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$NZD Nears Bullish Shark Completion; Sees 5-0 Completion #forex

FX:NZDUSD   New Zealand Dollar/U.S. Dollar
Traders,

There is little question that the fundamentals have pulled the carpet from underneath this export-dependent economy, and that a slumping Asian theater demand will do nothing supportive for this currency.

However, on a technical basis, there is a possibility of a Bullish Shark reversal at the 0.81335 level. This pattern is often flanked with its acolyte, namely the 5-0 pattern, whose namesake points to a 50% retracement of the Shark conclusive swing.

Overlay of predictive/forecasting model has produced the following probable targets - listed in expected chronological visits:

1 - TG-1 = 0.81335 - 10 SEP 2014

2 - TG-Hi = 0.84838 - 10 SEP 2014

and

3 - TG-2 = 0.7866 - 10 SEP 2014


As indicated earlier this evening in the Forex Intel             Room (link: https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#xsmm44S00HaO5wCZ ):

"ANZ hit target on its $NZDUSD Short circa 0.82 (Medium-Term) at a profit of +400 pips"

This major bank's relief of its bearish pressure on the $NZD supposes that a lightening up of institutional weight combined with above proposed technical reasoning, may indeed provide the mechanical lift to see it rise to the defined targets above.

I will continue to use this chart to post $NZD-related charting and technical commentaries, including occasional Forex Intelligence on major banks' FX positioning from linked room above.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


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Twitter: @4xForecaster
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thanks david for this post
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
11 SEP 2014 - Forex Intel:

"Danske's limit order to Short $AUDUSD (Short-Term) got canceled "

This is tantamount to cancellation of a $USD long position - Prepare to see major USD crosses reflexively react to a possible BEARISH $USD push. Keep an eye on this possibility, especially here, as we approach our first target:

- TG-1 = 0.81335 - 10 SEP 2014

A BEARISH $USD would indeed provide the reversal mechanism necessary to rally back to the next forecast target: TG-Hi = 0.84838 - 10 SEP 2014.

Cheers,


David Alcindor

+2 Reply
fximperija
2 years ago
David, can't really say it's a shark, missed 113 AB-C preojection, although, the 88.6 looks like a support, and possible 5-0 node for a 50 fib ret. Than again, neither the potential shark, nor 5-0 met the basic criteria of 113.
snapshot
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fximperija 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Can't believe I was wrong for such a long time. Thanx for pointing this out.
snapshot
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO fximperija
2 years ago
You are welcome - I erased the original entry (there were simply too many typos).

Your comment is in reply to the comment I made earlier, which are now posted below.

Thank you for your humble understanding and flexibility of the mind.

David
Reply
fximperija 4xForecaster
2 years ago
:) Off topic: You intrigued me very much with the Euclidean models, so digging deep into the subject. If you have and I know you do, any reference you used regarding Non-linear Euclidean, please do let me know. . Thx in advance.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO fximperija
2 years ago
@fximperija, honestly, I am not sure what you are talking about in regards to reference you believe might be in my possession. A lot of what I have learned is self-taught from readings over the years, starting in College during my architectural research and trips, to the present, where I remain in constant state of predisposed learning about the occult, the odd and the twisted, all being one and the same, but read from different tolerating mind's eyes -

The Euclidean name I gave to my module is based on the Euclidean rule, which defines the smallest divisible component able to relate itself to all other larger shapes, and capable to maintain a same relationship across all shapes that sprung from it (at least, it''s my own geometry-based definition - Original definition is simply a series of axiom proving one simple line related to a larger set of lines, all the way up to complex geometries and algebraic expressions. In this manner, the Euclidean Module is a "geometric axiom", holding one simple 2-dimentional truth of itself, and yet defining the larger price action is proportion to itself.

Nodes and Nodules are not part of the Euclidean Modules, but would need to appear as support and proof of intrinsic correspondences between these shapes. I spent lots of brain-deadening hours peeling a chart into shapes, and the Euclidean module is what emerged from it.

There is no other knowledge in this head of mine, and no other purpose but to hold it for sharing sparingly, and on other occasion to hold a hat atop it.

