Scottnoveldex

AUDUSD contingency! Two options!

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar
Ok so when looking at the weekly AUDUSD you can clearly see it is in an upward channel starting from 2016.

This is however 'counter' trading when looking at the weekly time scale - it could be that the AUD is in a consolidation channel and waiting for it's next big moves against the USD. Fundamentals will play a key role here due to the AUD being a commodity currency and one that can be affected by risk on/off sentiment. Use the AUDJPY cross if that is something you are wanting to look at!

Anyway you have two options here!

1 - trade the channel which is around 550 pips wide - use EMA's or other indicators if that is your thing to help out with entries - look out for key levels for S&R - .7800 and .8000 the big ones as the first roadblock areas! Manage your risk here and note that the Daily 200MA isn't that far away (160 odd pips). This leads me onto option 2!

2 - Wait for a break of the channel and then a minimum DAILY candle close under the important level of .7600 area as this had major support back in 2015. Also importantly on a DAILY timeframe note the inverted hammer candle as this last week finished. A break of the lower channel trend line is around 140 pips away and the AUDUSD daily range is currently only 50-60 pips! Go for the big levels and wait for candle closes - manage your risk by waiting for some pull back of a big move and there could be alot of space under that lower channel trendline for the AUD to fall.

Keep a note on Forex Factory for important fundamental news for this pair in the next week - RBA policy meeting and CNY news on Tuesday and employment/unemployment news on Thursday!

Trade smart!

Comment: AUDUSD on continued USD strength has pushed under the bottom channel trend line on the 4hr and daily time frame. However be aware that a weekly close would be more reliable.

Trade safe!
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