BCH's path in 2018 depends on the severity of the current BTC -0.79% correction. This applies to most currencies in my opinion. Here are two possible scenarios:
Bullish perspective - market revival end Feb 2018
Bitcoin Cash -0.54% started as a hard fork of Bitcoin -0.79% on Aug 1 2017. Since then it has demonstrated a distinct fractal pattern (red boxes) consisting of two peaks. We have completed two of these cycles.
The chart shows two pitchforks displaying the two trading channels that BCH has travelled. The black channel is the dominant one and the one we are now in. The orange channel is one we broke into during a failed breakout in Dec 2018. I think this "failed" breakout demonstrates the exuberance that follows BCH pumps.
The navy blue line (bottom) is the BCHBTC 0.10% price. I believe that overall the BTC -0.79% market determines the course of all cryptocurrencies. You'll notice that whenever the BCHBTC 0.10% price bounces off the trendline (green box), the price starts moving up on the dollar chart - makes sense right? This is the start of a BCH bull run. Just looking at the BCHBTC 0.10% chart I guess we have about one month until this happens again. This lines up nicely with the 1280 level on the BCHUSD -0.54% chart, which is the bottom of the orange channel. That means if support is found here, BCH will be moving up in the world. And you see that purple line? Well it lines up nicely with the last 3 ATHs.
I haven't gone so far as to actually start believing these numbers yet. They're just too much. In fact that's what makes me somewhat skeptical myself. It's not even hype time and I already disbelieve. But the chart does look nice and shows a nice continuation of events. I guess we all want to believe the party never ends.
Disclaimer: I'm a longer term holder in BCH since Aug 2017 so I'm always looking for excuses to get all warm and fuzzy over my BCH. Take this with a dollop of skepticism at best. I think if the bullish forecast transpires, BCH will break all records this year.
Bearish Perspective - BTC breaks 20 week MA and begins multi-month bear cycle
If BTC nosedives the entire crypto market will be wiped out. Sorry there it is. That's my opinion. BCH will fulfill the bear cycle similar to the end of the first fractal pattern. This could see us scraping the bottom of a very nasty bear period, which could see BCHBTC as low as 0.04.
Here the chart also shows two pitchforks except this time we have a downtrend (red). The pending red box will be a crucial test for us. If we survive then we'll go up to a higher trading channel (see bull perspective), if not we go down to the bottom of the red channel, where WE WILL BOUNCE FUCKING HARD. (Sorry.) I think after this bear cycle many cryptocurrencies will start to come back to life and BCH will see a new 2-pattern bull cycle.
Comment:
Leaning towards bearish outlook for BCH, this correction is not over imo, the bottom is not in