BTC Monthly chart. Close of this week brings the monthly close as well. Going waaaay back to 2018, on a monthly scale we are still working between the fibs of the 20k drop. Strong monthly resistance at $9500 which coincides with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement from the top. This resistance has been tested a few times already so it may be close to breaking. Monthly 13 (pink), 21 (white) and 50 (orange) EMAs are in bullish formation, with the 13 EMA providing strong support on the recent dip. You'll notice the strong move up in March/April 2019 prevented the 13 and 21 EMAs from making a bearish cross, which was a good sign of longer-term strength. A monthly close above $9500 is very bullish IMO. A 4-Hour close above $10.1k should be good enough to push Bitcoin up to the $10.5k resistance level that has contained price for the last 8 months or so. One more assault at $10.5k should take it out. Closing above $10.5k could vault price as high as $13.5k, maybe slowing down at $11.5k and $12.5k along the way. A sustained move like this would set $9.5k to $10.5k up as a solid support zone, bringing the $20k ATH target into the crosshairs once again. Further bullish tilt can be seen in the monthly MACD heading towards a bullish cross, and in the monthly Ifish Smooth (Fisher Transform) indicator flipping the MA bands to green at mid-Bollinger band support right around the zero line. This could be signalling an exit from the long term monthly bearish trend. See below for ifish Smooth chart (full credit to trader Moe_mentum for creating this amazing indicator).
On the flip side, a monthly close below $9500 brings $8100 into play as a target, with strong weekly EMA support in this area. If that fails to hold, $7k would be the next support area, with possibly a panic wick down to $4.5/$5k over the next few months.
The overall global macro-economic situation puts a dark cloud over the bullish picture, but markets don't need to reflect reality. Bitcoin may be at a critical point in its young history after its 3rd halving. The global economic crisis has exposed some of the many holes in fiat currency and Keynesian economic systems. These systems are the antithesis of Bitcoin, the very reason it was created. More and more people are realizing the many benefits Bitcoin provides over fiat currencies, and the boon of owning a deflationary currency. Fiat currencies will inevitably devalue further with negative interest rates and endless money printing for fiscal stimulation. Hyperinflation may soon be a reality. Bitcoin is not just a hedge against inflation, like gold, it is an entire monetary system in and of itself.
While the macro-economic picture could still bring further downside in the near term, we may be on the brink of witnessing the greatest financial paradigm shift in the history of the world. The sky is not the limit...let's aim for Mars.
On the flip side, a monthly close below $9500 brings $8100 into play as a target, with strong weekly EMA support in this area. If that fails to hold, $7k would be the next support area, with possibly a panic wick down to $4.5/$5k over the next few months.
The overall global macro-economic situation puts a dark cloud over the bullish picture, but markets don't need to reflect reality. Bitcoin may be at a critical point in its young history after its 3rd halving. The global economic crisis has exposed some of the many holes in fiat currency and Keynesian economic systems. These systems are the antithesis of Bitcoin, the very reason it was created. More and more people are realizing the many benefits Bitcoin provides over fiat currencies, and the boon of owning a deflationary currency. Fiat currencies will inevitably devalue further with negative interest rates and endless money printing for fiscal stimulation. Hyperinflation may soon be a reality. Bitcoin is not just a hedge against inflation, like gold, it is an entire monetary system in and of itself.
While the macro-economic picture could still bring further downside in the near term, we may be on the brink of witnessing the greatest financial paradigm shift in the history of the world. The sky is not the limit...let's aim for Mars.