handshaker

BTC dominance outlook - first 6 months of 2021

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CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D   Market Cap BTC Dominance, % (CALCULATED BY TRADINGVIEW)
As we've hit a long-term resistance in BTC dominance, as well as a well-extended price, the narrative for an ALT-season seems strong, once BTC settles into a holding pattern.
Once BTC dominance has retraced to the 100-day MA in early summer, it would likely restart BTC's bull run again.

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Seems plausible, even reasonable and so far you look right. I like the theory too... it's steping out of the usual ruts people sit in.

But...
have you factored macro on this?
The central bank printing presses are really scaring institutions with large cash reserves from huge companies to insurance firms & hedge funds.
No large business/wealth management/asset management/ etc can sit on cash with the Fed, BoE, ECB all printing their funny money.
That funny money is largely propping up equities and buying bonds, here in the UK they are even using it for furlough to pump a property market that should have crashed.
Anyway, there aren't many places to run when the employment figures are so crap and huge commercial losses are coming.
Good investments are running at at least 20% inflation and gold looks stuck.
Bitcoin looks like the hardest inflation beater out there for me.... and it's notable that institutions are definitely buying BTC volume, very surely, I think that's where our price support came from down near $30k.
Only a small amount of the possible institution level money has come through so far but they will all realise soon enough that there aren't any safe places for cash.

BTC has never lived through a cycle with these factors in play.
1) huge global recessions
2) no where safe for cash except maybe gold
3) bitcoin in a bull market

These guys might take a bit of ETH which compliments your idea, but they are 80% (of their crypto investment) on BTC.

If my theory much of which is known facts holds, I question whether yours can... that said I do like it.

I think BTC goes up, old hands keep trying to hedge out their BTC profits to alts but the institutions keep pushing BTC up and it freight trains everything.

My personal opinion BTC dominance goes up and breaks your resistance.

What do you think?
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handshaker mr-blockchain
@mr-blockchain, thanks for the lengthy explanation of your position. No doubt that BTC is the strongest horse, but assets in bull markets eventually need to touch base with the 20weekly ma in order to build buying pressure to make new highs.

I think major impetus from institutions and retail will only take place once BTC has corrected to MA20. This last retracement to 30k wasn’t that, so the two options as I see it is to chop sideways until the ma20 catches up, or a sharper drop if BTC fails to breach its all time high. Under both of these scenarios BTC dominance will likely fall, but if BTC crashes we may see a double-top first.
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mr-blockchain handshaker
@handshaker, thanks for the reply. Sorry I got a bit carried away with my point. LOL

I guess I'm trying to say there is evidence that this buying pressure is different to any run we've seen in crypto before.
I think in normal times I 100% agree with what you said. The world isn't really in normal times is my caution.

Do institutions FOMO. Of course not.
Do they panic if the FED turns the printers on again... maybe.

So as their cash reserves haemorrhages value are they willing to sit and wait?
The macro folks I speak to seem to be obsessed about getting in any way they can, but obviously they are also keen not to run the price up for themselves.

Interesting times... I usually balance my TA with macro, so I'm pretty split on what happens next.

PS: I''ll take sideways and a proper alt pump, I'm carrying a few alt bags from 2017. :)
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How did you get to that?
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