Weekly Price Prediction: $78.00 (Min) and $87.50 (Max)
Most of the technical analysis from last week still stands true but I have added a new Fixed Range Volume Profile from the last peak and a resistance line from there as well.
Projected Price Range
The anticipated weekly price range for Brent Crude Oil is expected to fluctuate between $78.00 (Min) and $87.50 (Max).
Contended Price Levels
$81.00 - $78.00 High Volume Node - Potential Support
$81.00 - $83.00 Resistance Lines - potential resistance
$84.50 Point of Control - potential resistance
Technical Analysis
Fibonacci Retracement Breakout:
The price is above to hit the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level which could indicate a level of resistance.
Volume Profile Analysis:
The Fixed Range Volume Profile from last week still stands. As you can see the price went down to the bottom High Volume Node (HVM) and found support.
Point of Control (POC): Identified at $84.50, indicating a level of potential future resistance and good liquidity.
High Volume Nodes (HVM):
Bottom HVM: Signifying an area of good liquidity and a potential support region, preventing a rapid decline from the 0.5 Fibonacci breakout.
Upper HVM: Acting as both a resistance level and a zone where the price has historically stalled after the first peak.
Low Volume Node (LVM): Reflects a lack of liquidity, leading to rapid price movements. Notable price fluctuations occurred between October and November in this region, ranging from $91.00 to $87.00 and back up to $90.00.
MACD and Stochastic RSI:
Last week the stoch RSI (Bottom indicator) crossed over but the price then declined but as you can now see the RSI is showing higher lows and higher highs suggesting there is a good trend of price moving upward. This is further expressed by the MACD (top indicator) not having crossed over yet, but about to, showing a reason for bullish movement.
Additional Factors
Prior Support/Resistance (Blue Line):
Just above the Bottom HVM, a blue line represents a prior support/resistance level. This is now a potential resistance level as the price seems to be reaching there.
Above the price, there is also another resistance level shown by a blue line that's drawn from the peaks of the latest peak to the trough.
Geopolitical Events:
Given the volatile nature of the commodities market, traders are advised to stay vigilant regarding any geopolitical events in the upcoming week, as these events can significantly impact oil prices.
Conclusion
In summary, our analysis reaffirms the high volume nodes (HVN) as robust support levels, supported by the encouraging indications from the MACD and Stochastic RSI favouring a potential upward price movement, targeting the breach of the point of control (POC) towards the low volume node (LVN) level. However, prudence dictates a cautious stance due to the presence of two distinct resistance tiers and the historical resilience demonstrated at prior POCs. Consequently, we've expanded our projected price range to accommodate these intricacies. Traders are advised to exercise caution by implementing tight stops, recognising the market's potential for fluctuations within this nuanced landscape
Projected Price Range
The anticipated weekly price range for Brent Crude Oil is expected to fluctuate between $78.00 (Min) and $87.50 (Max).
Contended Price Levels
$81.00 - $78.00 High Volume Node - Potential Support
$81.00 - $83.00 Resistance Lines - potential resistance
$84.50 Point of Control - potential resistance
Technical Analysis
Fibonacci Retracement Breakout:
The price is above to hit the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level which could indicate a level of resistance.
Volume Profile Analysis:
The Fixed Range Volume Profile from last week still stands. As you can see the price went down to the bottom High Volume Node (HVM) and found support.
Point of Control (POC): Identified at $84.50, indicating a level of potential future resistance and good liquidity.
High Volume Nodes (HVM):
Bottom HVM: Signifying an area of good liquidity and a potential support region, preventing a rapid decline from the 0.5 Fibonacci breakout.
Upper HVM: Acting as both a resistance level and a zone where the price has historically stalled after the first peak.
Low Volume Node (LVM): Reflects a lack of liquidity, leading to rapid price movements. Notable price fluctuations occurred between October and November in this region, ranging from $91.00 to $87.00 and back up to $90.00.
MACD and Stochastic RSI:
Last week the stoch RSI (Bottom indicator) crossed over but the price then declined but as you can now see the RSI is showing higher lows and higher highs suggesting there is a good trend of price moving upward. This is further expressed by the MACD (top indicator) not having crossed over yet, but about to, showing a reason for bullish movement.
Additional Factors
Prior Support/Resistance (Blue Line):
Just above the Bottom HVM, a blue line represents a prior support/resistance level. This is now a potential resistance level as the price seems to be reaching there.
Above the price, there is also another resistance level shown by a blue line that's drawn from the peaks of the latest peak to the trough.
Geopolitical Events:
Given the volatile nature of the commodities market, traders are advised to stay vigilant regarding any geopolitical events in the upcoming week, as these events can significantly impact oil prices.
Conclusion
In summary, our analysis reaffirms the high volume nodes (HVN) as robust support levels, supported by the encouraging indications from the MACD and Stochastic RSI favouring a potential upward price movement, targeting the breach of the point of control (POC) towards the low volume node (LVN) level. However, prudence dictates a cautious stance due to the presence of two distinct resistance tiers and the historical resilience demonstrated at prior POCs. Consequently, we've expanded our projected price range to accommodate these intricacies. Traders are advised to exercise caution by implementing tight stops, recognising the market's potential for fluctuations within this nuanced landscape
Trade closed: target reached:
The price stayed within the range just staying below the resistance lines.
