BNC:BLX   BraveNewCoin Liquid Index for Bitcoin
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This is how I see Bitcoin .

Wave Count

Pre-exchange trading starting in 2009, e.g. 2 pizzas for 10,000 BTC and other ancient transactions, are considered to be part of a separate Elliott wave or as being completely negligible so as not to affect current wave count.

Bitcoin is currently approaching the conclusion of the final wave of this first, large cycle, making the correction Sub-Wave 4 of 5. After completion a large and prolonged pullback in price is feasible.

Bitcoin GoldRushes

There have been until now three major bull run periods: in 2011, 2013 and 2017. The 2017 cycle is still ongoing. Each gold rush comprises of three peaks in a similar formation as the head and shoulders trading pattern. The major bull run corresponds to the ascent of the middle peak.

Wave Bottom

The 0.01 USD bottom on 4 October 2010 is a very special point for the current Elliott wave . It is possible to draw a line from this point precisely to the price dump one week prior to the first two major bull runs. This line does not cut the through the preceding price action at all and is therefore to be considered as a critical support or trendline . The full coordinates of the current trendline are unknown, the line shown in the charts is the best guess estimate with respect to timeliness.

After the Gold Rush
After the peak there will be another failed peak or bull trap. This will be fairly large, but ultimately signal the start of a longer or price-wise severe bear market for Bitcoin as it enters a corrective wave. This bear cycle is indicated by the loss of the critical support or yellow trendline as seen in the previous two gold rush cycles.

My Assertion
Wherever this critical support line is, the price will touch it possible around 7 to 10 days before the start of the major bull run. Depending on the exact coordinates of this support, this may take place in 2018 or 2019. Due to the three peak pattern of previous gold rushes, I believe this will happen in 2018. It is not possible to say whether the price will crash down immediately, or descend gently or move sideways slowly. A sizeable candle shadow on the weekly chart that allows a trendline to be draw to the wave bottom without cutting the preceding price action is a candidate and a good point to buy more Bitcoin .

* This assumes the three peak formation holds.
** Gold miners, including the digital variety, are inherently mad and foolish so do not trust any of them.
Comment: 2011 to 2012 bubble
Comment: 2013 to 2015 bubble
Comment: This is how I'm thinking about Bitcoin long-term. The dates don't really mean anything, what is important is the behaviour in the pitchfork channels. I believe now that we were rejected at the top of this channel (like in the previous Wave I) we will test the bottom of the channel during 2018.
Comment: I should say that there are also more bullish alternatives to this.
About to touch your trendline?
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@Torana75, Well that line is only illustrative. I don't know exactly where it is.
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Also keep in my mind the adoption vs transaction rate in addition to competition/marketshare..thes factor all affects the S curve
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elshanti elshanti
@elshanti, btc had 90% market share also there was a hype being the future of payments and many stores/coffee shops around the world accepted back then..
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wave 4 usually is shorter than than wave 2 also the same applise for wave 3 and 5 ..so you might drag wave 3 top to 2013 april bubble top and wave 5 to 2014 bubble top then the whole cycle becomes wave 1 of the current bubble and its wave 2 dip is the 155 dip and wave 3 20k top ?
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elshanti elshanti
@elshanti, correction : “applies"
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@elshanti, That puts things in a different light entirely. I agree that wave 1 now looks good, but then the current wave 3 is not finished imo. 20k can't be the top because that would make wave 3 too short. Either we are in subwave 4 of 3 or subwave 2 of 3 imho.

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elshanti BarclayJames
@BarclayJames, yes wave 3 is the strongest wave..wave 1 is 3.5 years long and wave 3 is 3 years long .. I have and idea with similar count
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elshanti elshanti
@elshanti, also this
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@elshanti, I think actually looking at the scale of the subwaves in 3, this correction is could be subwave 2 of 3 !
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