a month ago
@anilmangal, OK , THANKS MAN!
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MarkSterensohn PRO anilmangal
a month ago
@anilmangal, at which level?
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mette PRO
a month ago
target to long 81.977 now?
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cpozzer PRO
a month ago
It broke upwards, now what happens?
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Kumail cpozzer
a month ago
@cpozzer, Hmm, yea ...and its almost breaking the high :s
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cpozzer PRO Kumail
a month ago
@Kumail, I got out of it, waiting for more information on what is gonna happen
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Kumail cpozzer
a month ago
@cpozzer, Good idea. I'm still in it, until it breaks that original high ...here's hoping it turns
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cpozzer PRO Kumail
a month ago
@Kumail, 81.98?
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Kumail cpozzer
a month ago
@cpozzer, Ya - looks like it'll hit it :(
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Kumail Kumail
a month ago
Closed :( ...some losses. Ah well, win some you lose some.

Good profit if this was a buy order, lol
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maksheetal Kumail
a month ago
@Kumail, thanks for info too. :)
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fcml
a month ago
Hi mate, are we ready to sell his double top you think?
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TheTrader966
a month ago
broke the top but I believe the impulse up will trigger down move
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boy
a month ago
if you traded this pair without a confirmation.. how would you adjust now Anil? @anilmangal
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anilmangal TOP boy
a month ago
@boy, who said it was trader without confirmation? are you following the updates?
+3 Reply
boy anilmangal
a month ago
@anilmangal, sorry refreshed right before you updated. thank you.
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AndiWilly2nd
a month ago
Thank you for the update
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Smiley8080
a month ago
Out of Channell, now, looks like b/o am shorting 8140, thanks Ani.
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P.Action PRO
a month ago
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there is fibonacci 50 level at 82.40 at monthly chart. i sold from there Mr. Anil
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derby
a month ago
not sure how accurate these waves are?
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JoseNeto
a month ago
thanks for the share!
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Kumail
a month ago
Oh man, if only I held on ..wouldn't have SL. It dropped huge
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anilmangal TOP Kumail
a month ago
@Kumail, never ever make the mistake to think that way! Better to use your strategy to re enter the trade if the will go in the direction you expect to go
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Kumail anilmangal
a month ago
@anilmangal, Hmm, you're absolutely right. I guess the "if only" could also make me end up losing a lot more. Thanks, appreciate your solid advice! Looking forward to joining your course soon, to learn strategy!
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mlbo Kumail
a month ago
@Kumail, have a trade plan, enter the trade with a sl and do not widen it. proper money management (dont risk more than 1% of your trading money, or maybe up to 5% if you are having an excelent great perfect rock solid setup)
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Sir , there's breakout of the up- trendline on M15, isn't it?
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MarcusOishi
a month ago
i must say thank you..!!! i learn a lot from your analyse
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watsonzou26
a month ago
I just don't understand why you keep using 15 minutes chart. For me, that does not mean a lot.
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senejani.ali watsonzou26
a month ago
@watsonzou26, because of that big moves (2 big candles we need to use 15m timeframe to see the chart better. Anil seldom uses any timeframe smaller than H1.....
+1 Reply
watsonzou26 senejani.ali
a month ago
@senejani.ali, If you use bigger time-frame, this pair is quite bullish clearly, i don't know why master anil still think it will go down. He looks quite sure it will. Not offence here.But i am wrong quite often.
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AndiWilly
a month ago
So your update mean, this setup is alive again, sir?
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JayNathanLai AndiWilly
a month ago
@AndiWilly, probably a pull back for the accumulation to down?
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The_Observer
a month ago
For those wondering about Anil's wave counting, take a look at this basic guide on Elliott wave theory https://goo.gl/TaZUUE

