An analysis of bitcoin price cycles and halvenings
It's no mystery that bitcoin in its current cycle is nothing like the bear market of 2014/15.
Instead of a clear period of accumulation at very low price levels, it has taken off into what many would call a bull market.
- So where do we go from here?
At this point anything could happen, but before we get ahead of ourselves it's good to take a look to see what we can find.
On the weekly chart for bitcoin there is a key RSI level at 42.5 that shows when we're clearly heading to the bottom of the bear cycle.
We can see it act as resistance after falling through in the 2015 bear market.
- Will we break back below this level? It's definitely possible.
The length of time spent under this level in the prior cycle was significantly greater than what we've had so far.
One thing that definitely looks clear to me is the front-running of the halving.
This time everyone was aware of the "one year prior to halving" start to the bull market.
The price levels experienced in July of this year along with the RSI match the previous actual halving in July 2016.
- So what is to push price upwards from these levels? Not much.
Until the halving actually occurs, miners are incentivized to sell while prices are profitable.
The race to the bottom happened, and then we raced to the top.
Most likely we will see a slow bleed downwards for the next 180 days while hodlers accumulate, builders build, and traders trade.
- Bohr
Instead of a clear period of accumulation at very low price levels, it has taken off into what many would call a bull market.
- So where do we go from here?
At this point anything could happen, but before we get ahead of ourselves it's good to take a look to see what we can find.
On the weekly chart for bitcoin there is a key RSI level at 42.5 that shows when we're clearly heading to the bottom of the bear cycle.
We can see it act as resistance after falling through in the 2015 bear market.
- Will we break back below this level? It's definitely possible.
The length of time spent under this level in the prior cycle was significantly greater than what we've had so far.
One thing that definitely looks clear to me is the front-running of the halving.
This time everyone was aware of the "one year prior to halving" start to the bull market.
The price levels experienced in July of this year along with the RSI match the previous actual halving in July 2016.
- So what is to push price upwards from these levels? Not much.
Until the halving actually occurs, miners are incentivized to sell while prices are profitable.
The race to the bottom happened, and then we raced to the top.
Most likely we will see a slow bleed downwards for the next 180 days while hodlers accumulate, builders build, and traders trade.
- Bohr
Comment:
Send it to $450,000