sreebhashyam

NIFTYBANK: Higher and longer

NSE:BANKNIFTY   Nifty Bank Index
The reluctant sell zone, get the reality buy check. Bounces and move past the upper zone of 45200-300. Fin Expiry adds to the spice.

While the close is encouraging, the last couple of days of moves if anything to go buy is lower lows and lower highs. Save yesterday.

The PIP graph is the Intra-day graph. Let's dwell on the overnight cues the CPI. This is relevant not only to the global trajectory on yields and currencies, this also is part of the comments from the recent MPC.

US CPI core services print 0.7%, while the super core (excluding shelter) prints 10.2% YoY surge of 85 bps. This is one of the indicator J Powell watches.

It is usually after 8 months of pause the first cuts unfold, but there are periods when the first cut has not materialised before the 18 months, year 1969 and 1997. This logic can push the first cut to 2025. Not an outright rejection of the probability.

While Asia inflation slightly on the descent, note the easy fiscal and monetary policy means it is only lag effect of inflation to rise again. Europe in the middle with varied, the focus on growth far outweighs the inflationary debate.

What is more worrying this rise in inflation is despite the lower energy costs, Gas as well as Crude Oil. That shakes up the confidence about lower that is near. It is back to higher and longer.

From the Index despite the global cues, it is still stuck in the range of 44000-46000 range, squeeze that you get 44400-45600. Though for the day it is capped yesterday high while 44600-700 is under test.

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