This is another very interesting coin to analyze for a few reasons. The first of which would be the in-fighting between leadership on the protocol, which led to the development of two different projects:
Bitcoin Cash SV (Craig Wright + Calvin Ayre led)
and
Bitcoin Cash ABC (Core Team Implementation; Roger Ver + Bitmain led).
In the chart above, I’ve isolated just how severely the price of Bitcoin Cash was impacted by the entire fork event.
Some may note that the entire crypto market suffered substantive losses over that same time period, but Bitcoin Cash is one of the very few coins to have suffered losses of such an enormous proportion.
Now let’s see what we can tell about Bitcoin Cash moving forward.
Recent Price Action for Bitcoin Cash
What we see above is fairly self-explanatory. Bitcoin Cash’s +170% bounce was enormous to say the least.
This was followed by a -20% consolidation in the price, which isn’t anything crazy and certainly isn’t enough of a drawdown for us to rule out further losses.
At this point in time, I’m looking in the charts to see if there is anything else in these charts that conveys the possibility that Bitcoin Cash may decline further because:
1. Bitcoin looks like its about to teeter over.
2. The other coins in the T10 that we have reviewed appear as though they are about to teeter over as well.
Therefore, it would behoove us to see if we can see any similar signs in Bitcoin Cash.
Balance of Power RSI
Here in this chart the Balance of Power RSI is reflecting that there has been a continuous, yet steady sell off during the consolidation period for Bitcoin Cash on the daily resolution.
This is definitely something to pay attention to, but it does not quite mean to dump your bags and start running for the hills just yet.
Relative Strength Index (14) for Bitcoin Cash
As one can see, the value of the RSI(14) for the past few periods has been ambiguous, to say the least. Its almost moving in a straight line sideways!
So, let’s go ahead and move to a smaller time frame to get a better idea of what $BCH is going to do in the immediate-term, because there’s nothing that we can determine from what we’re seeing on the daily resolution.
We aren’t seeing anything too concrete for the RSI(14) on the H8 resolution for Bitcoin Cash either. There’s still the same sideways moving pattern.
Let’s go ahead and move even further down to the H4 resolution.
The RSI(14) is showing us progressively higher lows on the H4 resolution.
However, this is nearing ever closer to the overbought territory. Its at 46.39 as of right now.
Confusing Fact About RSI
A little known fact about the RSI is that it can be ‘thrown off’ by consolidation because of the relatively small change in values over a given time span.
This is due to the mathematical calculation of the RSI itself.
Overall Trajectory of the RSI on Larger Timeframes
The overall trajectory is undeniably downward. However, it appears that there’s been an impediment in the downward movement of the RSI(14) on all larger time frames, which is obviously due to the fact that the price has been moving sideways for the past couple of weeks.
Most Likely Point of Support
The first support point listed in the chart above is a pretty reasonable first point of support for the price to reach.
Therefore, given the prediction that the overall trajectory of Bitcoin Cash will head south, let’s create a R/R for this idea:
Bitcoin Cash SV (Craig Wright + Calvin Ayre led)
and
Bitcoin Cash ABC (Core Team Implementation; Roger Ver + Bitmain led).
In the chart above, I’ve isolated just how severely the price of Bitcoin Cash was impacted by the entire fork event.
Some may note that the entire crypto market suffered substantive losses over that same time period, but Bitcoin Cash is one of the very few coins to have suffered losses of such an enormous proportion.
Now let’s see what we can tell about Bitcoin Cash moving forward.
Recent Price Action for Bitcoin Cash
What we see above is fairly self-explanatory. Bitcoin Cash’s +170% bounce was enormous to say the least.
This was followed by a -20% consolidation in the price, which isn’t anything crazy and certainly isn’t enough of a drawdown for us to rule out further losses.
At this point in time, I’m looking in the charts to see if there is anything else in these charts that conveys the possibility that Bitcoin Cash may decline further because:
1. Bitcoin looks like its about to teeter over.
2. The other coins in the T10 that we have reviewed appear as though they are about to teeter over as well.
Therefore, it would behoove us to see if we can see any similar signs in Bitcoin Cash.
Balance of Power RSI
Here in this chart the Balance of Power RSI is reflecting that there has been a continuous, yet steady sell off during the consolidation period for Bitcoin Cash on the daily resolution.
This is definitely something to pay attention to, but it does not quite mean to dump your bags and start running for the hills just yet.
Relative Strength Index (14) for Bitcoin Cash
As one can see, the value of the RSI(14) for the past few periods has been ambiguous, to say the least. Its almost moving in a straight line sideways!
So, let’s go ahead and move to a smaller time frame to get a better idea of what $BCH is going to do in the immediate-term, because there’s nothing that we can determine from what we’re seeing on the daily resolution.
We aren’t seeing anything too concrete for the RSI(14) on the H8 resolution for Bitcoin Cash either. There’s still the same sideways moving pattern.
Let’s go ahead and move even further down to the H4 resolution.
The RSI(14) is showing us progressively higher lows on the H4 resolution.
However, this is nearing ever closer to the overbought territory. Its at 46.39 as of right now.
Confusing Fact About RSI
A little known fact about the RSI is that it can be ‘thrown off’ by consolidation because of the relatively small change in values over a given time span.
This is due to the mathematical calculation of the RSI itself.
Overall Trajectory of the RSI on Larger Timeframes
The overall trajectory is undeniably downward. However, it appears that there’s been an impediment in the downward movement of the RSI(14) on all larger time frames, which is obviously due to the fact that the price has been moving sideways for the past couple of weeks.
Most Likely Point of Support
The first support point listed in the chart above is a pretty reasonable first point of support for the price to reach.
Therefore, given the prediction that the overall trajectory of Bitcoin Cash will head south, let’s create a R/R for this idea:
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Twitter = twitter.com/librehash
Website = librehash.org
GIt = git.librehash.com
Docs = docs.libreahsh.com