timwest

SPY getting ahead of itself relative to AUDUSD

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar
960 6 7
This picture speaks a thousand words. JR's chart about the EURUSD             relationship here at Tradinview inspired me to put this chart back into focus. I have published this relationship several times before, but given the extreme move of stocks relative to the AUDUSD             lately, this begs some attention.

Which happens?

1. SPY             sideways and AUD catches up?

2. SPY             falls to get back in line with AUDUSD?

3. Both rise, but AUDUSD             rallies more.

4. Both fall, with SPY             falling further.
Subscribe to my indicator package KEY HIDDEN LEVELS $20/mo or a discount for a year and join in the trading room KEY HIDDEN LEVELS here at TradingView.com
Might want to include silver, gold, bonds in this mix. AUD and gold at one time had high correlation.
Reply
timwest PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
This one is my favorite just because of the tightness of the correlation over the past 4-5 years. I'm always looking for inter-market correlations to give me leading/lagging signals. I particularly like Crude Oil with a 3-6 month lead for the stock market.
Reply
"Crude Oil with a 3-6 month lead for the stock market".. wouldn't mind seeing that chart and how it relates to gold.
Reply
It looks like the AUD is having a nice move to play "catch up"... those who chose #1 are winning so far!
Reply
what a correlation (until mid Jan)...!
I guess AUDUSD is hovering due to the weakening commodities and Gold ?
This chart is similar to me watching SPY/CRB and seems too obvious...

If it's so obvious, why is the market not reacting ?

The S&P is producing a leading diagonal triangle, which is usually warning ahead of a correction and this is accompanied with a negative divergence. Hence
I am expecting thinner air here already since a few days. Being short S&P and long AUDUSD is probably a good trade in either of your 4 cases.
Reply
It looks like demand for AUD is diminishing. Surely last interest rate cuts, dovish RBA rhetoric and all that talk about possible earlier QE end have big impact on that widening gap. Personally i would be keen to sell AU on first signs of S&P sellout. Very interesting chart.
Reply
United States
United Kingdom
India
Deutschland
France
España
Italia
Polska
Türkiye
Россия
Brasil
Indonesia
Malaysia
ประเทศไทย
Việt Nam
日本
한국
简体
繁體
Home Stock Screener Forex Signal Finder Cryptocurrency Signal Finder Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators Website & Broker Solutions Widgets Stock Charting Library Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing My Support Tickets Contact Support Ideas Published Followers Following Private Messages Chat Sign Out