danchezz

Bitcoin's 4-year cycle analysis

BNC:BLX   Bitcoin Liquid Index
Not gonna lie 50% correction does not exactly feel like "the bull market"...

1. "Resume the bull market" scenario
By overlaying chart from previous cycle we can spot some similarities:
- market reached 64000 levels little bit faster than in last cycle and got overextended by approximately 15%
- descended to 29000 levels also overextending by approximately 15%
Crypto Fear & Greed Index shows signs of fear and extreme fear for last couple of weeks (usually buy signal)

2. "It was neccessary" scenario
After couple of weeks moving relatively sideways we are due for kings next move, but without serious upward impulse we are on the way to retest 2017 highs, target at 20000 levels
- serious supply/demand zone and psychological level
- also means 70% correction
- late long positions getting rekt

3. "Bearmaggedon" scenario
Target at 14000 level
- 200 week moving average is currently hitting 14 000 levels
- 80% correction (real bear market)
- we still get lots of "Institutions won't allow it", or "Always respect the pump. Let the "pamp" enter in your life" when its really "Brace yourself winter is comming"

And last words for all the hopium addicts out there, if we are in bear market by comparing to relatively short bull run it should not take too long till the accumulation phase starts to play out once again.

Ciao

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