sreebhashyam

NIFTYBANK: "Pause and Press" - Cut to action!

NSE:BANKNIFTY   Nifty Bank Index
Very rarely markets looked for our policy action, it is more less well telegraphed and expected.

Today's one appears to be not in that category. We had two VRR the other-day, excess liquidity? Then there are statements from Banking Secretary, that PSU Banks are losing fast the CASA. Blame the quick gain equity markets?

Markets have in many counters becoming, show a finger, it flies CONUNDRUM.

It boils down that would be the priority of the Central Bank. Surely the exchange rate is not in their minds. That is well managed on a daily basis.

The asset liability grows and gap continues to be huge gap. Governments Fiscal deficit in the recent budget is optimistically lower. There is responsibility to hold the rates and facilitate the Government borrowing at the projected path, while ensuring the banking is not facing the higher cost of funds. Second one is tougher than the first one.

In addition, concerns on unsecured finance, credit card spends, surveillance in banking might be some other concerns. Recent Digital banking and fintech will there be any reference.

While more than the pause, the press conference gets more mileage, markets will look for the tone and tenor. It is once again, what is not said than what is said.

Please note it is not the news, but the reaction to the news that moves the markets.

From TA point of you, it is on the mark whether bulls or bears. The attached graph is bi-monthly. Two more days left though.

A close above 46300 bulls muster the strength, while close below 45300 bears sneak in.

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