You need to know the basics to understand Anil's basic theory. Waves develop in fractals, so in other words you can see wave patterns developing within bigger patterns, in different timeframes. Look for 5 wave impulsive structures, followed by a three wave correction structure. I believe @anilmangal prefer to use to basically look for three wave structures, but sometimes fives as well. It's a good and understandable way to look at waves since perhaps one of the biggest errors Elliott wave counter do, is mix corrective structures with impulsive structures. Developing a good sense of determinding wave structures requires experience. Anil obviously got a lot of it as mostly his predictions are correct:)
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watsonzou26 The_Observer
24 days ago
@The_Observer, I am not good at counting waves, but pattern was telling me this pair was very bullish 4 days ago. Why you guys keep trying selling short? Please note that the downtrend was broken.
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The_Observer watsonzou26
24 days ago
@watsonzou26, I haven't had any good look at this pair lately, and my reply above was just for general purposes. So I cant really comment on the wave counting. A general tip is to learn Elliot's golden rules and stick to them. Afterwards use idea's here on tradingview to confirm your predictions. And last, please don't forget that in the end trading is speculation. No one can predict the weather tomorrow for sure, neither the price of a stock. As soon as any trade breaks any of your set rules, you should take the loss and exit.
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danrindia
a month ago
@anilmangal Any Update sir ?
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Fox_
a month ago
Sir Update
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GamingZone
a month ago
my sl is slightly higher, and i am still in the sell.
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CajunXChange
24 days ago
patience is a virtue!
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BillyTuanNguyen
24 days ago
I am learning from you a lot, you help me to understand big picture of market, thank you
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amitbnl07
24 days ago
snapshot
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cpozzer PRO
24 days ago
I am still this trading, but according to the first setup we should exit, any ideas?
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anilmangal TOP cpozzer
24 days ago
@cpozzer, channeling up so could break top before the down
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cpozzer PRO anilmangal
24 days ago
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anilmangal TOP cpozzer
24 days ago
+1 Reply
bk_sj anilmangal
24 days ago
@anilmangal, HETAKUSO
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watsonzou26 anilmangal
24 days ago
@anilmangal, Hi Master Anil, I am very curious what make you keep thinking this pair will go down? Any details? Much appreciated in advance.
+1 Reply
cpozzer PRO anilmangal
23 days ago
The trend line is broken on the 1hr chart, lets see what happens now.
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Dewald206
24 days ago
Hi Anil. If it is going to break the top, before falling, then there is no need for a stop?
+1 Reply
mlbo Dewald206
24 days ago
@Dewald206, let it break the top and after that look for entry short. these entrys will give you a stopploss level on which you can/must calculate your risk and your lot size. Any trade like this miserable short we might got iton right now before the break of the top should / must have a stopploss (maybe some 10-20 pips above the last top) otherwise how did you calculate your risk and how did you manage your money?
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Dewald206 mlbo
24 days ago
@mlbo, Already shorted with stop above high. But after Anil's statement of breaking top and then falling i'm not sure where to put stop.
+1 Reply
mlbo Dewald206
23 days ago
@Dewald206, do nt touch the stop f your first trade. in fact never touch the stoploss of any trade eccept from making it tighter / smaller. and then: next trade next stopploss-calculation. everything else is complicated and just distracting.
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mlbo Dewald206
23 days ago
@Dewald206, stopploss always above the invalidation-point where the initial tradingidea makes no longer sense. so it is hard to find a stopploss for a trade that is expected to break a top first and then go down. breaking the top does not mean that it breaks and reverses after that quickly...
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we are only going up.... here is what i posted a week ago.... we broke 81.50
Under Pressure

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frankdukejunior FXPRO_TREND_TRADER
24 days ago
@FXPRO_TREND_TRADER, It is going up because it is possible that they have made a mistake on the wave count. They are going for higher degree wave C and the problem is that Wave C is just like wave 1 and can look impulsive and we have no clue. if it hits wave 4 higher degree then we are sure that our wave count is wrong but until then!!! It looks to me like a C too but if it is wave 1 this thing is going to go up. Also, they have not entered the trade yet!!!! so not to worry.
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FXPRO_TREND_TRADER frankdukejunior
23 days ago
@frankdukejunior, im not worried :) its just what the chart says, even if u check on Anil's update as one of them says its sell is invalid if it breaks the top. I dont see any indicator says sell. 2nd JPY is uptrend...... BoJ: additional easing on the way, Trump poses risks of Yen appreciation. i hope you get what im trying to say. good luck
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frankdukejunior FXPRO_TREND_TRADER
23 days ago
@FXPRO_TREND_TRADER, Thanks!!! I am both a tech and fund trader I do not agree with only fund or only tech traders; Also, the chart states it will be a sell setup does not say when to sell.
Also, I think Trump poses a risk to economy also a rate hike means move towards less risky business... I hope you get what I am saying also...
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cpozzer PRO FXPRO_TREND_TRADER
23 days ago
@FXPRO_TREND_TRADER, Why should we give credit to your setup and not @anilmangal ? I Stick with anils initial setup with a tight SL
+1 Reply
Jor4hub cpozzer
23 days ago
@cpozzer, agreed so far this is looking good
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morgand377
24 days ago
an update would be much appreciated Mr Anil. Best regards, get well soon.
+3 Reply
Jor4hub morgand377
23 days ago
@morgand377, waiting for the impulse and flag I'm in with tight sl
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Dinkan
24 days ago
This trade Moonji poyi!!!
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Kumail
22 days ago
This is going really well now Anil. Thanks! Hope you're recovering well!
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Ruben68
22 days ago
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Anil what do you think of this?
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Looking to add to shorts on completion of C..

