BATBTC 1D Bittrex – Wave Analysis
BAT made an intense move yesterday which made me think of the potential wave count to identify entry levels and potential targets. Wave counts can be subjective and tricky and may need to be adjusted along the road however one scenario can be the following.
Potentially yesterday’s move was only a wave 1. of a broader wave III. It stopped at the 0.618 fib level of the previous bearish swing. RSI is above 80 – I expect a pull-back to 0.618 level of wave 1 (RSI to calm down) and watch for price reversal at these levels – this may take days to unfold. This is the 3950 sat level approximately. This can be wave 2 then.
Price can reverse from that level (reversing from 0.618 is bullish) and may go to 6800 level as part of wave 3. This is shorter than wave 1 and so consequently wave 5 will need to be the shortest within the broad wave III. wave.
In case wave 4 would be playing out - as on the chart - a wave 5 can bring the price to 8000 sat level completing the broad wave III. This wave III would be longer than the broad wave I. (blue arrow) so in case wave IV. would not overlap with wave I. a wave V. could develop – bringing the price higher. In this scenario wave III. top is only the 1.272 extension of the previous top and so potentially wave IV. would need to be a slight correction only.
On the mid-term I would monitor the followings carefully:
Price reversal at the 3950 Satoshi level
Price movement and RSI at the top of the expected wave 3 – at 6800 sat level. A more impulsive wave 3 count may mean that the idea might need to be adjusted.
There are some nice fib overlaps –
3950 is 0.618 fib of the wave 1 and 0.382 of previous bear swing and 0.5 of wave I.
6800 is 1.618 of wave 1
Wave 1 top is 0.618 of previous bearish swing
Alternative is that wave 2 corrects to 0.382 of the latest bullish swing (3250 level) which overlaps of 0.236 of wave II. and 0.382 of wave I.
These are my personal views on one potential scenario. Please do your own research and trade carefully with money you can afford to lose!
Thanks for the likes and follows! I am grateful for each!
Potentially yesterday’s move was only a wave 1. of a broader wave III. It stopped at the 0.618 fib level of the previous bearish swing. RSI is above 80 – I expect a pull-back to 0.618 level of wave 1 (RSI to calm down) and watch for price reversal at these levels – this may take days to unfold. This is the 3950 sat level approximately. This can be wave 2 then.
Price can reverse from that level (reversing from 0.618 is bullish) and may go to 6800 level as part of wave 3. This is shorter than wave 1 and so consequently wave 5 will need to be the shortest within the broad wave III. wave.
In case wave 4 would be playing out - as on the chart - a wave 5 can bring the price to 8000 sat level completing the broad wave III. This wave III would be longer than the broad wave I. (blue arrow) so in case wave IV. would not overlap with wave I. a wave V. could develop – bringing the price higher. In this scenario wave III. top is only the 1.272 extension of the previous top and so potentially wave IV. would need to be a slight correction only.
On the mid-term I would monitor the followings carefully:
Price reversal at the 3950 Satoshi level
Price movement and RSI at the top of the expected wave 3 – at 6800 sat level. A more impulsive wave 3 count may mean that the idea might need to be adjusted.
There are some nice fib overlaps –
3950 is 0.618 fib of the wave 1 and 0.382 of previous bear swing and 0.5 of wave I.
6800 is 1.618 of wave 1
Wave 1 top is 0.618 of previous bearish swing
Alternative is that wave 2 corrects to 0.382 of the latest bullish swing (3250 level) which overlaps of 0.236 of wave II. and 0.382 of wave I.
These are my personal views on one potential scenario. Please do your own research and trade carefully with money you can afford to lose!
Thanks for the likes and follows! I am grateful for each!
Comment:
Forming a bullish flag like formation with an RSI above 86 and with low volume. Very interesting. Let's see how it turns. I expect to correct still.
Comment:
So it went higher to complete the potential wave 1 to 0.000058. I see no volume and see RSI bearish divergence. I was shaking off remaining BAT at 0.000055 yesterday and am expecting pull-back to approx. 0.000044 level which is 0.618 of this bullish cycle and 0.5 of previous bearish swing.
Comment:
The retrace was deeper but overall did not negate the wave count. It perfectly tested a few times and rejected the established uptrend line. We may be now in wave 3 of broad wave III. I am still looking for a mid-term target for 0.00065-0.000067 at least for wave 3. For wave III target for the long term? 1.618 or 2.618 or more of wave I.? Price action at those levels will tell.
In regards to wave 3 target there is seemingly a bullish 786 gartley could be identified earlier. With being a continuation pattern and with the overall bullish bias on long time horizon the 1.272 fib extension of XA is a reasonable target. Coincidentally it is the same approx. 0.000065-0.000067 level as the top of wave broad I.
My order have filled at 0.000039 - whilst better levels could be hit a bit later patience can still pay off in the long term.
In regards to wave 3 target there is seemingly a bullish 786 gartley could be identified earlier. With being a continuation pattern and with the overall bullish bias on long time horizon the 1.272 fib extension of XA is a reasonable target. Coincidentally it is the same approx. 0.000065-0.000067 level as the top of wave broad I.
My order have filled at 0.000039 - whilst better levels could be hit a bit later patience can still pay off in the long term.
I am looking for buying at 0.618 correction - BAT is showing strength for further highs however I expect correction now.
Any comments are welcomed!