BOIL ( Natural Gas Futures 3X leveraged) heats up LONG
BOIL in the past month fell from a head and shoulders pattern on the 15 minute time frame
into a trend down which leveled out into a double bottom. Supply is in a draw
down right now as might be expected when gas production is diminished in the middle of winter
while demand is rising. The Economics 101 expectation is rising prices on the futures market.
The chart shows a Fibonacci retracement would take price from its current level to about 29
or about 20% upside if that level holds and more if prices can make a stronger more or
if short positions or puts are forced to closed causing some buying pressure synergy.
The RSI indicator confirms the reversal at the double bottom and adds a bit of insurance
to the risk. Accordingly, I am expecting a 20% in the next 2-3 weeks. Target for 2/3 of
the position is 29 while the other 1/3 ( short squeeze scenario) to run to a target of 33
which is the neckline of the H & S pattern. Taking a look at OTM call options striking
$ 30-31 range. Additionally, I will watch the AI algo indicator for a Sell Signal and reassess the
position at that time given its 90% accuracy at this given time frame as evidenced by
a 2000 candle backtest ( or about 500 hours or 82 trading days). Energy may not be the hottest
sector right now but nor is it the coldest.
into a trend down which leveled out into a double bottom. Supply is in a draw
down right now as might be expected when gas production is diminished in the middle of winter
while demand is rising. The Economics 101 expectation is rising prices on the futures market.
The chart shows a Fibonacci retracement would take price from its current level to about 29
or about 20% upside if that level holds and more if prices can make a stronger more or
if short positions or puts are forced to closed causing some buying pressure synergy.
The RSI indicator confirms the reversal at the double bottom and adds a bit of insurance
to the risk. Accordingly, I am expecting a 20% in the next 2-3 weeks. Target for 2/3 of
the position is 29 while the other 1/3 ( short squeeze scenario) to run to a target of 33
which is the neckline of the H & S pattern. Taking a look at OTM call options striking
$ 30-31 range. Additionally, I will watch the AI algo indicator for a Sell Signal and reassess the
position at that time given its 90% accuracy at this given time frame as evidenced by
a 2000 candle backtest ( or about 500 hours or 82 trading days). Energy may not be the hottest
sector right now but nor is it the coldest.
Trade active:
The contrarian analysis linked here:
Comment:
Nice pop today. took down 1/3 of positions after the pop which tomorrow will be a drop ( Que sera sera) which can be played short or long KOLD
Comment:
BOIL added 9% today popping out of a high tight bull flag pattern. Holding until close of the week for another partial
Trade closed: target reached:
A review of the zoom out of UNG is the supertrend is still down and the recent pop
in BOIL was a correction - micro-trend adjusting the far greater trend down.
BOIL is closed with a substantial profit. Switching back to KOLD and short UNG / UNL
in BOIL was a correction - micro-trend adjusting the far greater trend down.
BOIL is closed with a substantial profit. Switching back to KOLD and short UNG / UNL
Trade closed: target reached:
Gas has ended the correction. I have closed all my natural gas long positions including options in favor of shorting gas
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