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arwo14
18 days ago
Any updates on this pair?
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AndiWilly
16 days ago
Thank you for your update sir! :)
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watsonzou26
16 days ago
Again? Why?
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nhlevi
16 days ago
Dudes. Wave=move=swing=leg=whatever you fancy. It's just a move which not necessarily has to do anything with elliot's waves.
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Talos
16 days ago
Thanks for great charts.I always follow your charts for good information.Can you message me if you decide to Trade AUD/JPY?

I'm only testing on Demo so no worries :)

Thankfully yours,
Paul.
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mkocturk1995
16 days ago
@anilmangal I see right(I am new to these jobs and I'm trying to learn)

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michele_laino
16 days ago
Anilmangal thanks.
Now the idea is a retest of the trend line now, right?
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michele_laino michele_laino
16 days ago
@anilmangal on the H4 I see an inverted hammer and a shooting star.
This could tell us that the price will become to go down.
Has someone agree with my view?
Thanks
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michele_laino michele_laino
16 days ago
@anilmangal, sorry, the inverted hammer is an hanging man also.
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Sir you have to confess. That's bad trade idea. I gues people which follow you have lost a lot of money if their position size wasn't small
+6 Reply
schakim MarkSterensohn
16 days ago
@MarkSterensohn, Dude I think Anil's charts are pretty clear with both if's and but's, and it's just a setup, which about something that potentially can happen, I see nothing here that says "take this trade now", only "I will sell or buy, if...". If you are stupid to just "follow" blindly without calling up on your own judgment, then you have no one but yourself to blame if you lose money. No one can get the market right all the time, or maybe not even often, but from what I have seen here Anil belongs to the upper belt. But there is no such thing as a free lunch, and if you think that you well deserve to pay the extra penalty to learn the lesson.

I would have respected your comment more if you had brought something constructive to the table, like how you saw it and from what I can see there seem to have been only 5 ppl (so far) that took a loss on this setup.
+6 Reply
saro2018 MarkSterensohn
16 days ago
@MarkSterensohn, what an BS comment!! he always says these charts will give you only a sense of market directions, this is NOT a trade call. And by the way, if their position size is not appropriate to their accounts it is not his fault! This comment shows that you dont have any sense on how trading works...
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anilmangal TOP MarkSterensohn
16 days ago
@MarkSterensohn, https://ewtradinggroup.slack.com/files/anil/F356RGY4Q/pasted_image_at_2016_11_22_09_12_pm.png
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"understanding structure and trading the big move" is a big title for such progress, the difference between the original idea and the last update is huge, from big move down to either sideway, up or down, maybe you should stick to "possible structure" sort of title, this is similar to usdcad and nzdusd each update moves away from the original idea
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schakim NidalDarawsheh
16 days ago
@NidalDarawsheh, As if this type of reversals are something rare, especially with AUD, and I don't see a problem with the title, the technical setup is perfectly valid, there just haven't been any signal to take the trade yet, nor has Anil said so. But the potential for a big move is (or was) certainly there. I posted a bit higher up in a comment to a commend done 15 days ago what I saw happening, and it pretty much happened. Unfortunately I missed the trade because my PC crashed and it took ages to get back, and now I am evaluating if I believe this one still would like to go down, or more correct if it would like to do so now... but my next call may be wrong as well.
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NidalDarawsheh PRO schakim
16 days ago
@schakim,
== my view is short, see my idea, I have no issues with that.
== I was talking about the structure that keeps changing with every update and the 3 invalid sell setups ( anil: Another sell setup, hope this one goes. Lost one , one breakeven and going for the next one.) not to mention todays setup
== same thing applies to NZDUSD and USDCAD the original idea keeps changing, take the NZD first looking to long 5, then it kept changing now he is looking to buy C, that is Misunderstanding the structure


