Will we see further retracements in BTC (blue) and the ALTs (yellow line shows alt market cap minus BTC and ETH) before or around the halving? The green line allows us to look back 4 years to the previous bull cycle and pinpoint price action/market structure changes. Of course, looking at previous price action and market structure doesn't always have a high degree of predictive power, but it can act as a guide to temper your emotions and prepare for outcomes that may go against the current sentiment. And patterns do repeat. Again and again... ad infinitum....

Following this technical analysis (which of course may not materialise) on the logarithmic scale, we would see a drop, in market cap, of 30%, in BTC to the trend line...and circa 50% in the ALTS (not including ETH) to its respective trendline. If ETH is included (not shown) with the ALTs, then ALTs would see a 20% drop to the respective trendline. If this does materialise, then this would likely form the foundational strength for the next bull run through 2024/2025.


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