Assumptions: BTC moving into a consolidation phase with the next halving approaching late March 2024 (Est.) The expectation is that BTC will revisit the upper regression band $50k around the time of halving. This potentially correlates to the timing of the greater US recession.
Marco: Soft to Moderate landing recession
- Fed funds terminal rate 5% with a hold and potential cut late 2023/early 2024
Behavior modeled similar to 2015/2016
- Trading above the 52 week SMA
- Potential retesting of 52 week SMA
- Green, Yellow, and Pink lines outline the 2016 behavior adjusted to fit the regression bands (Red and Green Shaded Area)
DCA BTC Realized Price Log Regression
- Potential retesting the lower regression band
- Mostly trades within the realized regression band (Green)
Marco: Soft to Moderate landing recession
- Fed funds terminal rate 5% with a hold and potential cut late 2023/early 2024
Behavior modeled similar to 2015/2016
- Trading above the 52 week SMA
- Potential retesting of 52 week SMA
- Green, Yellow, and Pink lines outline the 2016 behavior adjusted to fit the regression bands (Red and Green Shaded Area)
DCA BTC Realized Price Log Regression
- Potential retesting the lower regression band
- Mostly trades within the realized regression band (Green)