The BNC Bitcoin Liquid Index combines the chart data from some of the biggest and most liquid exchanges that trade BTC directly to and from fiat currencies (mostly USD).
bravenewcoin.com/ent.../indices-program/blx
This log chart depicts general support lines using blue lines, and the three large scale market cycles we've seen in bitcoin, as well as one smaller cycle (D) that is kinda more of a large-scale retrace as part of a bigger uptrend, rather than a market cycle in and of itself.
The three green price info lines (A/C/F) show ATH to ATH. Notice how each ATH has increased less (by percentage) with each cycle. This trend may temporarily slightly reverse, seeing our next ATH 1500% to 6000% (as low as 550% I'd say) higher than the last ATH of about $19.5k USD; in my opinion. Ultimately, however, I believe the percentage increase from ATH to ATH will decrease on average over the next couple decades until likely stabilizing to some degree (relatively speaking).
You will also notice the length of downtrends (ATH to cycle-bottom) is increasing with each cycle, understandably so, while market cap is increasing exponentially with each cycle as well; the more money an asset is worth, the more stable (by percentage) it tends to become, and the more stretched out the large scale market cycles become. The current cycle appears to be quite able to capitulate in February, right in line with last year's timing. But it could of course capitulate this month or next, or possibly even in Q2 2019.
After that capitulation I expect a somewhat long and very-slightly upward sideways movement in the market with quite low volume relatively speaking, followed by a heavy increase in volume and short spike in price with a fundamental sentiment of disbelief in the market. Think of people saying things like, "This is just a pump, bitcoin will either die out slowly or stay around this price if it sticks around." This will signal the time for an uptrend. That, combined with a golden cross on the daily chart (50 day MA going above 300 day MA), would be another signal for the beginning of a long and beautiful uptrend. Following the uptrend is a ridiculous increase in market cap and price as large amounts of people FOMO in or get in out of ignorance, hope, and influence from their friends; price goes parabolic. Then we wait for multiple signals for a reversal, of course, and sell according to our exit strategy.
Rinse and repeat.
G shows what a 91.09% bottom would look in our current bear market when occurring in the same 14-month period of the last bear market.
bravenewcoin.com/ent.../indices-program/blx
This log chart depicts general support lines using blue lines, and the three large scale market cycles we've seen in bitcoin, as well as one smaller cycle (D) that is kinda more of a large-scale retrace as part of a bigger uptrend, rather than a market cycle in and of itself.
The three green price info lines (A/C/F) show ATH to ATH. Notice how each ATH has increased less (by percentage) with each cycle. This trend may temporarily slightly reverse, seeing our next ATH 1500% to 6000% (as low as 550% I'd say) higher than the last ATH of about $19.5k USD; in my opinion. Ultimately, however, I believe the percentage increase from ATH to ATH will decrease on average over the next couple decades until likely stabilizing to some degree (relatively speaking).
You will also notice the length of downtrends (ATH to cycle-bottom) is increasing with each cycle, understandably so, while market cap is increasing exponentially with each cycle as well; the more money an asset is worth, the more stable (by percentage) it tends to become, and the more stretched out the large scale market cycles become. The current cycle appears to be quite able to capitulate in February, right in line with last year's timing. But it could of course capitulate this month or next, or possibly even in Q2 2019.
After that capitulation I expect a somewhat long and very-slightly upward sideways movement in the market with quite low volume relatively speaking, followed by a heavy increase in volume and short spike in price with a fundamental sentiment of disbelief in the market. Think of people saying things like, "This is just a pump, bitcoin will either die out slowly or stay around this price if it sticks around." This will signal the time for an uptrend. That, combined with a golden cross on the daily chart (50 day MA going above 300 day MA), would be another signal for the beginning of a long and beautiful uptrend. Following the uptrend is a ridiculous increase in market cap and price as large amounts of people FOMO in or get in out of ignorance, hope, and influence from their friends; price goes parabolic. Then we wait for multiple signals for a reversal, of course, and sell according to our exit strategy.
Rinse and repeat.
G shows what a 91.09% bottom would look in our current bear market when occurring in the same 14-month period of the last bear market.
Comment:
This chart also implies next ATH in 4-5 years.
Comment:
lol just noticed I said "300" day MA instead of "200" day MA. -facepalm-