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schakim NidalDarawsheh
16 days ago
@NidalDarawsheh,
== 1. I agree, expecting a short bunch as a possible invitation to a short, possibly all the way up to a double top. I see this last leg as wave 5 of C, and now a small correction, which may come in the form of a flat - because AUD is a really stubborn currency that just don't like to go down and always seems to have an extra bucket load of fuel to trow in ;-)
== 2. I don't see them as invalid, but failed and that happens all the time and with situations like this I would say they are really educating, so the title fits well to me.
== 3. I have not looked at the other pairs, they may be different. But I would say that these are really tricky pairs to trade, and should be stayed away from if not comfortable with th e hazard. And it's wise to trade small, especially here.
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NidalDarawsheh PRO schakim
16 days ago
@schakim, who said that i copied this trade? or my position was big or small, i was talking about the cocky title, if you understand structure and look closely at the 3 pairs original ideas and the update you will see that his understanding of the structure changes with every update, now he is referring to all the comments as "noise" in his last update and at the same time acknowledging that it might go up to 84, well the noise he referring to was expecting 84 from 2 weeks ago, while you guys trying to short it 3 times the "noise was longing it from 79.60 taking your money from
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schakim NidalDarawsheh
16 days ago
@NidalDarawsheh, and where did I say you copied this trade or in any way imply anything about position size? You said "my view is short" and I agreed with that, but now you say you been long all the way up from 79.60 taking our money... Well it wasn't mine, as I am still waiting for my entry, if it will come. Anyway, let's cool it, I have no intentions to heat things up - I have sauna for that.
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NidalDarawsheh PRO schakim
16 days ago
@schakim, short weekly TF long at hourly TF check my idea from 10 days ago, looking to short @ 84, what i meant is while he tried to short 3 times people who understand structure were buying the dips (which he considered breakouts), sorry for saying "taking you money" this came after he referred to comments as noise, my frustration with people who market courses to novice trader ruining this community with flooding the website with their ideas and updates and making money is not about arrows its about entry/stop. again sorry if you were offended
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schakim NidalDarawsheh
16 days ago
@NidalDarawsheh, no dude, I wasn't offended, nop. While enjoying TW now for a while I haven't really started to enjoy the community part until very recently, so I don't have a good or established view of what's going on and who does this and that. I know @anilmangal offers a course a few times a year as an entrance to his trading group, but I haven't got the impression that he pushes it on novices. To the contrary, I find his approach with the weekly free webinar and possible trading setups here very generous and I see nothing wrong with also letting us know about it in that context. I don't see any evil in him, and I can tell you I have a good eye for that from many years experience.
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The_Duke
16 days ago
Wow, there's my first two lessons in Wave Theory - Both trades went MASSIVELY wrong Anil.
re-thinking your strategy mate - it seems you were proven wrong 3 times on the one move -

I'll check out some of your other moves, but these jpy moves were really really bad.
+6 Reply
saro2018 The_Duke
16 days ago
@The_Duke, what do you expect? 100% winning rate? such a dumb comment.
+2 Reply
The_Duke saro2018
16 days ago
@saro2018, no, I don't expect 100%.
Dumb comments are easy to make arent they @saro2018

I was pleased with Anil's advice to wait for consolidation before entering the trade, which I expressed in another post.

This advice prevented losses anyway. It's not about that.

My comments related to what seems to be an insistence to find a short trade even when it's already gone wrong twice.

I'm not new to trading by any means, I'm new to elliot wave.

In light of the 3 wrong calls on the one move I was saying I will be interested to review Anil's other trades using this methodology.

I'm comparing Anil's process to various other methods including ichimoku, guppy, fractals etc... all of which I have used. ... and I'm considering joining his trading group in February because I like the thought process behind Anil's methodology.

However, considering the insistence to trade in a direction that already went wrong twice before, as well as some very late changes after the moves had begun which changed the RR, this methodology lost a bit of its shine IMO. Hence my comments about my first lessons in this methodology.

As Anil has responded, the world didn't come to an end.
My views are my own and I'm equally entitled to express them as you guys are... presumably.
+2 Reply
schakim The_Duke
16 days ago
@The_Duke, nice to hear you took it like a man ;-) On a more serious side, I don't think Anil works really EW but more his own concept of waves and structure, which may has a good portion of EW in it - as I have understood it - but as I'm not in his trading group I cannot really tell for sure. I have been studying and using EW now for some time, with varying results, but it has certain pitfalls which is why I complement it with other techniques. No doubt EW at large has it right, but it doesn't mean trading it gives you a free lunch.

First of all, counting can really be tricky and often falls victim to subjectivity and I believe it simply takes time to develop an eye for it, some may need years others much less. Secondly, to judge and estimate when a wave is "done" and ripe for a turn can be as tricky, even if there are some "built in" mechanisms for this, more or less based on fib-levels, but how can you know if wave 3 will be 1.62 times wave 1 or 2.62 times, in advance? You can't. All you really can say, with greater certainty, is that 5 waves in one direction will be followed by 3 in the other, but, then you are back at this with getting the counting right... so no surprise lot's of people give up on EW even before they really got started, but it's just as with trading in general, you need to have patience or will become meat for the wolves.

