60% liklihood of dominance tanking by May for following reasons:
TECHNICALS
1) rising wedge breaks bearish 70% of time, approaching end
2) head and shoulders possibly forming on daily timeframe
3) ETHBTC v.bullish on weekly, good bellweather for alts, impacts BTC.D bigly
FUNDAMENTALS
1) UNIT BIAS:
unit bias, new market participants will feel like they've 'missed out' buying 0.005 of bitcoin. Will look for cheaper alternatives. "sats not bitcoin" argument not convincing to new participants. Brand name is 'bitcoin' not 'satoshis'. No one wants '1000 satoshis' until culture changes.
2) MARKET CAPS:
market cap difference is enormous now between bitcoin and rank 25-100 coins $700bil vs $0.2-2bil. Only a small amount of capital can move these altcoins bigly
3) SENTIMENT:
poor altcoin sentiment from $11k - $42k is bullish for altcoins long-term. Pent up energy is enormous. Bitcoin maxis flexing and arrogant, ripe for slap in face.
4) WEAK HANDS:
altcoin holders have been absolutely crucified from jun 2017 - jan 2021, with brief relief rallies in dec 2017 and may 2018. Extreme burnt hands good for bulls. Weak hands largely shaken out.
5) SEASONALITY
march - may seasonality is historically good for altcoins
6) ETHEREUM + DEFI
many bullish fundemtals for ethereum. Short of a critical big sinking the whole bloody boat during ETH2.0, eth bullishness leads to alt bullishness. Once you've stepped from the 'safety' on corn to eth, why not step again to the s-coin forest? Especially when all your stupid friends are getting rich from defi.
7) INFRASTRUCTURE
infrastructure much better in 2021 for new market participants than in 2017. Easy onboarding, no fiat->BTC->alts, now fiat->alts.
8) POPULAR CULTURE
crypto no longer for 'hackers, nerd necks and scammers' like in 2017, crypto is now trendy. Likely see massive boom of crypto influencers. Investing in crypto less daunting than in 2017, trend is in popular consciousness.
I'm wrong about dominance above 75-77%.
TECHNICALS
1) rising wedge breaks bearish 70% of time, approaching end
2) head and shoulders possibly forming on daily timeframe
3) ETHBTC v.bullish on weekly, good bellweather for alts, impacts BTC.D bigly
FUNDAMENTALS
1) UNIT BIAS:
unit bias, new market participants will feel like they've 'missed out' buying 0.005 of bitcoin. Will look for cheaper alternatives. "sats not bitcoin" argument not convincing to new participants. Brand name is 'bitcoin' not 'satoshis'. No one wants '1000 satoshis' until culture changes.
2) MARKET CAPS:
market cap difference is enormous now between bitcoin and rank 25-100 coins $700bil vs $0.2-2bil. Only a small amount of capital can move these altcoins bigly
3) SENTIMENT:
poor altcoin sentiment from $11k - $42k is bullish for altcoins long-term. Pent up energy is enormous. Bitcoin maxis flexing and arrogant, ripe for slap in face.
4) WEAK HANDS:
altcoin holders have been absolutely crucified from jun 2017 - jan 2021, with brief relief rallies in dec 2017 and may 2018. Extreme burnt hands good for bulls. Weak hands largely shaken out.
5) SEASONALITY
march - may seasonality is historically good for altcoins
6) ETHEREUM + DEFI
many bullish fundemtals for ethereum. Short of a critical big sinking the whole bloody boat during ETH2.0, eth bullishness leads to alt bullishness. Once you've stepped from the 'safety' on corn to eth, why not step again to the s-coin forest? Especially when all your stupid friends are getting rich from defi.
7) INFRASTRUCTURE
infrastructure much better in 2021 for new market participants than in 2017. Easy onboarding, no fiat->BTC->alts, now fiat->alts.
8) POPULAR CULTURE
crypto no longer for 'hackers, nerd necks and scammers' like in 2017, crypto is now trendy. Likely see massive boom of crypto influencers. Investing in crypto less daunting than in 2017, trend is in popular consciousness.
I'm wrong about dominance above 75-77%.