Although Bitcoin has a very brief history of cycles leading to major highs, we can use Fibonacci extensions to gauge how the price may react at certain levels. In looking at the first two major high to low Fibonacci extensions, we see that the 2.618 extension has marked a top consolidation/correction area in the first two cycles. We can also see that support from this correction was found at the 1.618 extension. We can see that the first trough to peak cycle overshot well beyond the 2.618 extension to the 8.86, but came back to find support on the 1.618 extension. In the second trough to peak cycle, Bitcoin hit the 2.618 extension then came back to find support on the 1.618 extension once again. Now in this 3rd trough to peak cycle, we can see that the 2.618 extension is at ~$46k and the 1.618 extension is at ~$30k. Price has now moved above the 1.618 extension, and is heading toward the 2.618 extension. This suggests the new floor for Bitcoin may well be the $30k area. I am looking for price to correct from the $46k area most likely back down to test the 1.618 support at $30k.
From a separate perspective on the Fibonacci extensions, we are looking for a potential top. The first major peak hit the 38 extension line from the bottom. The 2nd major peak hit the 19 extension from the bottom. Following this same halving of the extension leads us to a price of ~$161k at the 9.5 extension (not shown on chart). The 8.86 extension is shown which is close to this level, at $150k. I would consider this a very conservative target for a peak during this cycle ($161k). I believe a more realistic scenario is that we reach a higher extension (possibly between 38 and 19), but I have gone a little more conservative than that with a 13.618 extension as a more likely area for a top, shown at the $229k level.
So look for a potential pullback from $46k to $30k, followed by a run up to the $229k area during this cycle.
HODL. This is not trading advice. I am not your financial advisor.
From a separate perspective on the Fibonacci extensions, we are looking for a potential top. The first major peak hit the 38 extension line from the bottom. The 2nd major peak hit the 19 extension from the bottom. Following this same halving of the extension leads us to a price of ~$161k at the 9.5 extension (not shown on chart). The 8.86 extension is shown which is close to this level, at $150k. I would consider this a very conservative target for a peak during this cycle ($161k). I believe a more realistic scenario is that we reach a higher extension (possibly between 38 and 19), but I have gone a little more conservative than that with a 13.618 extension as a more likely area for a top, shown at the $229k level.
So look for a potential pullback from $46k to $30k, followed by a run up to the $229k area during this cycle.
HODL. This is not trading advice. I am not your financial advisor.