BNC:BLX   BraveNewCoin Liquid Index for Bitcoin
The Mayer Multiple (named after investor Trace Mayer) is a statistical estimator which can be used for investing strategies.

Mayer Multiple = Spot Price / 200 Daily Moving Average

The 200 daily moving average covers the last 40 weeks of trading and is considered a major long-term support/resistance so it is not chosen arbitrarily here.

The Mayer Multiple delivers a number M > 0 which represents some multiple of Bitcoin's 200 daily moving average, e.g. at time of writing M = 0.9, that is 0.9x 200 daily moving average.

We can see that M rarely goes above 2.4 and in fact, according to the Investors Podcast, M < 2.4 for 91.99% of the time in Bitcoin's history.

Currently M = 0.9 and again, according to Investors Podcast, M > 0.9 for 75% of Bitcoin's history. This means that 75% of the time, the Mayer Multiple was higher than the current value. So on average we can expect it to increase from here with good likelihood.

The Investors Podcast ran a cost-averaging simulation and showed that buying Bitcoin -0.14% when M >= 2.4 did not improve chances of gains. (Cost-averaging is not trading, but is simply buying a certain amount periodically.)

Detailed information is contained here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3IFht_sU... and https://www.theinvestorspodcast.com/bitc...


The Chart

Looking at the chart the Mayer Multiple (M) is shown in green, the white horizontal is the M = 2.4 line and the orange line plot is the 200 daily moving average of the Mayer Multiple itself (not of Bitcoin!).

M has a rising support line dating back to the 2012 bottom. One interesting thing that must be pointed out is that M is now comfortably above its 200 daily moving average. Compare to Jan 2012 and Mar 2015. Remember kids, there is no Mt.Gox! This move above the moving average is bullish but it must hold.

The previous 2015 bottom scored M = 0.4. This is actually extremely rare. Bitcoin -0.14% has only spent less than 0.25% of its time at this level. Likewise the the 2012 bottom is rarer still, in fact orders of magnitude rarer.

What is really noticeable, long-term, is that the Mayer Multiple is moving within an ever tighter range about its 200 daily moving average. The large volatility of the early days is receding and the market is becoming more mature.
Oct 08
Comment: Write some Medium noise on this using Ripple as example https://medium.com/@sunnyday.james/a-str...
Thank you for the link! its super interesting :)
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Awesome! Thanks
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I agree, but the indicators on the bitcoin monthly chart looks bad. Very bad
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@jimo79, Hi, the indicator can be used on all time frames of course, but the 200 moving average only really has significance on the daily chart. It would be possible to make an equivalent indicator for use with other time frames like the monthly. (For conversion of MAs https://www.marketinout.com/technical_analysis.php?t=Moving_Averages_(MA)&id=67)

+1 Reply
Thanks Barclay,


I'll play around with this - looks very promising.
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BarclayJames Conchobhair
@Conchobhair, Hace fun Waccy
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