Are you ready for the last Drop before the new Rally ?

Just a short view of my longer term daily chart. I still expect the price to test the lower end of the trend. I can see prices below the monthly S3 Pivot so the lower five thousands are not impossible.
I think it also depends greatly on the traditional markets, which are on a pretty good Rally with all time highs every day since months. That Bitcoin is going down in this Time is a great sign for me,
as its bringing this new Asset-class back to the 'digital-gold-narrative' which could become a great way to hedge against inflation and stock declines. As Gold and Treasuries also going up with stocks,
they may lose their 'safe heaven position' on the coming Recession so i am more and more confident in building a long term position here with a big bet on Bitcoin as the ‘new safe heaven asset’ of choice.

So technically if we don't close and hold above the monthlöy pivot point here, i think we test the lows of my oscillators like cci, rsi and mfi (put some line there) but if the traditional markets are slowing
and we break above the moving averages we could see higher prices too. So what i do is buying some long term position right now to be save but hold some cash for cheaper entries too so i don't miss out.

Comment:

As we had a major event tonight (USA killed Iranian war leader in Bagdad) we had some major indices decline and a Pushkin oil&gold which also affected the bitcoin later.
As I said, Bitcoin is more save haven asset than major mover so this is expected. If this is the start of the traditional correction, we could have seen the bottom now.

Bullish is the push above the monthly pivot point and the simple moving averages an the 4hrs. Squeeze momentum turned slightly bullish too.
Bearish is the rejection from weekly pivot point, acting as Resistance here along with the 200 exponential moving average. If we get a close above those we can say it’s the bullish confirmation we’re searching. But attention: it’s only valid on working days as we have more and more influence of the (CME) futures trading and don’t want to have an gap that wants to get filled.

Comment:

1hr: all moving averages left behind with a very bullish squeeze momentum trend and a full TD sequential, now going to correct and searching temporary bottom.

Comment:

So we got a close above last weekly pivot and now tested the new weekly Resistance 1. and the 200 EMA acting as support. This is quite bullish I would say, which is showing the impact of geopolitical events like the recent air-strike in Bagdad. This is showing us the improvements in the bitcoin market and it’s importance as a save haven asset. Now my oscillators and the squeeze momentum showing signs of possible reversal from the weekly R1 pivotpoint, the next bottom should confirm the trend. If we stay above the weekly pivot, which is also the 200MA, this is super bullish, if we stay above the monthly pivot it’s still bullish, if we fall below, the weekly S1. Pivot should hold or we may go deeper again.

Comment:

As i said, this unfolded pretty bullish. Now we are sitting on a stronger Resistance between Weekly R3 and Monthly R2 Pivot. there were 1 attempt to test monthly R2 and 3 to test weekly R3, now trading back below them. As futures are becoming more and more important for the market, we have seen weaker weekend trading now, as futures are closed and would produce gaps that need to be closed if we go to far away with the spot, so i don't expect any major breakout before futures trading start again for the week.

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And again, i think no major breakouts on the weeekend, so we will stay in this channel between the Monthly R1 & R2 Pivot Point.
Alts could rally tho

Comment:

Looks like the original thoughts played out pretty well, looks like we finally got our ‚last drop before the new rally‘ now