AUD/USD rebounds from 0.7916

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar
Daily outlook - AUD/USD rebounds from 0.7916

  • Contrary to expectations, an impulse created by a release of data on the US CPI last Friday was strong enough to drive the currency rate to the 0.7916 level, where it was eventually stopped by the 200-hour SMA .
  • Since the surge was caused by a reaction on fundamental event, today the buck should try to restore some of the lost positions.
  • For this reason, it is expected, firstly, to target the 0.7861 mark, from which the advance had begun, and, then, the 0.7845 level.
  • This daily scenario is supported by the slightly increased bearish market sentiment, which currently amounts 59%.
  • In addition to that, a summary of technical indicators also send a strong sell signal.
  • Finally, today is a silent day in terms of macroeconomic data releases from both sides of the Pacific.
Aug 15
Trade closed: target reached: AUD/USD expectedly slides to 0.7845

As it was expected, the currency pair has reached, firstly, the 0.7861 mark and, then, the 0.7845 level. Fortunately for the buck, an anxiety caused by the RBA’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes accelerated the fall and helped the pair to even bypass the weekly S1 at 0.7842. However, this impulse was not very high and, thus, no further fall has occurred.

Most probably, the pair will stuck near the above pivot point for some and then, according to a number of technical indicators, will start to gradually climb upstairs. If this scenario materializes, the surge most likely is going to be neutralized by a combination of the 55- and 100-hour SMAs.

In contrast, market sentiment remains unchangingly bearish so as the summary of technical indicators, which for the upcoming couple of hours send strong sell signal.
Aug 16
Comment: AUD/USD tries to reach 200-hour SMA

In line with expectations, the Greenback failed to pull the pair below the 0.7813 level. After reaching this minimum point, the currency rate started to move in the opposite direction.

At the moment, it is easy to note that both 55- and 100-hour SMAs cannot suppress the surge of the Aussie. A summary of multiple technical indicators supports the further soar of the currency rate via sending clear buy signal for the upcoming hour.

However, afterwards, it projects a sharp decline, which is, most probably, associated with a combination of the 200-hour SMA and the weekly PP at 0.7895. Taking into account that the pair has already failed once to bypass this resistance level, suggests that the second rebound is a valid scenario. Moreover, such outcome would be in line with the general downtrend.


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