darcsherry

AUDUSD | Perspsective for the new week

Short
FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar
The Aussie suffered the most on Tuesday after the Reserve Bank of Australia announced its decision to maintain its tapering plans, reducing its bond-buying purchases from A$5 billion to A$4 billion per week. Reaction after this decision is evident on the market as the price rejected $0.748000 to drop 1.81% during the course of last week trading session. In this regard, I am anticipating that the Aussie might turn bearish in the mid-term on a break below $0.73300.

Tendency: Downtrend ( Bearish )
Structure: Breakdown | Supply & Demand | Trendline
Observation: i. The Demand zone which has held price "supported" since the beginning of the year 2021 was finally broken to the downside in June/July 2021 to set a bearish tone on the market.
ii. The line drawn above pivot highs is a visual representation that reveals the prevailing direction of price action since May 2021 and it appears price will continue to respect this line considering the current market structure.
iii. This been said, it is pertinent that I state here that the early hours/days of the new week might see a price climb to test either the Trendline (forming a Double Top ) or extend beyond to reject Key zone at around $0.75300 and $0.76000 ( 61.8% retracement of Impulse leg) to incite a risk of further decline in price.
iv. And it is possible that this declination might transpose into a Harmonic pattern (AB = CD) with parameters explained below;
a. Impulse A-to-B is expected to be in harmony with the potential C-to-D leg.
b. The B- to-C is currently at a 50% retracement with the possibility of extending into 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the A-to-B leg.
c. The C-to-D leg is expected to fall within 127.2 - 1.414% Fib. ext. of the A-to-B leg @ around $0.68800.
v. So, at this juncture patience is indeed required as the market open will help us determine when it is most appropriate to hop in the decline train.
NB: Below Key level appears to be the safest area to take on a short position... Trade consciously!😊
Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 350 pips.
Risk/Reward: 1:5
Potential Duration: 10 to 20days

NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe.

Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored.


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Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.