Very interesting trend we have seen in the last 3 BTC crashes from 2011, 2014 and now 2018. We can see from the BLX index that the followed a very similar trend in all 3 where we got our huge parabolic run and crash (Number 1) followed by a dead cat bounce (Number two) and lastly one final leg down (Number 3) We can also see a very interesting trend with regard to levels. If you take the levels the topped at and divide it by 3 it is the same negative number they bottomed at.
The 2011 market is done on a as the market was in its infancy stage and the movements were far more rapid but we see in the 2011 market we topped out at around 5, we then take this and divide by 3 and come out to around 1.66. We see the 2011 bear market bottomed out at around -1.60, very close.
The 2014 bear market we move to weekly as the market matured and became less volatile on a percentage scale. We again see the same trend and when looking into the values we see the market topped out at 195 which when divided by 3 gives us 65. We see the bear market ended at -65.5.
The 2017 bear market again we see the same trend with a parabolic pump, the dead cat and the final leg down. Here we see the market topped at a value of just under 3300. When divided by 3 we expect to see the bear market to bottom at -1100, we are currently at -1000 which does unfortunately means we are likely due another break down on the weekly. I have down below where we likely are.
What’s important to note is that this is just one indicator however the accuracy of the numbers is interesting to me and the is widely used by traders and bots alike which for me makes it noteworthy, I find the likely that when MT. Goxs coins are released soon this will cause the dump that will give us the final leg down.