UPDATE #1: ANALYSIS: AUDUSD: Reversal? Or More Downside To Go?

FX_IDC:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar
Remember this post from 5 days ago?

Well, prices have unfolded EXACTLY as I described it would and now it appears for all intents and purposes that wave 5 of the larger downtrend maybe OVER. If it is, then it is possible that we will see a MAJOR TREND CHANGE occurring!

MONTHLY CHART: AB=CD Pattern Also Completed
This MONTHLY chart I posted 5 days ago showed that an AB=CD pattern has also completed.

DAILY CHART - Larger POTENTIAL Bearish Cypher
I also posted this larger POTENTIAL bearish cypher on the DAILY TF in which I said that the C point of it had not been set yet. The recent low below 70 cents may now be the C point of that cypher . If price action does confirm that C point, then we may see prices head up in the CD leg of this cypher . ***NOTE*** This larger cypher IS NOT the same cypher as you see above in the main chart.
One word: LONG. I am already LONG at 70 cents as I have had standing orders sitting there for months just waiting to be triggered when prices reached 70 cents. So now I am expecting at the very least a large bullish reaction from here if not a major change in trend. Now, having said that, it is STILL possible for prices to still go lower possibly to the 60 cents level before a major trend change actually occurs. So although I am now bullish on this pair, I am keeping an eye out for the possibility that this move up may only be temporary.

Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals or trade calls here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade or ask for stop loss and take profit levels. Any SL or TP given on my trades are my own I have used for my trade and are not recommendations for you to use. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!

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Just posted a setup on this, monthly gartley and 4hr butterfly - already long looking for final target around 0.7641
EverythingForex dionvuletich
Hate to disagree with you but that monthly gartley for me is not valid. Gartley needs B point to be MIN .618 retrace of XA. And also that C point retrace of AB is just too shallow. But that 4HR butterfly is completely valid. Another guy pointed that out to me and I checked it out and yes, it is a good one to take a LONG trade on. I just took this LONG trade based on the 70 cents level though.
I agree that a major trend reversal could be in the wind. We are at a major support level from 2003, and if we go lower then we will be targeting the mid/low 60s. I think it is more likely that we will make our way north in the medium/long term. In the interm though I am targeting bearish swings on the short term charts as I think there is more ranging to be done before a full on reversal.
EverythingForex MightySunfish
There is an alternate scenario that I am working on that has prices targeting the 60's which I think is very likely. A bounce from this level may be only temporary as I had stated in my post. As AUDUSD is a commodity-based currency, it correlates highly with USDCAD and crude/copper. I don't trade on correlations but for these 2 pairs, correlations with commodities can't be ignored. Crude is still going south some more and thus will be sending USDCAD higher. Possibly to new highs. Thus, this pair in correlation to USDCAD and copper, could still have room to drop. Therefore, I am in the camp that believes there is more downside. Major trend change will occur. Just not sure when. But soon.
+1 Reply
SkyrEk EverythingForex
Hey there, something to take note of as well. Start of Sept, it opens below a trendline on the monthly chart dated as far back as 2001. Hence, i believe every upside movement is definitely corrective instead of a major trend change. :)
Yes, I'm very aware that this pair may be heading more south. Maybe much more. As in this MONTHLY chart I posted 5 days ago in my last overall analysis post, I think eventually prices may head as far south as 62 cents where it meets a potential bullish crab and major structures. So although my headline reads "MAJOR TREND CHANGE", I am saying that as a possibility AND also that from 70 cents, prices may head up as far as 72 cents. Is that major? Depends on which TF you trade on is my guess. For me, it's not major. For me, a MAJOR TREND CHANGE will be when wave (B) is done and wave (C) begins (see the wave labeling on the MONTHLY CHART below).
+1 Reply
SkyrEk EverythingForex
Got it mate. Happy Trading and may the green pips be with you always !
hi assuming this is just a temporary upside rather than a trend reversal where you should be lookign at for TP?
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