4xForecaster

#Aussie Hit Target @ 0.87038; Potential Retrace To 0.90941 $AUD

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar
Friends,


$AUSUSD proved to carry more bearish strength, as price moved directly to its primary target at TG-1 = 0.87038 - 24 SEP 2014, and ignored an anticipated TG-Hi interim.

However, at this point, price has returned to the upper half of its bar after hitting TG-1.

A retracement to TG-Hi remains probable, although a higher target at 0.90941 becomes a loftier possibility followng the current completion of a Scott Carney's Bullish Shark pattern, which opens the geometry up to the same author's 5-0 pattern.

David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


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Twitter: @4xForecaster
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08 DEC 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
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$AUDUSD completed WW's Point-5-second; High-probability reversal at its highest:



@tradingview | $AUD $USD #forex
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David Alcindor
+3 Reply
02 DEC 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
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$AUDUSD - Awaiting WW's 1-4 Line validation; Model approximates 0.83848:



via @tradingview | $AUD $USD #forex #RBA
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David Alcindor

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Traders,

A few days ago, pattern completed Point-5 as price reached the 1-3 Line. However, as Bill Wolfe's Wolfe Waves pattern would have it, price pushed further to attempt a yet deeper validation of the 2-4 Line projection off of Point-3. This would effectively define Point-5-prime.

It appears that this level would occur around 0.83848.

Keep an eye on this one.

Cheers,

David
+1 Reply
30 NOV 2014 - Update:


================================
Re-post of a comment that includes this Forex pair:
================================


Hello @kmk.msp - Yes, I posted this a few days ago in here I believe. Point-5 usually needs to touch its 1-3 Line, but a 5-prime or 5-second do not have to occur. The pattern most often completes a 5-prime (I woulD estimated empirically about 60% of the time. Again: Empirically speaking), whereas the 5-second would occur up to/less than 10% of the time, empirically speaking).

Look for weakness in the $USD index ($USDollar) which is the US currency measured against a basket of major currencies. A decline in this $USDollar index will suggest a Forex-wide strengthening of currencies expressed against the $USD.

Instead of the $USDollar index, one could also look at other important pairs where reversal set up could be occurring. Here are a few of them I had posted recently:


$USDJPY - 4-Hour Chart: Here, the $Yen's weakness pushed the $USD to its target @ 188.83. A reversal is very plausible:



$USDJPY - Daily Chart: In this wider chart, a target was defined near 116.xx, falling short of a 5-second point validation:



$USDollar - Weekly Chart: Here, the Index rallied, but surpassed a 11218 target, underlining the strength of the $USDollar, which is most likely animated via the $Yen weakness:



It is widely believed that fundamental problems in Europe and EM will force major and secondary markets to devalue their currencies (something I wrote about several months ago in support of the $USD strengthening), which will reflexively prop the $USD up, since most of these markets are expressed in Dollar pairs.

However, I also believe on a pure technical basis that a relief will need to occur on the Dollar side, in the form of a significant correction (i.e.; a "relief rally" in the counter-currencies).

If this were to occur, it could support the WW completion towards the $AUDUSD's 1-4 Take-Profit Line, as well as prop the $BTCUSD as is widely expected at the moment, and lead to a significant devaluation of the $&P-500, as is expressed in its CME's $ES, since it too reached a significant landmark:


$ES - 4-Hour Chart: ES reached a significant 1.618-Fib extension level at 1074.00:



David Alcindor


(I will cut/paste this reply in the threads where the Forex pairs are)
D.
Reply
27 NOV 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
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$AUDUSD completes geometry at Point-5; Favors Bulls; Target intact:



via @tradingview | $AUD $USD $XAU $Gold #forex
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David Alcindor
Reply
22 NOV 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
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$AUDUSD hit target @ 0.85516; Holds activity up; Eyes rallying to 0.90287:



via @tradingview | $AUD $USD #forex
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David Alcindor
Reply
20 NOV 2014 - FUNDAMENTAL UPDATE:

Major Bank FX Positions


L/T: none

M/T:
- Short: 2
- Long: 0

S/T:
- Short:1
- Long: 0


David Alcindor
Reply
Hi David, Where do you see potential upside target, once it materializes? Thanks, Hamed
Reply
I think it's rocking towards the .90 my friend.
+1 Reply
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