David
+1 Reply
fximperija 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Alright mate, with your architectural background you lean more towards visual representation. I observe the visual from a mathematical stand point - geometry is visual representation of underlying mathematical expressions. Being a we developer I tend to look at numbers and various mathematical correlations , equations and expressions that has a geometric presentation as a result. What I was referring to is Non-linear Euclidean geometric, spaces and algebra. Everyone I know from the trading world is trying to predict upon past events while I'm trying to predict upon present events and finding the correlation between present and past events. The most sophisticated trading algorithms has been built on mathematical expectations and probability taking into consideration past and present events. Finding the right weight in evaluation of data is the key for more accurate prediction - data mining. The process of data evaluation has a result the decision support system.
+1 Reply
dojitrader 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Forgive the over simplification, but, as I read about the Euclidean rule,
a thought flashed into my mind that asked:
Isn't the trading axiom of "Broken resistance becomes support
and broken support becomes resistance" and as such targets the next
level of a larger degree a simple example of what you're expressing
in a more complex way ???
I ask because of all the complex ways of trading I've seen, simplicity
has always given me the best results. Perhaps that is because, after
A and B's in Algebra and Geometry, I hit a brick wall with Trig and Calculus.
As always, thanks for all your great dissertations, methodologies and
helpful explanations !!!!!!
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO dojitrader
2 years ago
@dojitrader - Doji, you are absolutely right about keeping it simple. However, the Euclidean Module I use looks at the smallest, simplest unit of momentum that starts a swing, and projects itself forward in simple repetitive pace.

I posted these ideas as "sharewares" but do not represent a safe or sound methodology for the everyday trader. In a way, this is simple curiosity about how intricately inter-related geometries are within the market - Here is a simple video I posted a while ago (1-2 years?) illustrating the Euclidean Module, and a Nodule, and a very simple correspondence they maintain with price action:

/users/dalcindo/folders/Camtasia%2520Studio/media/7abf7f47-417c-41f0-8a88-ac423191c908#

Here in this $AUDCHF, you will see the simple projection downward was able to define a reversal. Typically, these geometries remain consistent up to a third repetition, and thereafter, they might require Fib fractions of the EM - See the darkened numbers to the left of the field:

- https://www.facebook.com/photo.php%3Ffbid%3D10151490897500036%26amp%3Bset%3Do.383867671699611%26amp%3Btype%3D1

All for fun and mental snack.

David
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4xForecaster PRO fximperija
2 years ago
@fximperija - First, this is a Shark in its most exemplary form:


snapshot




The most common mistake made by the majority of traders based on the mistake of mis-naming the X-A-B triangle. On a pure market-geo basis, this is what I call the "Seed" of all patterns.

In the case of the Shark, the novice trader looks for a 113% reciprocal ratio by unduly stretching a Fibonacci scale from ZERO to Point-A, and then hunt for that 1.13-Fib level. This could not be further from the true point definition of the pattern.

INSTEAD, the Shark trader should focus attention to the SEED of the pattern, namely that X-A-B component, which rules this and all other geometric off-shoots (Bat, Crab, Gartley, ... etc).

Now, at the opposite end, there is reason to look for YET another 113-Reciprocal Ratio, which would be found at Point-C, and defined as the ZERO-A extension.

Hence, the formula for the Shark is as follows:

1 - Point B = 1.131 to 1.618 * XA

and

2 - Point-C = 1.131 * XA

Such as demonstrated in the following diagrams:


Chart-1: Determination of Point-B relative to 0X:
snapshot




Chart-2: Determination of Point-C relative to 0X:
snapshot



Note that Point-C does not have to reside based on its 1.131 * 0X expression. It is simply that IF Point-C was to adversely excurse to extension territories, it would need to answer to this proportional expression as a matter of approximate placement relative to at least two of the seed's points.

I hope this helps clarify the pattern for you.

If you need reference, I recommend looking into Scott Carney's books, which is what I have used as a source of verification before writing this explanation out, in case I needed to state this credential.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Remember that the X-A-B is the seed of all patterns, and all other point projections are sourced and maintain strict harmonic correspondence with this simple, but powerful triangular expression:

snapshot




There are TWO primordial/derivative patterns that I heed:

1 - The Shark/5-0

and

2 - The Bat/Crab

Any other pattern have greater occurrence in the charts, but less reliability, the Gartley being the most frequent pattern of them all.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
hello david what is zoar view on this pair now
Reply
4xForecaster PRO manijeh.kazemi.33
2 years ago
@manijeh.kazemi.33 - As per forecast. No change in prior analysis - David

snapshot
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kmk.msp 4xForecaster
2 years ago
@DAVID. Yes it is following the path you told as well as audnzd is going towards 0.5 fib retracemenet.
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO kmk.msp
2 years ago
Good. All is well. Birds are singing and Model is working. Thank you @kmk.msp - David
+1 Reply
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