Hey traders, investors, and speculators,
What's next for BB? That is the question.
It seems that BB is filled with questions. Is it a meme stock (or stonk)? Is it driven by hype, market makers, and/or the beginning of an incredible turnaround story under John Chen? Is it going to be going back to the hundreds or drop back into the single digits and if so when for either scenario? Who knows. I don't know but I have my suspicion that the new bull run that began in February 2020 is only just starting. The bull run that began in January 2021 and now continuing in early June 2021 is just the next step in the fascinating story of BB.
One thing for certain is that Blackberry is becoming a volatile stock. That's a good thing! It means it is no longer a dead stock with a dying company. For all intent and purposes it was for years for the average investor. In my last DD, I made a bull case for Blackberry. I think that still stands. I'm personally more excited for BB! BB is a long favored stock to short sided traders and it continues to attract them. It also continues to attract long sided traders and it keeps making some impressive gains. It also keeps making wild moves up and down. That means it could go up and start making higher highs like it has twice this year and then making higher lows. The upper green line on the 4 hour and daily seem to be support and the trend seems to be making a new base around that higher green line. If this continues the yellow dotted lines are the next upward resistance levels.
Does this mean BB is going to be a 100 stock this year? Nobody knows but it could hit it. It could hit and fall back to prior supports or fall completely out. My best guess is that it will hit really high levels mentioned above then fall back to the 20-30s.
In large part in depends on at least three circumstances that no one including John Chen knows. First, will retail investors keep buying and holding the stock? The hodl mentality (hold on for dear life) is shared by true BB believers, speculators, bag holders (those who bought to high and refuse to sell at a loss), and Reddit investors (you apes know who you are and welcome to BB). Second, will day traders, institutions, and whales (big speculators/investors) use this knowledge to also go long and push up the price of the stock and take profit along the way causing volatility and new highs to test and retest? Third, will Wallstreet elites recognize a turn around for Blackberry and begrudgingly recognize that the stock should be at a much higher price? Again nobody knows and if they do then they aren't telling all of us directly at least yet. The answer to that last one depends on both monetization and investor sentiment which should be gauged in part by the next several earnings. It is interesting that BB is starting to be recognized by the investor experts as more than a cool but essentially defunct phone maker. Yes, I know BB licenced an upcoming Android version with a retro physical BB keyboard but that isn't anything but play money for BB.
My predictions for BB. I think BB is prepping for a massive bull run. It has been in a several years of a transition phase from a legacy phone company to an Internet of Things and Cyber Security company. Mainstream investor advisors are just starting to recognize this transition and the generally negative sentiment is becoming slowly more positive. It keeps building new partnerships and yes at some point it needs to monetize on those new sources. It needs in the short term to be recognized by Wallstreet and treated essentially like a start-up company. That is no easy feat for a company that is decades old.
Mainsteet investors keep flocking to it and it continues making higher highs and higher lows. It is a dirt cheap stock at $16 a share. It is absolutely remarkable that it is trading in the teens currently and has broke 20 dollars several times this year. This will likely cause a continued upward catalyst. Can it last?
It depends in part on investors and the likelihood of expansion. Some other so called memestock like AMC will have a hard time expanding to new areas of business and justifying a sustained higher price. They are using their new found investments to grow their business and time will tell if Wallstreet will consider if their new price is sustainable in the long term. GME on the other hand is working on a new business model and expanding their current offerings. They used the memestock surge to rebuild their brand. BB can likewise do so and like GME it has over the last several years and especially the last two years created strategic monetizable growth in the Internet of Things and Cyber Security sector. BB much like F has gone from junk stock status to a highly tradable stock. BB has yet to get the Wallstreet endorsement like F. If mainstreet turns in mass towards BB then it can continue to build a base that larger players can use to push higher prices and more importantly sustain higher highs.
