Second Rounded Top in Bitcoin History Hints At New Low Target
I recently wrote an article for a major crypto media outlet, regarding a popular crypto fund manager who asked 'If the Black Thursday shakeout from $10,000 to $3,800 didn't break the conviction of Bitcoin holders, then what will?'
I myself am a long term Bitcoin bull. There is no asset I am more bullish on. I fully expect it to reach prices upward of $100K per BTC, eventually.
However, after watching this irrational market for years, I cannot rule out anything.
In my article, I offered up potential ideas on what could break the conviction of Bitcoin bulls. And it was predicated on a lower low. I used hyperwave theory as just an example of one of many theories that still point to such lows in the future of BTC.
I was mocked for offering up any alternative theory outside of "its going to the moon". This is the biggest thing the crypto market has going against it. Everyone is bullish. Everyone is so sure it could never go to another low. Just like everyone was so sure $6K would never break, and so sure each time BTC goes over $10,000 is "the last time we'll ever see four digit BTC" then it immediately crashes back to that.
Even the fund managers making up this market, who should be more unbiased and prepared for anything, due to their high level of knowledge and expertise, but they too have bullish blinders.
I am in no way saying this "idea" which is all that this is, will come true. The charts only show one other significant rounded top in Bitcoin's history, and it was followed by a 72% drop.
We can only tell if this current price action is a top in hindsight, however, if it is, after a lower high and lower low on weekly price charts, another lower low could follow. And if it does, a break below the previous bottom cannot be ruled out. It also may be the one thing that finally breaks all this bullish conviction and presents the asset class with a real opportunity to grow into a sustainable uptrend again.
I myself am a long term Bitcoin bull. There is no asset I am more bullish on. I fully expect it to reach prices upward of $100K per BTC, eventually.
However, after watching this irrational market for years, I cannot rule out anything.
In my article, I offered up potential ideas on what could break the conviction of Bitcoin bulls. And it was predicated on a lower low. I used hyperwave theory as just an example of one of many theories that still point to such lows in the future of BTC.
I was mocked for offering up any alternative theory outside of "its going to the moon". This is the biggest thing the crypto market has going against it. Everyone is bullish. Everyone is so sure it could never go to another low. Just like everyone was so sure $6K would never break, and so sure each time BTC goes over $10,000 is "the last time we'll ever see four digit BTC" then it immediately crashes back to that.
Even the fund managers making up this market, who should be more unbiased and prepared for anything, due to their high level of knowledge and expertise, but they too have bullish blinders.
I am in no way saying this "idea" which is all that this is, will come true. The charts only show one other significant rounded top in Bitcoin's history, and it was followed by a 72% drop.
We can only tell if this current price action is a top in hindsight, however, if it is, after a lower high and lower low on weekly price charts, another lower low could follow. And if it does, a break below the previous bottom cannot be ruled out. It also may be the one thing that finally breaks all this bullish conviction and presents the asset class with a real opportunity to grow into a sustainable uptrend again.
CoinChartist is run by Tony "The Bull", a level 3 CMT student & technical analyst fascinated w/ Elliott Wave Principle, Hurst Cycle Theory, W.D. Gann, Japanese Candlesticks, & other classical charting methods. Visit coinchartist.io for free TA education!