This is Why I've Been Long in Bitcoin, But Not Bullish!
My charts are not meant for you to trade off of. These are my opinions, which I create with enormous amounts of research. If you trade based off of the opinions of others, you're putting your investments at risk. So, do yourself a favor. Learn from the analyses of others, but only trade based off of YOUR OWN RESEARCH! If you don't, you deserve to lose every penny you put into the market.
Today, I want to talk about why I believe that Bitcoin is getting very close to the top of this move. First, I would like to draw your attention to the indicator at the very bottom of the chart. That's the Money Flow Index (MFI.) For about the past two weeks, it has been pegged on a reading of 97. There were only three other occasions in the entire history of Bitcoin, where the MFI had a reading this high. Each one of those times, Bitcoin was at a major peak. On average, each time that happened, Bitcoin suffered a correction of 85.33%. Clearly, the money flow is maxed out (in terms of historical readings) and that's not something to be bullish about.
Second, we have the NVT. I've talked about it over and over, and each time the NVT has flashed red (like it is now) while coupled with a maxed out MFI reading, there was an average correction of 85.33%. A correction of that magnitude, would take us down to the 1100-1200 range. Ironically, that would fulfill the hyperwave theory, but it would break the bottom of the rising arch (in blue.) With that said, if the market hasn't bottomed yet, whether the low is at 3000, 2000, or lower, I believe that the absolute low of the market should occur in October. If it doesn't, then that would completely violate the beautiful symmetry of Bitcoin, which nobody but me seems to understand. If that happens, in my view, it would be purely the result of institutions, AI, high frequency trading, and other things that have polluted the purity of the Bitcoin market, which is what made it so symmetrical in the first place. Until I see that happen, there is no reason to believe that Bitcoin wont continue to be beautiful and symmetrical. Hence the reason why I have proclaimed that the bear market hasn't ended yet, and that we should see a low near October. Despite all of that, I still believe that Bitcoin will be enormously valuable in the future. I just think there will be some unexpected pain before we get there.
Third, I want to talk about percentages. When we look at the percentage gains above the weekly ribbon, we can see that during the last bull market, there were several rallies where price pushed about 45-80% higher than the ribbon. Each time that happened, price corrected at least 40%, usually in a reversion back to the ribbon. Currently, price is 55% above the ribbon. So, even if this is the beginning of the next bull market, we are due for a correction of at least 40%, in order to revert back to the ribbon.
When we look back at the last time the market broke out above the ribbon, it was at the beginning of the last bull market. That rally stalled out just before price tested the 38.2% retrace. Currently, we are just below that same retracement level. So, stalling out somewhere around here would be similar to what was seen in 2015, but that is just a relatively insignificant indication. In the short term, we could see BTC test the $9500 level.
Look, I fully understand that I could be wrong about a lower low forming in the market. I fully understand that we may be entering the next bull market right now. There are plenty of indicators to suggest that. However, it violates the beauty of Bitcoin, and for that one reason, I cannot side with indicators that violate the beauty of Bitcoin, until I see that its beauty no longer exists. Despite all of that, there is a way for me to benefit financially, no matter what the outcome is. That is for me to stay long the market, which I have done, with tight stops on my positions. When the market shows that the top is in, I will exit or get stopped out, and then I will remain in cash until I feel that it is a good time to re-enter the market.
Also, the reason why I'm not really publicizing why I believe that Bitcoin will form a lower low in October, is because I don't want that information to potentially change and tarnish the beauty of Bitcoin, by becoming publicly known. I want Bitcoin to stay pure. If for some reason, a lower low isn't formed in October, then we can discuss it. =)
I'm The Master of The Charts, The Professor, The Legend, The King, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-
Today, I want to talk about why I believe that Bitcoin is getting very close to the top of this move. First, I would like to draw your attention to the indicator at the very bottom of the chart. That's the Money Flow Index (MFI.) For about the past two weeks, it has been pegged on a reading of 97. There were only three other occasions in the entire history of Bitcoin, where the MFI had a reading this high. Each one of those times, Bitcoin was at a major peak. On average, each time that happened, Bitcoin suffered a correction of 85.33%. Clearly, the money flow is maxed out (in terms of historical readings) and that's not something to be bullish about.
Second, we have the NVT. I've talked about it over and over, and each time the NVT has flashed red (like it is now) while coupled with a maxed out MFI reading, there was an average correction of 85.33%. A correction of that magnitude, would take us down to the 1100-1200 range. Ironically, that would fulfill the hyperwave theory, but it would break the bottom of the rising arch (in blue.) With that said, if the market hasn't bottomed yet, whether the low is at 3000, 2000, or lower, I believe that the absolute low of the market should occur in October. If it doesn't, then that would completely violate the beautiful symmetry of Bitcoin, which nobody but me seems to understand. If that happens, in my view, it would be purely the result of institutions, AI, high frequency trading, and other things that have polluted the purity of the Bitcoin market, which is what made it so symmetrical in the first place. Until I see that happen, there is no reason to believe that Bitcoin wont continue to be beautiful and symmetrical. Hence the reason why I have proclaimed that the bear market hasn't ended yet, and that we should see a low near October. Despite all of that, I still believe that Bitcoin will be enormously valuable in the future. I just think there will be some unexpected pain before we get there.
Third, I want to talk about percentages. When we look at the percentage gains above the weekly ribbon, we can see that during the last bull market, there were several rallies where price pushed about 45-80% higher than the ribbon. Each time that happened, price corrected at least 40%, usually in a reversion back to the ribbon. Currently, price is 55% above the ribbon. So, even if this is the beginning of the next bull market, we are due for a correction of at least 40%, in order to revert back to the ribbon.
When we look back at the last time the market broke out above the ribbon, it was at the beginning of the last bull market. That rally stalled out just before price tested the 38.2% retrace. Currently, we are just below that same retracement level. So, stalling out somewhere around here would be similar to what was seen in 2015, but that is just a relatively insignificant indication. In the short term, we could see BTC test the $9500 level.
Look, I fully understand that I could be wrong about a lower low forming in the market. I fully understand that we may be entering the next bull market right now. There are plenty of indicators to suggest that. However, it violates the beauty of Bitcoin, and for that one reason, I cannot side with indicators that violate the beauty of Bitcoin, until I see that its beauty no longer exists. Despite all of that, there is a way for me to benefit financially, no matter what the outcome is. That is for me to stay long the market, which I have done, with tight stops on my positions. When the market shows that the top is in, I will exit or get stopped out, and then I will remain in cash until I feel that it is a good time to re-enter the market.
Also, the reason why I'm not really publicizing why I believe that Bitcoin will form a lower low in October, is because I don't want that information to potentially change and tarnish the beauty of Bitcoin, by becoming publicly known. I want Bitcoin to stay pure. If for some reason, a lower low isn't formed in October, then we can discuss it. =)
I'm The Master of The Charts, The Professor, The Legend, The King, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-