What would those prices look like? The dotted yellow lines are upward resistance (29.31, 32.64, 42.54, 68.16, 85.17, 125.14, and 149.65) and some date back several years. I used daily and 4 hour time frames to get a taste of recent trades going backwards. It is worth by the way looking at the monthly and yearly charts. BB has already made one amazing bounce back from stock oblivion. Day traders, algos, and professional traders will use those upward and lower levels as keys for both going long and for shorting. Honestly, we all invest in part because we want to make money.
If BB is so great why does the price not just go up daily/weekly/whatever? Stocks always trade in ranges. It had an upcycle made new highs and then retested higher lows. This is exactly what happened to BB back in the last bearish downtrend. Why do big investors/hedges/etc allow downtrends to occur? They use them as buying opportunities. Think buy wholesale and sale retail. They buy at the bottom and when ready move the price much higher. The biggest sellers in the upper teens and 20s were not short sided traders. It was big institutions closing massive positions and making some amazing profits. How did they do that? They bought low and sold high. It was the institutions that are cashing out. The biggest traders like Warren Buffett or Prem Watsa think in longer arcs than the average investor. They buy the dip and sell the rip.
It is my thesis that they are ready to start moving the price higher. Especially if more traders come piling in and buying. If the stock makes it back to the 85-149 range then this huge investors will make absolute killings. I'm fine with that because I want them to get the price to go parabolic be it one week, one month, or one year! So when does it go parabolic and start making these insane highs? Nobody knows and again they might not. Anyone that tells you they know are either lying or delusional. It could drop back to the lower tens or upper single digits. It could also be next Tuesday that it is trading in the 30s and push as high as the 70s. The likelihood of either scenario depends on events outside of the average person's control.
Your job is to decide if you think BB looks like it can not only make new highs but also hold them? My long term thesis is that Blackberry will test before 2022 ends everyone of those aforementioned levels above. It is possible it will test them all before 2021 ends.
It may make insane new highs for a short period like GME and even be trading in the 400s. GME is now trading in a more than respectable upper-200s. It may also like AMC in a relatively short period start to fly to insanely high levels. BB has upward levels to base trades off of which is necessary for algo and professional traders. I personally think we will see BB trading in the 85.17 to 125.14 range. It just needs a catalyst like a short squeeze. Why would a short squeeze occur? Market makers and institutions have the price they are willing to pay or that they will allow the stock to trade in for their predetermined time and they will throttle off buying pressure to let selling pressure increase. They will then purchase shares at the low price, accumulate, and sell high when they are ready to increase the buying pressure. We really don't know how much they currently own. When they are ready they begin a rapid and aggressive buying period that causes the price to go up astronomically and this catches shorts that do not have smart stops off guard causing a cover. One gap up day and a lot of buying pressure and it is off to the races of those higher levels. When the price drops and people bought outside what they can stand to lose causes higher price shares be sold at a discount. Long sided day traders and those that have stops up and down along the way causes price fluctuation upwards as well that are affected by algo trading by big institutions. Is BB currently a short squeeze candidate? Possibly, it is at around 9% of the float. If BB has a rapid break and sustains above those upper 20s and lower 30 levels then things get really interesting. That by the way doesn't need to happen for BB to go higher. Enough sustained buying pressure could send it up as well. What is indisputable is that many traders short BB because they think it can't go any higher and if it did then it wouldn't last.
It is my thesis that BB can not only go much higher and hold but because it is a turnaround story that is only going to grow more profitable and enjoy a much higher premium price in the not to distant future. Look at NVDA and see how it was long undervalued. It has gone from the lower 200s and uppers 100s in March 2020 to over 700 in June 2021. That is about a seven fold increase during a chip shortage. What would a seven fold increase of BB be? It would be a current price of 16 dollars turning into 112 dollars a share. Will that happen? Who knows. Maybe. Maybe not.
Should you buy and hold? Should you short because all this is a bunch of wishful thinking? I can't tell you. I'm not a financial advisor and this is purely for information and entertainment purposes. The question is do you like BB as a stock? Personally, I have my suspecisions on what will happen. I like the stock. I don't know about BB to the moon, or 500K a share, but there are clear upward targets in my mind that seem like a pretty good investment for me.
