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Alibaba poised for breakout from bearish trend

NYSE:BABA   Alibaba Group Holdings Ltd.
Alibaba is looking poised to run after a quiet breakout from its downward trend.

After easing of some negative catalysts, the investor outlook on Alibaba is looking increasingly optimistic. With Jack Ma confirmed alive and well, Joe Biden's incoming inauguration, and the removal of Alibaba, Tencent, and others from potential delisting threats, the company is looking oversold in a run-up to its first earnings report since the start of its troubles in late October of last year. Alibaba's main e-commerce business remains unaffected, and the growing Chinese middle class will drive continued growth for Alibaba's main business. Continued investment into cloud computing, entertainment, and many other industries allows Alibaba to diversify its revenue and avoid the anti-monopoly crackdown of the CCP, while still remaining one of the fastest-growing large-cap companies in the fastest-growing country of the 21st century.


It's clear from Alibaba's EV collaboration with state-owned SAIC Motor that the company is not going anywhere soon. They recently announced a $5-8B bond sale and upsized an existing stock buyback FROM $6b to $10b, signaling confidence in the long-term presence and health of the company. The drama surrounding the canceled Ant Group IPO has proven to be overblown, as it appears regulators will be issuing a slap on the wrist to Alibaba, and restructuring Ant Group (which BABA holds a 33% share in) to operate more like a typical bank, as opposed to the high-risk, low-collateral consumer lending that has facilitated their rise. Alibaba's transparent cooperation and smooth conduct with regulators will probably earn them more lenient punishments, and the company's critical role in the liberalization of China's economy and their competition on the world stage will make regulators hesitant to kneecap one of their most valuable national assets.


It found a bottom at $210 and has been slowly edging upwards, trading in a range of $220-250 with strong support and resistance at both levels. The higher highs and higher lows found in the past few trading days help confirm this. This week, the ticker has consolidated around $245 for a push above $250.
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