BTCUSD, on the 3D chart, had a phenomenal green candle crossing the 21 EMA (yellow line), followed by an open and close above the 21 EMA. This is a textbook bullish case. Due to the high volatility of the market, I would start a small position around 9100 and put my stop under the 10 SMA (orange line) at around 8300. Targets are Fibonacci levels, taken from the last swing low at about 7300 to the previous swing high around 14000. My ultimate objective is the 0.382 level at around 11400. However, I would add to my position or take profit (depending on how we get there) at the 0.5 level (10600) and the 0.618 level (9800).
Comment:
The price has dipped lower than the low of the previous candle (to 8960), kissing the 21 EMA. This means we are in the danger zone. I'll leave the stop loss as-is for now, to avoid getting wicked out. Nevertheless, I'm paying close attention and would exit the trade if any time frame 4H or above has a close below the 8800 region.
Comment:
BTCUSD is looking cautiously bullish on all time frames 4H and above. I'm itching to move up my stop loss and increase position size. But with the high volatility on the lower time frames in the past week, I'll continue to practice patience. I need to see at least a 4H close in the 9500 region (or, in the bearish case, a 4H close below 8800) to touch this trade. Tomorrow is the 3D close, which should provide more information.
Comment:
We had a reasonably good 3D candle, touching the 21 EMA and moving upwards from there. Now I would like to see follow-through with another green candle. But as long as we stay away from the 21 EMA, this idea stays valid. Most indicators and time frames that I'm watching confirm my bullish bias. I'm itching to increase my position size, but patience is still king. The 9000 to 9500 area has proven to be very difficult to trade in the last week, lots of nasty wicks in both directions. So there's not much to do here until we exit this area, hopefully on the northern road.
Comment:
Yesterday we saw this exact same idea play out on the weekly chart, strengthening my bullish bias. The weekly stochastic turned above 20 as well, which is also a promising sign about things to come. Today I see lots of bullishness on all time frames 4H and above. The 12H stoch also just made a fresh cross to the upside. Much bullishness going on. It seems likely the bulls are ready to take out the 9500 Resistance level, which would be an excellent opportunity to add to our position. With the 10 SMA (3D) slowly crawling up, I have moved my stop loss to slightly below it at 8588.
Comment:
I'm still in this trade, but the lack of follow-through by the bulls is getting worrisome — the game of wait-and-see continues. BTCUSD needs to break through 9500 very soon. On the other hand, I'm ready to flip to the bear side the moment we close a 12H candle below 9100.
Comment:
I missed the break of 9100, and I'm still in this trade. Shorting from 9100 would have been great. Having missed that opportunity, waiting for the weekly close is the next best thing. BTCUSD needs to close this week above 9000 (Weekly 21 EMA). I'll be ready then to close my long and flip short if it fails to do so.
The lack of volume on this recent down move (compared to the push from 8200 to 9500 in the week of October 21st) is the last bit of hope for the bulls. For now, I'm still long from 9100 with a S/L under the 10 SMA at around 8600.
The lack of volume on this recent down move (compared to the push from 8200 to 9500 in the week of October 21st) is the last bit of hope for the bulls. For now, I'm still long from 9100 with a S/L under the 10 SMA at around 8600.
Trade closed manually:
Exited at 8884, after BTCUSD slipped under the 3D 21 EMA again.
