my first bitcoin chart and attempt at analysis
Hello!
I have made a very fresh attempt at drawing some sort of BTC:GBP chart. I'm sharing it to hopefully receive some constructive / corrective feedback. I'd be very grateful for any help, Thanks!
What I think I've done is:
->Use a 200 EMA (don't know technically why to use EMA over SMA etc, apart from mentioned in some good trading videos). I think this can show long term support and can help indicate trends? We've tested it and tested it and finally recently broken it when the market corrected after parabolic moves. We have popped right back above it so would suggest correction may me over soon, if not already. However, if we go back below it and stay below it we may enter a bear market.
->Use a 20 SMA (I think this one's a bit fancy and goes orange when price is below and blue when above. Again, not sure why SMA technically but picked it up from same video as 200 EMA. To clarify i know how it's worked out but unsure why to specifically use SMA rather than EMA). We are below the 20 SMA suggesting we're in a downtrend (even if a short one). Every other time we've broken it we've popped back over it fairly soon, but this one has been a bit longer again supporting being in a downtrend.
->Use a Fibonacci retracement for the most recent upswing. This shows me where the price action might bounce between - short term support and resistance. I drew from the low feb 6'th to the high feb 20'th. Not quite sure what else I can tell from this apart from if we break the top of the fib's on strong volume (and confirmation from MCAD / RSI etc) this could confirm an uptrend.
->Use a parallel channel by finding the three highs and connecting them, and then a bit of trouble working out where to put the low. I can't really see where two lows both meet the channel so I left it here. So, even though we broke the channel, we've come back in and have again respected the high (long-term?) resistance. If we stay in this channel (RSI is pointing down and under 50) then we can assume downtrend is continuing, if we break on high volume with confirmation from MCAD (switching over, and not listed on chart) and RSI (pointing up and would cross above 50%), and breaking top fib channel then we can look for an uptrend. I would also try to use this channel to scale out at the top of the channel and scale in nearer the bottom (I can't short so i can sell and re-buy to increase my bitcoin position), and reverse for uptrend: scale in at bottom of channel and scale out near top.
Current Hypothetical Conclusion (I am HODLing and am saving up some fiat to put in for trades):
We are liekly in a downtrend, even if it's the tail end of it. Consider scaling out to re-buy lower, but wait for next candle to two to form to see if 0.382 retracement holds. If it bounces consider a buy in, with a target of 0.232 to start scaling out and if 0 fib is broken with all signals mentioned above then hold rest of position and consider opening more long positions, with stop loss somewhere between 0 and .232 retracements.
So if you made it this far through the sticky-tape, cereal boxes and yogurt pots; thanks for reading and thanks in advance for any feedback.
Gav.
I have made a very fresh attempt at drawing some sort of BTC:GBP chart. I'm sharing it to hopefully receive some constructive / corrective feedback. I'd be very grateful for any help, Thanks!
What I think I've done is:
->Use a 200 EMA (don't know technically why to use EMA over SMA etc, apart from mentioned in some good trading videos). I think this can show long term support and can help indicate trends? We've tested it and tested it and finally recently broken it when the market corrected after parabolic moves. We have popped right back above it so would suggest correction may me over soon, if not already. However, if we go back below it and stay below it we may enter a bear market.
->Use a 20 SMA (I think this one's a bit fancy and goes orange when price is below and blue when above. Again, not sure why SMA technically but picked it up from same video as 200 EMA. To clarify i know how it's worked out but unsure why to specifically use SMA rather than EMA). We are below the 20 SMA suggesting we're in a downtrend (even if a short one). Every other time we've broken it we've popped back over it fairly soon, but this one has been a bit longer again supporting being in a downtrend.
->Use a Fibonacci retracement for the most recent upswing. This shows me where the price action might bounce between - short term support and resistance. I drew from the low feb 6'th to the high feb 20'th. Not quite sure what else I can tell from this apart from if we break the top of the fib's on strong volume (and confirmation from MCAD / RSI etc) this could confirm an uptrend.
->Use a parallel channel by finding the three highs and connecting them, and then a bit of trouble working out where to put the low. I can't really see where two lows both meet the channel so I left it here. So, even though we broke the channel, we've come back in and have again respected the high (long-term?) resistance. If we stay in this channel (RSI is pointing down and under 50) then we can assume downtrend is continuing, if we break on high volume with confirmation from MCAD (switching over, and not listed on chart) and RSI (pointing up and would cross above 50%), and breaking top fib channel then we can look for an uptrend. I would also try to use this channel to scale out at the top of the channel and scale in nearer the bottom (I can't short so i can sell and re-buy to increase my bitcoin position), and reverse for uptrend: scale in at bottom of channel and scale out near top.
Current Hypothetical Conclusion (I am HODLing and am saving up some fiat to put in for trades):
We are liekly in a downtrend, even if it's the tail end of it. Consider scaling out to re-buy lower, but wait for next candle to two to form to see if 0.382 retracement holds. If it bounces consider a buy in, with a target of 0.232 to start scaling out and if 0 fib is broken with all signals mentioned above then hold rest of position and consider opening more long positions, with stop loss somewhere between 0 and .232 retracements.
So if you made it this far through the sticky-tape, cereal boxes and yogurt pots; thanks for reading and thanks in advance for any feedback.
Gav.