theforexcast

AUDJPY - Long Trading Idea on the 4h Chart.

Long
FX:AUDJPY   Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen
Introduction:

We have been long playing this range-bound channel, with fast moves fueled by news from both currencies, but mainly from AUD. We can see two bearish wedges forming with the second one being nearly-invalidated by reports that pushed AUD prices further up across the entire board. Price struggled above the main resistance and, as soon as it broke the dotted trendline, shorts were placed. Sudden bearish AUD news moved it down even further, and now we are preparing for price corrections and the reversal of the trend.

Although the idea is marked as a long, check below to see how we place our orders and our general strategy.

How to Proceed:

Price is already on extreme oversold levels on the RSI on the 4h charts. Our best guess here is that the correction will move it up a little, only to go down further and keep on the oversold readings until it reaches the support and/or reverses.

Both a long and a short were opened here. We think it will continue down and we will keep adding scaling long orders until it reaches support, when we expect a full bounce to the main resistance, with perhaps a breakout.

Take Profit:

We plan on closing our shorts by 77.700 levels. The longs have 80.000 and 80.500 as their main take profit targets. They can be dynamically changed, i.e., according to live price action, should circumstances change. The arrows and horizontal levels are great indicative, though.

Stop-loss (Invalidation of Analysis):

Our stop-losses here are 77.000.

Side-notes:

Please keep in mind that the markets have been reacting strongly to news these days, specially on smaller majors, such as the NZD and the AUD, which could create instability. We are trading the whole forex system here, not only a pair. These positions should be watched closely.

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