What's next for BB? That is the question.
It seems that BB is filled with questions. Is it a meme stock (or stonk)? Is it driven by hype, market makers, and/or the beginning of an incredible turnaround story under John Chen? Is it going to be going back to the hundreds or drop back into the single digits and if so when for either scenario? Who knows. I don't know but I have my suspicion that the new bull run that began in February 2020 is only just starting. The bull run that began in January 2021 and now continuing in early June 2021 is just the next step in the fascinating story of BB.
One thing for certain is that Blackberry is becoming a volatile stock. That's a good thing! It means it is no longer a dead stock with a dying company. For all intent and purposes it was for years for the average investor. In my last DD, I made a bull case for Blackberry. I think that still stands. I'm personally more excited for BB! BB is a long favored stock to short sided traders and it continues to attract them. It also continues to attract long sided traders and it keeps making some impressive gains. It also keeps making wild moves up and down. That means it could go up and start making higher highs like it has twice this year and then making higher lows. The upper green line on the 4 hour and daily seem to be support and the trend seems to be making a new base around that higher green line. If this continues the yellow dotted lines are the next upward resistance levels.
Does this mean BB is going to be a 100 stock this year? Nobody knows but it could hit it. It could hit and fall back to prior supports or fall completely out. My best guess is that it will hit really high levels mentioned above then fall back to the 20-30s.
In large part in depends on at least three circumstances that no one including John Chen knows. First, will retail investors keep buying and holding the stock? The hodl mentality (hold on for dear life) is shared by true BB believers, speculators, bag holders (those who bought to high and refuse to sell at a loss), and Reddit investors (you apes know who you are and welcome to BB). Second, will day traders, institutions, and whales (big speculators/investors) use this knowledge to also go long and push up the price of the stock and take profit along the way causing volatility and new highs to test and retest? Third, will Wallstreet elites recognize a turn around for Blackberry and begrudgingly recognize that the stock should be at a much higher price? Again nobody knows and if they do then they aren't telling all of us directly at least yet. The answer to that last one depends on both monetization and investor sentiment which should be gauged in part by the next several earnings. It is interesting that BB is starting to be recognized by the investor experts as more than a cool but essentially defunct phone maker. Yes, I know BB licenced an upcoming Android version with a retro physical BB keyboard but that isn't anything but play money for BB.
My predictions for BB. I think BB is prepping for a massive bull run. It has been in a several years of a transition phase from a legacy phone company to an Internet of Things and Cyber Security company. Mainstream investor advisors are just starting to recognize this transition and the generally negative sentiment is becoming slowly more positive. It keeps building new partnerships and yes at some point it needs to monetize on those new sources. It needs in the short term to be recognized by Wallstreet and treated essentially like a start-up company. That is no easy feat for a company that is decades old.
Mainsteet investors keep flocking to it and it continues making higher highs and higher lows. It is a dirt cheap stock at $16 a share. It is absolutely remarkable that it is trading in the teens currently and has broke 20 dollars several times this year. This will likely cause a continued upward catalyst. Can it last?
It depends in part on investors and the likelihood of expansion. Some other so called memestock like AMC will have a hard time expanding to new areas of business and justifying a sustained higher price. They are using their new found investments to grow their business and time will tell if Wallstreet will consider if their new price is sustainable in the long term. GME on the other hand is working on a new business model and expanding their current offerings. They used the memestock surge to rebuild their brand. BB can likewise do so and like GME it has over the last several years and especially the last two years created strategic monetizable growth in the Internet of Things and Cyber Security sector. BB much like F has gone from junk stock status to a highly tradable stock. BB has yet to get the Wallstreet endorsement like F. If mainstreet turns in mass towards BB then it can continue to build a base that larger players can use to push higher prices and more importantly sustain higher highs.
