These aren't the bulls you're looking for...yet

So, here it is: my very first published chart on TV - pls be gentle ;)
Sorry in advance for my noobish analysis and language (non-native english speaker here)

Data: BTC/CNY - Houbi - 4h

Even if Bitcoin price is recovering since November 21st, it seems that we haven't escaped the major downtrend yet.
A similar move happened earlier on Nov, 18th (green line) and support broke after getting squeezed between fibonacci & uptrend lines (solid green lines vs. dotted blue ones & colored fibonacci zones).

Momentum: Mom "broke out" with the beginning of the latest recovery phase, but this doesn't mean, bulls are in charge now - The same thing happened on November, 16th and current moves here are far too low for now. To confirm a new uptrend, Mom should at least form a higher high at 125+ PVT confirms this onholding downtrend for now, but we're close to break the line here. Laguerre RSI also shows no movement at all for the past hours.

Conclusion: To escape the ongoing downtrend, Bitcoin needs waaaay more volume and a higher momentum. It's currently very easy for Bears to strike over and over again if uptrends keep on moving as slow and cautiously as in the past days.

That's it for now.
Feel free to comment my charts :)
Have fun!


small change: I noticed that my blue trendlines were too restrictive and too inflexible, so i switched to Fib Fans, beginning on Nov 13th (which seemed to be better aligned to PVT/Mom/RSI anyway).
For now, the uptrend seems to consolidate, but as always: watch out for Bulltraps and check the Fib fans+retracement borders as well as the trendlines for PVT/Mom/RSI.
i don't follow cny but yes agree with you. one more wave down before a bull cycle start take us to all time highs and more
+2 Reply
Great analysis! Keep them coming! :D
+1 Reply
You posted a very likely bearish scenario. Here is a similar but bullish idea by user100000:

+1 Reply
user100000 ChartArt
one more wave down (wave 5) to complete the ending diagonal - currently market is in wave 4 of diagonal and is nearly done!..... prepare to BUY!
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