THE KING BTC chart -BLX, not bitstamp, has the story
TL;DR:
edit: look right for next halving, currently estimated for may 28th 2020
Due to people overwhelmingly using bitstamp for btc price history, early 2013 has been seen as a full bubble rather than part of the bigger $2-$1150 run. This is incorrect.
The more accurate cyclical nature shows 3 stages of bubbling in 3 bubbles, from pennies to $32 / $2-$1150 / $150 - $20k. This is shown as cyclical by:
1. a long period to break ATH again
2. a Mining Reward Halving near the beginning of the bullish part (except for first run of course)
3. healthy run until break of previous ATH, followed by tons of fomo and price markup
We won't see ATH until at least 2020
We will see sub 6k prices
We will see 250k+
If i'm wrong we're still in a bullrun and will see ATH soon, I'll cry tears of joy and we'll make money longing together. I doubt it.
ok here goes:
people go over muh 2013/2014 fractals (myself included, i have several charts doing that) using bitstamp for most history. However, Bitstamp excludes the first bitcoin market cycle, as its price action history starts near 2$ after the cycle bottomed out.
As I went through some old ideas (charts, welcome you to check them out, a few are terrible though), and read articles earlier today, I went to the mtgox chart to see what happened when btc broke previous ath, 32$ in this case for the first cycle.
It took btc almost 2 years to break the 32$ ATH and a crazy markup ensued, much like it took btc about 4 years to break ath on the second cycle and might take another while till we see 20k again.
Marked as vertical pink lines are the dates of bitcoin's past two halvings as well as the forecasted date for the next halving. These are supply shock events, and while not very effective at changing price in the short term (1-3 months) it seems to be a sick catalyst for the bullish/markup part of the cycle where btc breaks its previous ATH.
Another key motivator for my analysis was, where will the bounce be? Where will the accumulation really happen? This is what led me to see that early and late 2013 are part of the same move; BTC retesting the top of early 2013 (150-250) during accumulation should be seen as btc retesting part of the bulltrend, not a previous bubble top. For this reason the eventual ideal accumulation target would be under 5k, maybe even 3k. 3k was a solid top after the first run past previous ATH, and so was 5K so I'm at odds here. I'm guessing we might abuse the entire range.
The other option is we're still in a bullrun part of the cycle and will see ATH soon, and to that I reply you're drunk and I would be very happy to be proven wrong!
edit: look right for next halving, currently estimated for may 28th 2020
Due to people overwhelmingly using bitstamp for btc price history, early 2013 has been seen as a full bubble rather than part of the bigger $2-$1150 run. This is incorrect.
The more accurate cyclical nature shows 3 stages of bubbling in 3 bubbles, from pennies to $32 / $2-$1150 / $150 - $20k. This is shown as cyclical by:
1. a long period to break ATH again
2. a Mining Reward Halving near the beginning of the bullish part (except for first run of course)
3. healthy run until break of previous ATH, followed by tons of fomo and price markup
We won't see ATH until at least 2020
We will see sub 6k prices
We will see 250k+
If i'm wrong we're still in a bullrun and will see ATH soon, I'll cry tears of joy and we'll make money longing together. I doubt it.
ok here goes:
people go over muh 2013/2014 fractals (myself included, i have several charts doing that) using bitstamp for most history. However, Bitstamp excludes the first bitcoin market cycle, as its price action history starts near 2$ after the cycle bottomed out.
As I went through some old ideas (charts, welcome you to check them out, a few are terrible though), and read articles earlier today, I went to the mtgox chart to see what happened when btc broke previous ath, 32$ in this case for the first cycle.
It took btc almost 2 years to break the 32$ ATH and a crazy markup ensued, much like it took btc about 4 years to break ath on the second cycle and might take another while till we see 20k again.
Marked as vertical pink lines are the dates of bitcoin's past two halvings as well as the forecasted date for the next halving. These are supply shock events, and while not very effective at changing price in the short term (1-3 months) it seems to be a sick catalyst for the bullish/markup part of the cycle where btc breaks its previous ATH.
Another key motivator for my analysis was, where will the bounce be? Where will the accumulation really happen? This is what led me to see that early and late 2013 are part of the same move; BTC retesting the top of early 2013 (150-250) during accumulation should be seen as btc retesting part of the bulltrend, not a previous bubble top. For this reason the eventual ideal accumulation target would be under 5k, maybe even 3k. 3k was a solid top after the first run past previous ATH, and so was 5K so I'm at odds here. I'm guessing we might abuse the entire range.
The other option is we're still in a bullrun part of the cycle and will see ATH soon, and to that I reply you're drunk and I would be very happy to be proven wrong!