What would those prices look like? The dotted yellow lines are upward resistance (29.31, 32.64, 42.54, 68.16, 85.17, 125.14, and 149.65) and some date back several years. I used daily and 4 hour time frames to get a taste of recent trades going backwards. It is worth by the way looking at the monthly and yearly charts. BB has already made one amazing bounce back from stock oblivion. Day traders, algos, and professional traders will use those upward and lower levels as keys for both going long and for shorting. Honestly, we all invest in part because we want to make money.
If BB is so great why does the price not just go up daily/weekly/whatever? Stocks always trade in ranges. It had an upcycle made new highs and then retested higher lows. This is exactly what happened to BB back in the last bearish downtrend. Why do big investors/hedges/etc allow downtrends to occur? They use them as buying opportunities. Think buy wholesale and sale retail. They buy at the bottom and when ready move the price much higher. The biggest sellers in the upper teens and 20s were not short sided traders. It was big institutions closing massive positions and making some amazing profits. How did they do that? They bought low and sold high. It was the institutions that are cashing out. The biggest traders like Warren Buffett or Prem Watsa think in longer arcs than the average investor. They buy the dip and sell the rip.
It is my thesis that they are ready to start moving the price higher. Especially if more traders come piling in and buying. If the stock makes it back to the 85-149 range then this huge investors will make absolute killings. I'm fine with that because I want them to get the price to go parabolic be it one week, one month, or one year! So when does it go parabolic and start making these insane highs? Nobody knows and again they might not. Anyone that tells you they know are either lying or delusional. It could drop back to the lower tens or upper single digits. It could also be next Tuesday that it is trading in the 30s and push as high as the 70s. The likelihood of either scenario depends on events outside of the average person's control.
Your job is to decide if you think BB looks like it can not only make new highs but also hold them? My long term thesis is that Blackberry will test before 2022 ends everyone of those aforementioned levels above. It is possible it will test them all before 2021 ends.
It may make insane new highs for a short period like GME and even be trading in the 400s. GME is now trading in a more than respectable upper-200s. It may also like AMC in a relatively short period start to fly to insanely high levels. BB has upward levels to base trades off of which is necessary for algo and professional traders. I personally think we will see BB trading in the 85.17 to 125.14 range. It just needs a catalyst like a short squeeze. Why would a short squeeze occur? Market makers and institutions have the price they are willing to pay or that they will allow the stock to trade in for their predetermined time and they will throttle off buying pressure to let selling pressure increase. They will then purchase shares at the low price, accumulate, and sell high when they are ready to increase the buying pressure. We really don't know how much they currently own. When they are ready they begin a rapid and aggressive buying period that causes the price to go up astronomically and this catches shorts that do not have smart stops off guard causing a cover. One gap up day and a lot of buying pressure and it is off to the races of those higher levels. When the price drops and people bought outside what they can stand to lose causes higher price shares be sold at a discount. Long sided day traders and those that have stops up and down along the way causes price fluctuation upwards as well that are affected by algo trading by big institutions. Is BB currently a short squeeze candidate? Possibly, it is at around 9% of the float. If BB has a rapid break and sustains above those upper 20s and lower 30 levels then things get really interesting. That by the way doesn't need to happen for BB to go higher. Enough sustained buying pressure could send it up as well. What is indisputable is that many traders short BB because they think it can't go any higher and if it did then it wouldn't last.
It is my thesis that BB can not only go much higher and hold but because it is a turnaround story that is only going to grow more profitable and enjoy a much higher premium price in the not to distant future. Look at NVDA and see how it was long undervalued. It has gone from the lower 200s and uppers 100s in March 2020 to over 700 in June 2021. That is about a seven fold increase during a chip shortage. What would a seven fold increase of BB be? It would be a current price of 16 dollars turning into 112 dollars a share. Will that happen? Who knows. Maybe. Maybe not.
Should you buy and hold? Should you short because all this is a bunch of wishful thinking? I can't tell you. I'm not a financial advisor and this is purely for information and entertainment purposes. The question is do you like BB as a stock? Personally, I have my suspecisions on what will happen. I like the stock. I don't know about BB to the moon, or 500K a share, but there are clear upward targets in my mind that seem like a pretty good investment for me.