Fundamental, Technical, Predictive Analyses Review | $AUD $NZD

FX:AUDNZD   Australian Dollar / New Zealand Dollar
1900 52 13

I am re-posting this analysis in a new discussion thread, as we near a new trading month. I will cut/paste the analysis, as it reviews major bank FX positioning, technical analysis , and predictive/forecasting data.

All this coming up in the discussion thread next.

Thank you.

David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA

Twitter: @4xForecaster
19 DEC 2014 - Quick Note:

A tight SL defined at 1.09098 saved us from chasing a losing proposition. Until the fundamentals in gold and oil settle, AUDNZD should remain hands-off.

Keep in mind that deterioration of the Asian theater economy is likely to have a greater deleterious impact on $NZD, even though both $AUD and $NZD are falling under a broad commodity price slump.

The net outcome should be supportive of the $AUDNZD pair.

David Alcindor
+1 Reply
02 DEC 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
$AUDNZD - Discreet geo define R/S levels; 1.618 #fibonacci near-miss:

@tradingview | $AUD $NZD #RBA #RBNZ #forex

David Alcindor
+1 Reply
4xForecaster 4xForecaster

A slight correction was effected in this most recent H4 chart pertaining to the upper-most geometry, as follows:

David Alcindor
+3 Reply
IvanLabrie 4xForecaster
Very nice how fib clusters align with congestion areas. One could argue that you could find other key levels in the past, by taking fib extensions/retracements from said congestion areas.
In your chart the most frequent price in all those bars in the range aligns with the fib and not the extremes or the median of said range necessarily.
Would you say this is a good way of establishing which points to start fibonacci projections from and to?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster IvanLabrie
Hello @IvanLabrie - I am not sure I understand your question.

The square I have drawn are what I have called Nodes.

The nodes are a particular interest in the hidden geometries as they bring their core (50%- Fib) in line with prior levels, and projected potential R/S levels.

Other hidden geometries, called Nodules, have similar role in hidden geometries, but overall, they tend to conform to conventional technical tools, such as Fibonacci levels, basic market geometries, and standard patterns.

DId I answer your question in this short explanation?

IvanLabrie 4xForecaster
Sort of, I was referencing to using your 'nodes' in a similar fashion, but to look for other relevant fibonacci levels. Not to arrive at them from prior levels, since I don't know enough EW to find where to project fibs from.

I'm using Tim West's methodology, and these trading ranges you highlighted would be areas of price revolving around an accepted fair value level (at the time) from where you can project targets from, when price breaks out from the most frequent price.
It's interesting how this aligns with your charts.
(Tim doesn't use fib though)

In this chart I took a fib measurement between the low of the inside bar which coincides with the most frequent price in the lowest trading range, and the other end at a previous most frequen price level.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster IvanLabrie
@IvanLabrie - I am not sure what "fair value" means and I am not familiar with Tim West's methodology.

In any case, there are an infinite ways to dice the price action, so long as one uses the Fibonacci knife.

Based on this, price will remain tethered to inherent harmonic measures so long as the Golden Ratio remains its common denominator.

IvanLabrie 4xForecaster
Fair value is a market profile term, it would be the area around the most frequent price in a trading range such as those in the chart.

I was aiming at reducing the infinity of choices, of where to place the fibs with this idea. As you can see in my chart, the 1.414 level was respected, and I drew this fib between two of this aforementioned levels.


Your suggested fibonacci values seem to work REALLY well with this method.
02 DEC 2014 - Update:

Another downer for $NZD: Milk price fall for a third consecutive times. This is viewed as a $NZD bearish fundamental event, as it negatively impact the export revenue of the country:

$NZDUSD = Bearish

$AUDNZD = Bullish

David Alcindor

(Source: https://www.globaldairytrade.info/en/product-results/)
PIPFOLLOWER 4xForecaster
very good analise david. thank you.
+1 Reply
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