semasters

Potential Impulsive and Explosive 5th Wave in BCH

Long
BITFINEX:BCHUSD   None
If this pattern plays out, BCH is going to turn some heads. I'm posting this a few days early as Wave 4 is not fully developed; but this is a trade you really want to be ready for if you see what I see. There's a potential 150% to 400% return in a matter of a few weeks. To complete the pattern Wave E of 4 needs to complete by doing at least a partial retrace towards Point E (the end of Wave E). Then, the red trendline needs to be broken to the upside; and Bingo, you should be in with a stop beneath point E. The risk reward is 6.4:1 to 16.4:1. The $ risk is just over $300 per BCH.

If Point C is violated to the downside, the pattern is void. If Wave 4 does not fully develop with subwave E in the Triangle, meaning that it just breaks (perhaps by the time you read this) to the upside, then it may still be a great trade, but it's not the pattern we are looking for. If it turns out to be a great trade without pattern completion, no worries, we'll find a great spot to get in along the way.
Comment: We have 2 plans now. Only one plays out. Original plan and new alternate plan.

see:
Comment: Both plans still in play. if 1777 breaks before Wave E forms, then alternate is in effect. In that case, beware of a false break thru 1777 and a hook back to the red trendline. Stops should be beneath point C. If too much risk for you, wait for original plan. In any case, will post follow on spot to get in above 1777 if one develops.

Comment: If you are convinced that alternate plan is the proper interpretation, and you want to get in, then you are not wrong if you get in now with a stop below point C. The red trendline has broken after the alternate pattern completed at the red Point E.
Comment: There is a lower risk alternate plan buy option now that the market hooked back to the support of the red trendline for the alternate plan. Buy above the shown 2 hour bar high (1617:Bitfinix). Stop options are below Red Point E, or Point C. An agressive stop option is just beneath 1450, the last minor low (if this buy point works, it should not come back to hit 1450, and if it does, it's a very small risk versus the potential reward.

The original buy option (above 1777) is still valid. However, if you believe in the alternate plan, you can enter above 1617.

Trade active: Boom! Welcome to Wave 5!! This trade potentially has a long way to go, so becareful NOT to get out too early. You deserve the coming profits! IMHO, Wave 3 is destined to come out. So sit on your hands if you have to when you look at the trade progress, but don't touch the mouse!
A word on stops. The chart below is updated to show the triangle wave count for the alternate plan, which proved to be the correct one. Both Point C and the blue support trendline are a long way down, and the risk is pretty steep. So I added a new option for a stop just under 1447.60. With Wave 5 in progress, BCH has no business coming back to that point. Use the stop that is suitable for your risk parameters.

There will be updates as required based on new information.

Comment: Hook back to Point B (1777). LAST CHANCE TO GET IN!!!

Comment: See new notes on chart in black

Trade active: Please see new stop options in effect.

Comment: IF WE BREAK 1615.80 to the downside, then the chart below shows a strong buy area. Three stop options are shown and should be used based on your tolerance for risk. IMHO if you choose the least risk stop option, you should be willing to reenter on a break to the upside of the red dotted resistance trendline, after the support is reached.

Trade active: Current high is 3676 (all prices Bitfinix), so we have exceeded the first target of 3160. There is a clear 5 waves up pattern from the 1125.20 low on 12/08. The questions are "Does this 5 wave sequence complete the upmove, or does it complete a higher degree wave 1 of a continued bullish 5 wave sequence to reach the 2nd target at 6164? Or is the market going to just continue up from here?" This is impossible to know, so we won't try to 'know it.'

Based on your own tolerance for risk tolerance and 'need to protect the money', you can take profits or set a trailing stop. There is no right or wrong answer here.
One idea for a trailing stop would be just underneath the low of the day at 2663, on the theory that If the market is going to continue up, it should not make a new daily low (albeit this is the same day).

If the market does continue to correct off of the current 3676 high, the I suggest we monitor the correction and I'll post a re-entry when one becomes clear. For those that have taken profits that will be an opportunity to re-enter to catch the potential move to the 2nd target. For those who rode out any correction, the re-entry opportunity can be used for an add-on to increase their profits going into the 2nd target.
Trade closed: target reached: After reaching the 1st target of 3160 (150% return), the market formed a daily inside bar and then broke that bar low (2823.20 12/21/17 Bitfinix) to the downside. This was the max suggested trailing stop, so this trade opportunity is closed now.

Cryptos across the board are making a correction now, so we'll monitor this correction and advise of a new buy opportunity in BCH as market conditions warrant.

Comments

Very detailed charts, thanks a lot. If we are done with ABCDE, isn't this wave 1 of the next impulse wave? and overall wave 5? But I thought you can see subwaves as part of a large impulse wave. So I can't see 1-5 wave in wave 3. However can see ABC in wave 4. Thanks for the learning on elliott

+2 Reply
Further imkeshav
@imkeshav, I think your wave 3 is too short? your wave 2 - 5 seems like a nice wave 3. Also learning EW!
Reply
Can we get an update please? Thank you for the TA.
+2 Reply
Shhh it’s the biggest bear trap in crypto right now
+2 Reply
AvgJoe2019 Altinvesting
@Altinvesting, :))))))....every rocket ship needs fuel.
+1 Reply
thank you! love your update
+1 Reply
Awesome analysis man, love your work!
+1 Reply
Nice chart. It Broke but then consolidated back. What do you think, going again (from D) or moving back to wave (E)?
+1 Reply
Waiting for updates sir
Reply
semasters Kunalbansal23
@Kunalbansal23, see last update: trade closed
Reply
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