BLX - "My" BTC Log Curve With EW Fibs & Halving Cycles 😄
Well... The BTC Log Curve has been a bullish favourite pamped by D@ve The Wave and probably many others. And on TV there are MANY bullish log curve charts popping up recently so I thought I'd use it to to share my alternate bearish perspective 😄.
The log curve I think is intrinsic to the BTC cult mentality which is of a perpetual bear market. But is an endless upward path really feasible and does the chart indicate this is a possibility? The answer I think is "no."
For any newcomers - I dont hate BTC, I'm here to be the contrarian to actually solve the puzzle and find the low to buy at the best disc0unt.
But as I have said since March 2021 BTC will hit 20K and now I think is a good time to peer a little further into the distance.
Sooooooo...
Lets look at price action and this log curve then we'll address "The Elephant In The Living Room" against the bullish use of log curve in this area😄. Have a think about it now - what am I going to say? 🤔
Firstly lets look at each of the peaks.
Bear in mind that this is log and so in terms of price the 2020 bull market moved the most, but in log mode it only crossing 3 bands, whereas 2017 crossed 4 and 2013; 6.
And it was also the shortest in duration with the real bull market lasting only 9 months.
...
What appears to be happening I think is that this is a 5 wave cycle that logarithmically is stronger in wave 1 and weaker in wave 5. An augmented wave and a truncated wave 5 could be the f@ncy pants perspective.
Anyhow...
5 waves = an Elliot Wave
And so 5 Cycle waves becomes a Supercycle wave 1 bull market, which leads to a Supercycle wave 2 bear market.
...
Ok so the elephant in the living room. Did you get it? 😄
Yes, there is no halving in this area. And not for a long time either. The next halving will probably be around early 2024.
So if every major bullish phase for BTC happens after the halving, then how is it going to stay in the log curve if that pattern continues?
Well, it isn't. It will fall out below that lowest band. 😄
And this halving cycle works well with the Supercycle perspective because the wave 2 bear market will be longer than previous bear markets because it is of higher degree. A bear market completing towards the end of 2023 would fit well.
In a nutshell this is why the log curve perpetual upward path isn't feasible because Elliott wasn't invited to the party. And now Elliott is unhappy and wants very cheap Bitcoin to wipe out the aggro-laggards. Or something like that 😄.
...
Now lets have a quick look at fibs.
In the Cycle I and III bull markets the topping ratio taken from the previous high to low has been 2.272, and then in Cycle V it was 1.618.
And 2.272 is an important phi number and common in very bullish phases where price moves passed the already bullish 1.618. And this is because it is an additive inverse of the square root of phi: 1+ √(1.618).
This was also the top of the S&P500 bull market, though like BTC it could see a re-test.
Anyhow there are many projections that can be made and it is likely that I will be changing my perspective as BTC reveals more, but I found it interesting that considering BTC likes the 2.272 ratio in bull markets, perhaps it will see one in its first extended bear market. 🧐
A reverse fib projection taken from ATH to recent low would see a 2.272 ratio hit $7.2K.
Considering the way BTC is collapsing and all aforementioned here, this seems like a reasonable final target.
And there will most likely be bounces along the way...
So until then...
See you at 20K 😄.
Not advice.
The log curve I think is intrinsic to the BTC cult mentality which is of a perpetual bear market. But is an endless upward path really feasible and does the chart indicate this is a possibility? The answer I think is "no."
For any newcomers - I dont hate BTC, I'm here to be the contrarian to actually solve the puzzle and find the low to buy at the best disc0unt.
But as I have said since March 2021 BTC will hit 20K and now I think is a good time to peer a little further into the distance.
Sooooooo...
Lets look at price action and this log curve then we'll address "The Elephant In The Living Room" against the bullish use of log curve in this area😄. Have a think about it now - what am I going to say? 🤔
Firstly lets look at each of the peaks.
- The 2013 peak was an explosive blow off top.
- 2017 was a strong blow off top.
- 2020 peak was a domed weak top.
Bear in mind that this is log and so in terms of price the 2020 bull market moved the most, but in log mode it only crossing 3 bands, whereas 2017 crossed 4 and 2013; 6.
And it was also the shortest in duration with the real bull market lasting only 9 months.
...
What appears to be happening I think is that this is a 5 wave cycle that logarithmically is stronger in wave 1 and weaker in wave 5. An augmented wave and a truncated wave 5 could be the f@ncy pants perspective.
Anyhow...
5 waves = an Elliot Wave
And so 5 Cycle waves becomes a Supercycle wave 1 bull market, which leads to a Supercycle wave 2 bear market.
...
Ok so the elephant in the living room. Did you get it? 😄
Yes, there is no halving in this area. And not for a long time either. The next halving will probably be around early 2024.
So if every major bullish phase for BTC happens after the halving, then how is it going to stay in the log curve if that pattern continues?
Well, it isn't. It will fall out below that lowest band. 😄
And this halving cycle works well with the Supercycle perspective because the wave 2 bear market will be longer than previous bear markets because it is of higher degree. A bear market completing towards the end of 2023 would fit well.
In a nutshell this is why the log curve perpetual upward path isn't feasible because Elliott wasn't invited to the party. And now Elliott is unhappy and wants very cheap Bitcoin to wipe out the aggro-laggards. Or something like that 😄.
...
Now lets have a quick look at fibs.
In the Cycle I and III bull markets the topping ratio taken from the previous high to low has been 2.272, and then in Cycle V it was 1.618.
And 2.272 is an important phi number and common in very bullish phases where price moves passed the already bullish 1.618. And this is because it is an additive inverse of the square root of phi: 1+ √(1.618).
This was also the top of the S&P500 bull market, though like BTC it could see a re-test.
Anyhow there are many projections that can be made and it is likely that I will be changing my perspective as BTC reveals more, but I found it interesting that considering BTC likes the 2.272 ratio in bull markets, perhaps it will see one in its first extended bear market. 🧐
A reverse fib projection taken from ATH to recent low would see a 2.272 ratio hit $7.2K.
Considering the way BTC is collapsing and all aforementioned here, this seems like a reasonable final target.
And there will most likely be bounces along the way...
So until then...
See you at 20K 😄.
Not advice.
Comment:
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Comment:
perpetual bull market*
Comment:
augmented wave 1*
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Priority trades, round the clock updates and a 1 hour technical video per week 😼.
Get the "heads up" at critical moments - don't lose your shirt.
$50 per month 👍🏻.
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