The Aussie has a slightly bullish/neutral outlook when basing it on the central bank. The USD on the other hand is pretty neutral and is running mostly on the back of sentiment at the moment. Last week Friday Trump doubled down on his comments that tightening monetary policy now would be a bad thing. We also saw Fed's Bullard come out with some dovish comments as well helping the USD decline across the board.
The thing to keep in mind here, is that the market has been fading any move based on trade wars and the question is whether or not this will be the same or if it will have some legs to it.
Looking for one more potential leg higher on the H1 chart. If there is a fall instead, I'll be looking for three legs down (ABC) to get into a long position at 0.7387 with a small stop at around 0.7373 and initial target at 0.7456. If there is a breakout, I want to get in a long position at around 0.7446 with a 25 pip stop loss and an initial 75 pip take profit at around 0.75216.
Risks: Trade war rhetoric hitting commodity currencies, USD strength off any comments, copper falling, watching USDCNH pair to continue to fall. If it continues to go up, then we can expect AUD to fall.
The thing to keep in mind here, is that the market has been fading any move based on trade wars and the question is whether or not this will be the same or if it will have some legs to it.
Looking for one more potential leg higher on the H1 chart. If there is a fall instead, I'll be looking for three legs down (ABC) to get into a long position at 0.7387 with a small stop at around 0.7373 and initial target at 0.7456. If there is a breakout, I want to get in a long position at around 0.7446 with a 25 pip stop loss and an initial 75 pip take profit at around 0.75216.
Risks: Trade war rhetoric hitting commodity currencies, USD strength off any comments, copper falling, watching USDCNH pair to continue to fall. If it continues to go up, then we can expect AUD to fall.