This is also why I would like to claim that there is nothing "wrong" with Anil's calls here, he know it will come down, and most likely hard, but he as anyone else just cannot know when that will happen so he gives it a try when a suitable opportunity presents itself, to be sure he wont miss it. If you trade that way, in a sane proportion to your account that's really not a problem, because with such more you will make up for it many times ones the trade takes off. So keep it up, and don't lose faith because of some silly losses ;-)
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The_Duke schakim
16 days ago
@schakim, Exactly mate. My understanding (or lack thereof) of EW is that there are numerous ways to interpret the methodology. This led me to investigate Anil's process because he has identified a method whereby his students will all identify the same number of patterns and waves. That's all we're looking for really isn't it, consistency, not perfection.
It's this consistency that seems to go astray here, replaced by 'persistence' perhaps?
Anyway, I'm still encouraged with Anil's method and overall thought processes...
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BhaktaBasics The_Duke
15 days ago
@The_Duke, My views are exactly the same as yours on EW. It's crazy how many people post predictive charts with arrows and lines without actually detailing entry, target and SL (and therefore accountability). If the idea then turns out wrong the charts are changed with adjusted lines with more if/then statements and arrows (covering moves up and down). If the idea turned out correct the updates boast about 1000+ pips profit even though the market moved against them initially and no doubt took their SL out (again no accountability unless this detail is in the original idea). It's a win/win situation. Genius!
I'm naturally objective so usually treat most of the ideas on here with an open mind (I have noticed there are a lot of blind followers out there). I always ask myself "If someone has developed a method that really works, then wouldn't they be making tons of money for themselves and their family and sitting on an island somewhere exotic, rather than putting together and delivering training courses/personal tuition and charging people to share their knowledge?". The answer to this is obvious if you allow yourself to think with some logic rather than hope. I find the traders that openly share knowledge through conversation/webinars rewarding. There is sooooo much money out there to be made that we 'retail' traders should all be helping one another for FREE. As far as i'm concerned there is no holy grail for trading, just a lot of hard work using all the tools available to you and most importantly good money management. Finally, a little luck never goes astray!
PS I'm not talking about anyone specifically, my comments are general. Everyone here is trying to make money through trading. Some people have realised this isn't enough so have supplemented this with training/tuition. You just need to understand that they don't have the holy grail of trading, they're just businessmen/women trying to supplement their trading.
Happy trading all.
+2 Reply
The_Duke BhaktaBasics
15 days ago
@BhaktaBasics, Extremely well said Squire :)
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schakim BhaktaBasics
15 days ago
@BhaktaBasics, while basically agree with what you are saying, and you say it well, I just want to stress something when it comes to EW. EW is nothing but a tool/technique concerned with probability, and if you know your EW basics you are absolutely aware of this. Thus, the "charts with arrows and lines without actually detailing entry, target and SL" (and notice that I left out "predictive" in my quote) do not in anyway flack a lack of accountability as it just belongs to the built-in nature of this technique. In other words, if you trade based on someone else EW without a firm knowledge of what you are doing, you are just going a fools errand for yourself.

In other words, if you don't know and feel comfortable with EW as a trading tool, don't try to use it (except in paper trading), even if you get the count from a pro or you will guarantied blow your account. The main reason for this is that EW is as dynamic as the market, which also is the reason charts has to be updated as PA moves forward, and you always need to have an alternative count to fall back on, in case you are wrong. Most importantly though, never take a trade based on confirmation from just 1 tool/technique, due as you say there is no holy grail, but there are such things as the law of probability etc. so if 2 or even 3 different tools confirm your idea, it may be worth to take the risk. In the end, everyone has to be responsible for his/her own account, and there is no way around that.
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Revenue The_Duke
16 days ago
@The_Duke, you should use your strategy to trade things which has positive expectancy. This means not every trade will be a winning one but they'll make profit in the long run . Regardless of this , Anil is not posting trade calls . The thing is as a trader you don't always have time to look up on every chart . Anil is giving us the nicest R/R trades out there which you could look at and make an entry based on your strat if you are willing to trade the pair . Not arguing here . Just MO
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azshah The_Duke
16 days ago
@The_Duke, come on you should not take the trade if you don't like it simple as that. He has taken his time and posted his ideas here which should be appreciated. You want the guy to be 100% correct? Well that is not going to happen keep your R/R in check that is the only way you will be profitable at the end.
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abrar.ahmed1408
16 days ago
I see a lot of people criticizing Anil's last update. He clearly mentioned that he will sell only after it consolidates after breakout. I don't see any consolidation after the breakout and so it is not a sell for me according to Anil's instruction.
Don't understand what the fuss is about.

(Also, I am not a student of Anil's)
+3 Reply
watsonzou26
16 days ago