Some considerations on my bitcoin model indicator
If you want to see this chart use the ticker BNC:BLX, weekly timeframe and apply to the chart my last updated indicator "My Bitcoin Price Model v1.0".
As i said in my previous published idea i've found that bitcoin follows 2 gaussian PDF (probability density function) mixed togheter or GMM (gaussian mixture model). In this chart you can see the first one which characterizes bitcoin when big whales or manipulators aren't inflating the price. Bitcoin price follows the centerline of the PDF never exceeding the upper/lower third deviation line as it should be when there is strong homogeneity in market participants ability to move the market.
This is what i think at the moment, the price right now is above the 1st PDF third positive deviation line so i've to conclude that big hands are sustaining the prices after initially moved the quote from the fair price up to the mainline of the 2nd PDF (turn it on from indicator settings and look by yourself). BTW there is not much difference from the 2nd PDF price levels and the overall GMM model (look by yourself turning on both PDF levels).
Here you can see a pic of the 1st PDF plotted on the chart:
https://btctrading.files.wordpress.com/2019/09/1st-pdf-bitcoin.jpg
If you want to better understand what I'm saying I strongly recommend you to take some time to learn Gaussian probability functions on wikipedia. Ask me anything here or on Twitter!
Softwware used is Stastistica v12 (2014) from StatSoft.
As i said in my previous published idea i've found that bitcoin follows 2 gaussian PDF (probability density function) mixed togheter or GMM (gaussian mixture model). In this chart you can see the first one which characterizes bitcoin when big whales or manipulators aren't inflating the price. Bitcoin price follows the centerline of the PDF never exceeding the upper/lower third deviation line as it should be when there is strong homogeneity in market participants ability to move the market.
This is what i think at the moment, the price right now is above the 1st PDF third positive deviation line so i've to conclude that big hands are sustaining the prices after initially moved the quote from the fair price up to the mainline of the 2nd PDF (turn it on from indicator settings and look by yourself). BTW there is not much difference from the 2nd PDF price levels and the overall GMM model (look by yourself turning on both PDF levels).
Here you can see a pic of the 1st PDF plotted on the chart:
https://btctrading.files.wordpress.com/2019/09/1st-pdf-bitcoin.jpg
If you want to better understand what I'm saying I strongly recommend you to take some time to learn Gaussian probability functions on wikipedia. Ask me anything here or on Twitter!
Softwware used is Stastistica v12 (2014) from StatSoft.