Trader Noxtreme back, going in depth on more coins for you all. I am finding a journal approach helpful for my published ideas so if you are finding it helpful also or if you want to join in PLEASE LIKE, SUBSCRIBE AND COMMENT. We are here to learn and grow as traders so do a good thing and share your strategies and ideas with us.
So let’s jump into it.
BCH weekly is at 50. This is lower than LTC (68) and BTC (57) so, surprisingly, BCH has more room to run. This being said, BCH had one of the largest moves of the top 5 market cap crypto. BCH 108%, LTC 65%, BTC 32%, ETH 29%. These are interesting numbers in themselves but they indicate BCH and LTC ran the hardest, and they have the biggest loss potential if the entire space declines or consolidates. being the lowest on BCH says that it did not take as buying pressure to move this price and I assume it would not take as much selling pressure to drop it either.
I want to quickly touch on the green boxes on my chart. The big green box we are currently in is a price gap from the BCH/ BSV contentious hard fork. Gaps tend to fill quickly in stocks so I have been watching this area for a potential gap fill and then a gap fill reversal. I am not all that experienced with these types of situations but I have been studying them.
The second smaller green box is where I see our extreme pullback potential. This area has seen a lot of price actions so if we get a bear spike there is a chance we could come all the way back between 168.64 and 153 which is tough to even consider when looking at shorter term time frames and a current price of 309.
Lastly we have the 50 week MA coming down to greet us; potentially at the top of our price gap.
Take always: BCH is a wild one. It is thinly traded and your risk reward is going to be greater. We are in somewhat uncharted territory price wise but shows room to run on the weekly and we have less resistance then support at the current price level on most exchanges.
On the BCH daily I am again seeing more signs then . First one being 12MA is about to cross the 200MA and the price hit the 200, briefly consolidated, then pushed right through, creating a little support there (white line). Bears are looking at the of 79 and how easily this one moves but if I were able to short I would be looking for the gap fill reversal over a short here. We also have a big, (somewhat) symmetrical triangle . Again I think I would not be thinking of shorting BCH here if I was a bear. is declining while price is consolidating up. shows bull needing to slow down.
I am left with these conclusions: BCH is a bit of a wild card and it tends to not do what you expect (from my past experience). I am expecting a test of the top of the gap then a reversal, but again, this one tends to not do what I expect so I’m going to watch for the contrary pull back to the 200MA and then another spike up past the top of the gap and then the gap becomes support. Perhaps even a pull back to the lower green box. Sorry this is more of a gut reaction to what I’ve experienced with this coin but looking for these lower entries will provide better risk to reward. I like to say BCH is a stallion in a world of bulls and bears so I'm going to try and lasso this one from a distance.
Jumping into the 4hr we see our symmetrical triangle in all its glory. It looks like we are trying to hold support on the 26MA. The ranges between lines are big. 17+ % from our current 294 support to the 200 ma cross support we see on my daily. 42% + to get down to our smaller green box and there are only (about 9) supports in that range.
is 56 but BCH does not seem to like being less than 43 on the 4hr since the end of January 19. We see the same swing characteristic here though; when it breaks it really breaks.
Finally our hourly for all the traders out there. Not much to say here that I have not already said for the longer term time frames other then we don’t really have a consistent to play off for entries (look for 43 on the 4 hr ). I’m seeing a lot more wicks on the tops of our highs then off the bottoms of our lows which leans a little . 12 and 50 MA just crossed the 50 . isn’t sure what it wants. We are running out of space in our flag so this one could give us a sneak peak of what the rest of the pack might do.
This is my story and I’m sticking to it. Good luck and be cautious with this one. Stops are needed but VERY difficult to use because it swings so far.
PLEASE LIKE SUBSCRIBE AND COMMENT if this helps you out or you have something you see that I missed.
Next week I plan to look at more BTC correlations because we clearly have significant correlation across the space in the overall macro trend.
Comfortable with a few dollars profit if we fall back down but I am also pulling my buy order at 243 because we now have stops that will trigger if we fall back down past 255 and bears will be looking for that level to break. If we drop lower then 255 I believe we will see sub 200 again but maybe only briefly.
New in depth tomorrow to try and figure out what the week ahead might hold.